Coinbase 分析师预测以太坊现货 ETF 即将上市

Coinbase 分析师认为，尽管行业持悲观态度，现货以太 ETF 可能会在不久的将来获得批准。尽管 SEC 推迟了决策期限，且发行人预计会遭到拒绝，但 Coinbase 的研究表明，由于加密货币在美国选举和潜在诉讼中的重要性日益增加，批准的可能性为 30%-40%。由于质押、第 2 层增长及其在 DeFi 中的核心作用，该报告仍然看好 ETH 的长期前景。

Spot Ether ETFs: Coinbase Analysts Predict Approvals on the Horizon

以太币现货 ETF：Coinbase 分析师预测即将获得批准

Despite widespread industry pessimism, the largest U.S. cryptocurrency exchange, Coinbase, remains optimistic about the imminent approval of spot Ether (ETH) exchange-traded funds (ETFs). These investment vehicles would provide investors with direct access to the underlying asset, offering a convenient and regulated way to participate in the Ethereum ecosystem.

尽管行业普遍持悲观情绪，但美国最大的加密货币交易所 Coinbase 对即将批准的现货以太坊 (ETH) 交易所交易基金 (ETF) 仍持乐观态度。这些投资工具将为投资者提供直接访问基础资产的机会，为参与以太坊生态系统提供便捷且受监管的方式。

Timely ETF Approvals Hinging on SEC's Silence

ETF 的及时批准取决于 SEC 的沉默

Earlier expectations that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) would greenlight spot Ether ETFs this month have diminished due to the agency's lack of communication with potential issuers. However, Coinbase analysts contend that the market may be underestimating the probabilities of approval.

由于美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 与潜在发行人缺乏沟通，此前对美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 本月批准现货以太 ETF 的预期有所减弱。然而，Coinbase 分析师认为，市场可能低估了获得批准的可能性。

Coinbase's Optimism Stems from Institutional Interest

Coinbase 的乐观源于机构利益

The analysts assert that the probability of a timely approval is high, despite the SEC's apparent silence. They point to the substantial interest from investment giants such as BlackRock, Fidelity, and Franklin Templeton, who have all submitted applications to introduce Ether ETFs.

分析师们断言，尽管美国证券交易委员会表面上保持沉默，但及时批准的可能性很高。他们指出，贝莱德、富达和富兰克林邓普顿等投资巨头表现出了浓厚的兴趣，这些投资巨头都已提交了引入以太坊 ETF 的申请。

Convergence of Positive Factors

利好因素汇聚

Additional factors supporting Coinbase's optimism include:

支持 Coinbase 乐观的其他因素包括：

• Growing institutional demand for regulated crypto investment options
• Potential litigation challenges if the SEC repeatedly denies applications
• Increasing prominence of cryptocurrencies in the U.S. political landscape

David Han, Coinbase's institutional research analyst, estimates a 30%-40% chance of SEC approval, a significant upward revision from earlier projections.

机构对受监管的加密投资选择的需求不断增长如果 SEC 多次拒绝申请，则可能面临诉讼挑战加密货币在美国政治格局中的地位日益突出 Coinbase 的机构研究分析师 David Han 估计 SEC 批准的可能性为 30%-40%，较之前的预测大幅上调。

Bright Outlook for ETH Price

ETH 价格前景光明

While ETH's price has lagged behind other major cryptocurrencies this year, Coinbase maintains its bullish stance on its long-term prospects. They anticipate a potential upside surprise in the coming months.

尽管今年 ETH 的价格落后于其他主要加密货币，但 Coinbase 仍对其长期前景保持看涨立场。他们预计未来几个月可能会出现意外的上涨。

Factors Contributing to ETH's Potential Upside

影响 ETH 潜在上涨的因素

• Limited supply-side overhangs, such as token unlocks or miner sell-offs
• Growing adoption of staking and layer 2 solutions, which reduce ETH liquidity
• Ethereum's enduring position as the hub of decentralized finance (DeFi), supported by the widespread adoption of the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) and its layer 2 innovations

Technical Analysis

有限的供应方过剩，例如代币解锁或矿工抛售越来越多地采用质押和第 2 层解决方案，这降低了 ETH 的流动性以太坊作为去中心化金融 (DeFi) 中心的持久地位得到了以太坊虚拟机 (Ethereum Virtual Machine) 广泛采用的支持 ( EVM）及其第2层创新技术分析

CoinGecko data shows that ETH is currently up nearly 4.8% in the past 24 hours. Over the past week, it has gained roughly 7%, trading at approximately $3,089.10 at the time of writing.

CoinGecko数据显示，ETH目前在过去24小时内上涨了近4.8%。过去一周，该股上涨了约 7%，在撰写本文时交易价格约为 3,089.10 美元。

Conclusion

结论

Despite its relatively weak performance year-to-date, Coinbase believes that Ether has the potential to outperform in the second half of 2024. The combination of institutional interest, regulatory headwinds, and the cryptocurrency's robust ecosystem positions it for potential upside surprises.

尽管今年迄今为止的表现相对疲软，但 Coinbase 认为，以太坊有潜力在 2024 年下半年跑赢大盘。机构利益、监管阻力以及加密货币强大的生态系统的结合，使其有望实现潜在的上行惊喜。