Celestia (TIA) 代币今天解锁可能会使流通供应量增加一倍，引发波动性增加

模块化数据可用性区块链项目 Celestia (TIA) 将释放之前限制的 1.7559 亿个数据。此 Celestia 代币解锁

Celestia (TIA) is preparing to release 175.59 million tokens that were previously restricted. This Celestia token unlock will take place today, October 30, and is the largest since the project’s launch in October 2023.

Celestia (TIA) 正准备释放之前受限制的 1.7559 亿个代币。此次 Celestia 代币解锁将于今天 10 月 30 日进行，是该项目自 2023 年 10 月启动以来规模最大的一次。

The event is likely to have a significant impact on TIA’s price, given the substantial increase in the available supply. With 175.59 million tokens set to be released, the total tokens in circulation will nearly double from the current 180 million.

鉴于可用供应量大幅增加，该事件可能会对 TIA 的价格产生重大影响。预计发行 1.7559 亿枚代币，流通中的代币总量将比目前的 1.8 亿枚增加近一倍。

As a point of reference, the last Celestia token unlock occurred on April 24 and consisted of 40 million tokens. Following the event, TIA’s price dropped by 16% over the next seven days.

作为参考，最后一次 Celestia 代币解锁发生在 4 月 24 日，由 4000 万个代币组成。事件发生后，TIA 的价格在接下来的 7 天内下跌了 16%。

However, it is important to note that several factors, including market conditions and the specific project dynamics, can influence an asset’s price movements.

然而，值得注意的是，包括市场状况和具体项目动态在内的几个因素可能会影响资产的价格走势。

To gain a deeper understanding of the potential impact on TIA’s price, BeInCrypto has analyzed the available data and consulted with industry experts.

为了更深入地了解对 TIA 价格的潜在影响，BeInCrypto 分析了现有数据并咨询了行业专家。

Celestia OTC Sales May Reduce Selling Pressure

Celestia 场外销售可能会减轻销售压力

According to Tokenomist (formerly Token Unlocks), the Celestia token unlock is valued at $890 million at the current price. Upon release, the total tokens in circulation will be 80% of the total supply.

据 Tokenomist（原 Token Unlocks）称，Celestia 代币解锁价值按当前价格计算为 8.9 亿美元。发行后，流通中的代币总量将占总供应量的80%。

Typically, cryptocurrency projects lock a portion of their token supply and release it gradually to prevent early investors and insiders from selling large quantities immediately after receiving their allocations.

通常，加密货币项目会锁定部分代币供应并逐步释放，以防止早期投资者和内部人士在收到分配后立即大量出售。

When the projects unlock these tokens, they become available for sale, making such events generally bearish. According to this thesis, TIA’s unlock today is likely to contribute to its 14% decline over the past seven days.

当项目解锁这些代币时，它们就可以出售，使得此类事件普遍看跌。根据这篇论文，TIA 今天的解锁很可能导致其过去 7 天下跌 14%。

Amid this, on-chain data from Santiment shows that TIA’s volume has increased to $183.73 million. For context, a sharp increase in trading volume can validate the onset of a breakout or a breakdown.

其中，Santiment 的链上数据显示，TIA 的交易量已增至 1.8373 亿美元。就上下文而言，交易量的急剧增加可以验证突破或崩溃的开始。

Therefore, Celestia’s high trading volume suggests greater involvement from market participants. However, it also indicates rising selling pressure, which increases the likelihood of the downtrend continuing.

因此，Celestia 的高交易量表明市场参与者的参与程度更高。然而，这也表明抛售压力上升，从而增加了下跌趋势持续的可能性。

However, Taran Sabharwal, founder of an Over-The-Counter (OTC) trading platform, STIX, disclosed that some of these unlocked tokens have already been sold via OTC. This sell-off is likely to have contributed to Celestia’s price decline over the past week.

然而，场外交易（OTC）交易平台 STIX 的创始人 Taran Sabharwal 透露，其中一些解锁代币已经通过 OTC 出售。这种抛售可能是过去一周 Celestia 价格下跌的原因之一。

As a result, the selling pressure from this unlock could be less than 50% of the anticipated value.

因此，此次解锁带来的抛售压力可能低于预期值的 50%。

“Heavy amounts of the first unlock were sold to OTC buyers, who hedged on perps, sending open interest ballistic over the last few months. We expect a lot of these shorts to continue winding down, partially negating the spot-selling pressure. This funding reset may be a bull signal for spot buyers.” Sabharwal posted on X.

“首次解锁的大量资金被卖给了场外交易买家，他们对永续合约进行对冲，在过去几个月中导致未平仓合约大幅上涨。我们预计许多空头将继续减少，部分抵消现货抛售压力。这次资金重置对于现货买家来说可能是一个牛市信号。” Sabharwal 在 X 上发布。

The Chart Favors Bears at Time of Writing

在撰写本文时，图表有利于空头

At the time of writing, TIA’s price is $5.05 and is currently below the key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). As shown on the daily chart, the 20 EMA (blue) and 50 EMA (yellow) are around the same spot, suggesting that bears and bulls are struggling for dominance.

截至撰写本文时，TIA 的价格为 5.05 美元，目前低于关键的指数移动平均线 (EMA)。如日线图所示，20 EMA（蓝色）和 50 EMA（黄色）位于同一位置，表明空头和多头正在争夺主导地位。

But since the altcoin’s value is below both indicators, bears have the upper hand. Should this remain the same, then TIA’s price could drop to $4.57 in the short term. However, if selling pressure intensifies, this drawdown could extend more than this, and the token could drop to $3.72.

但由于山寨币的价值低于这两个指标，空头占据上风。如果这种情况保持不变，那么 TIA 的价格可能会在短期内跌至 4.57 美元。然而，如果抛售压力加剧，这种回撤可能会超出这个范围，代币可能会跌至 3.72 美元。

On the other hand, if funding rates reset as Sabharwal envisages, this prediction might be invalidated. Instead, TIA might bounce and rally toward $6.16.

另一方面，如果资金利率按照萨巴瓦尔的设想重新设定，这一预测可能会失效。相反，TIA 可能会反弹并上涨至 6.16 美元。