“谨慎的乐观”正在重返加密货币市场

美国将中国商品的关税从145％降至30％。同时，中国将其自己的125％减少到只有10％。

"Cautious optimism" is creeping back into the crypto market, and it’s easy to see why. Mentioned in a report by AMBCrypto, the U.S. is slashing tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.

“谨慎的乐观”正在重新回到加密市场，很容易理解原因。在Ambcrypto的一份报告中提到，美国将中国商品的关税从145％降至30％。

This compares to China’s own reduction from 125% to just 10%. Both for a limited 90-day window.

相比之下，中国自身从125％减少到只有10％。两者都适用于有限的90天窗口。

Plus, with a potential trade deal on the horizon, it’s no surprise to see optimism returning after months of trade friction.

另外，随着潜在的贸易协议即将到来，经过数月的贸易摩擦后，乐观的恢复也就不足为奇了。

This puts the spotlight on Bitcoin’s [BTC] path to a new all-time high, which according to BGeometrics, got a bit clearer.

这使比特币的[BTC]通往新历史高的路径成为人们关注的焦点，根据BGEOMETIRICS的说法，该路径变得更加清晰。

However, in a world where macroeconomic risks are cooling off, Bitcoin’s use case is about to face a serious real-world stress test.

但是，在宏观经济风险正在降低的世界中，比特币的用例即将面临严重的现实压力测试。

Bitcoin’s use case : Hype or hedge in a post-tariff world?

比特币的用例：宣传后世界中的炒作或树篱？

Since “Liberation Day” on the 2nd of April, when tariff talks first kicked off, Bitcoin has been outperforming stocks.

自4月2日“解放日”以来，当关税会谈首次开始时，比特币一直优于股票。

In fact, it powered through April’s stock sell-off and kept leading as markets bounced back, even after the tariffs were put in place.

实际上，即使在达到关税之后，它也通过4月的股票抛售动力，并随着市场的反弹而保持领先地位。

Take the S&P 500, for example. In the week following Liberation Day, it plummeted 12%, while Bitcoin only saw a minor 5% dip.

以标准普尔500指数为例。在解放日之后的一周中，它暴跌了12％，而比特币只有5％的下跌。

This resilience came despite a $1 billion outflow from BTC ETFs on a weekly basis.

尽管每周从BTC ETF流出了10亿美元，但这种韧性仍在。

This price action clearly cemented Bitcoin’s role as a strategic hedge. Hence, further proving its use case as a go-to ‘safe haven’ in volatile markets.

这种价格行动清楚地巩固了比特币作为战略对冲的作用。因此，进一步证明了其用例中的用例是波动市场中的“避风港”。

But what happens now that those macro risks are cooling off? According to AMBCrypto, if Bitcoin keeps climbing, regardless, it might just prove that its use case goes far beyond the headlines.

但是，现在这些宏风险正在降温，会发生什么呢？根据Ambcrypto的说法，如果比特币不断攀爬，无论如何，它可能证明其用例远远超出了头条新闻。

In short, it’s time to see if BTC is built to last – or if it’s just riding the “hype.”

简而言之，是时候看看BTC是否可以持续下去 - 或者只是骑“炒作”。

Investors adjust to market signals

投资者适应市场信号

As macro tailwinds shift, market repositioning is in full swing. S&P 500 futures are already up by +3% at press time, with top tech giants back in the green.

随着宏大风的变化，市场重新定位如火如荼。标准普尔500年期货在发稿时已经上涨 +3％，顶级科技巨头重返绿色。

Meanwhile, the bond market is experiencing a sell-off, as evidenced by the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield (interest on government borrowing) rising nearly 6%, reaching 4.433% bps.

同时，债券市场正在经历抛售，这证明了美国财政部为期10年的收益率（政府借款的利息）上涨了近6％，达到4.433％的bps。

Risk-on capital is back in full force, and the timing couldn’t be more critical.

风险登机的资本恢复了全部力量，时机并不重要。

Bitcoin is eyeing a pivotal resistance zone at $106k – a major hurdle for its bullish use case.

比特币正在关注$ 106K的关键阻力区，这是其看涨用例的主要障碍。

The burning question: Will BTC take center stage as a hedge in this post-tariff calm? With rate cuts looking increasingly unlikely, this could be the trigger for its next move, weather up or down.

一个燃烧的问题：BTC是否会在此后的镇定后作为树篱成为中心舞台？随着降低速度的可能性越来越不可能，这可能是其下一步行动的触发因素，天气向上还是向下。

It’s crunch time for Bitcoin to prove its ‘safe-haven’ use case once and for all.

比特币一劳永逸地证明其“避免使用”的用例是紧缩的时间。

Hence, showing the market that it’s not just a speculative play, but a legitimate hedge.

因此，向市场表明，这不仅是投机性的游戏，而且是合法的对冲。