12 月份通胀放缓，比特币上涨

美国劳工统计局（BLS）几分钟前公布了12月份通胀数据，年化数据来了

Bitcoin (BTC) price surged nearly 6% on Friday morning after the latest U.S. inflation data came in lower than expected.

在最新的美国通胀数据低于预期后，比特币 (BTC) 价格周五上午飙升近 6%。

This follows a 3.2% rally in the world’s largest cryptocurrency on Thursday, which was catalyzed by a slower-than-expected expansion in producer prices.

周四，全球最大的加密货币因生产者价格扩张慢于预期而上涨 3.2%。

After rising to a high of $107,000 on Feb. 2, BTC price corrected by about 5% to a low of $99,000 on Feb. 13. Since then, Bitcoin has been attempting to regain the key psychological level.

在2月2日升至107,000美元的高点后，比特币价格回调约5%至2月13日的99,000美元的低点。此后，比特币一直试图重新夺回关键的心理水平。

Relative to the past 30 days, the net new capital flowing into stablecoins has slowed down considerably. In total, the market value of all stablecoins increased by $30 billion in the past two months.

相对于过去30天，流入稳定币的净新增资金大幅放缓。过去两个月，所有稳定币的市值总计增加了 300 亿美元。

However, only $3 billion to $4 billion were added to this segment of the crypto market in the past 30 days, suggesting that the capital inflows have stalled.

然而，在过去 30 天内，加密货币市场的这一领域仅增加了 30 亿至 40 亿美元，这表明资本流入已经停滞。

This observation is also supported by the fact that the total stablecoin supply has only increased by 2% in the past month. In January, the net stablecoin flows were nearly double at $6 billion.

这一观察结果也得到了过去一个月稳定币总供应量仅增加 2% 的事实的支持。 1 月份，稳定币净流量几乎翻倍，达到 60 亿美元。

As highlighted in a recent analysis, there seems to be a correlation between the capital flows into stablecoins and Bitcoin’s price movements.

正如最近的分析所强调的那样，流入稳定币的资本与比特币的价格走势之间似乎存在相关性。

When adjusted for inflation, stablecoin market capitalization reached a recent all-time high of $108,000 for BTC. This level of Bitcoin was last seen in October 2023.

经通胀调整后，比特币稳定币市值达到近期历史新高 108,000 美元。比特币上次出现这一水平是在 2023 年 10 月。

Bitcoin price rallies as U.S. inflation slows down in December. Source: TradingView

随着 12 月份美国通胀放缓，比特币价格上涨。来源：TradingView

Hence, it is safe to say that there’s a correlation between stablecoin flows and Bitcoin’s price.

因此，可以肯定地说，稳定币流量与比特币价格之间存在相关性。

Based on this analysis and the relative stalled expansion of this segment of the crypto space in the past 30 days, there does not seem to be enough fuel for Bitcoin to experience a rally of a high magnitude.

根据这一分析以及过去 30 天内加密货币领域这一领域相对停滞的扩张，似乎没有足够的燃料让比特币经历大幅反弹。

That does not necessarily mean that BTC may not be propelled to local highs perhaps 5% to 10% higher than the most recent peak but it would be difficult to see its price moving from $100,000 to $200,000 in the next 30 days if stablecoin flows continue to expand at this slow rate.

这并不一定意味着 BTC 可能不会被推升至比最近峰值高出 5% 至 10% 的局部高点，但如果稳定币流量继续增加，则很难看到其价格在未来 30 天内从 100,000 美元升至 200,000 美元。以这种缓慢的速度扩张。

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in the United States released its inflation data for December just a few minutes ago and the annualized figure came slightly below analysts’ estimate for the period.

美国劳工统计局(BLS)几分钟前公布了12月份通胀数据，年化数据略低于分析师的预期。

Last month, prices rose by 3.2% compared to the same period a year ago or 10 basis points lower than the market’s consensus estimate.

上个月，价格比去年同期上涨3.2%，比市场普遍预期低10个基点。

Inflation is a critical variable that central bankers take into account to make monetary policy decisions. If inflation is under control, they will be more inclined to keep lowering interest rates, which benefits high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

通货膨胀是央行行长在制定货币政策决策时考虑的一个关键变量。如果通胀得到控制，他们将更倾向于继续降低利率，这有利于加密货币等高风险资产。

The market responded positively with Bitcoin is surging nearly 6% thus far in the session as lower-than-expected inflation could prompt the Federal Reserve to reconsider its monetary policy decision and perform additional interest rate cuts in 2025.

市场反应积极，比特币迄今为止已飙升近 6%，因为低于预期的通胀可能促使美联储重新考虑其货币政策决定，并在 2025 年进一步降息。

Yesterday, the producer price index (PPI), which measures how wholesale prices have evolved in the economy, expanded at a lower rate than expected as well at 0.2%. This helped catalyze the rally that we witnessed in the crypto market yesterday, which saw BTC recover strongly from its recent pullback.

昨天，衡量批发价格在经济中如何演变的生产者价格指数（PPI）的扩张速度也低于预期，为 0.2%。这有助于催化我们昨天在加密货币市场看到的反弹，比特币从最近的回调中强劲反弹。