贝莱德调整比特币投资组合规模，预测采用比特币将推动长期价值

在 12 月 12 日发布的一份题为《调整投资组合中的比特币规模》的报告中，贝莱德强调，这种百分比配置与投资领先的科技股（包括亚马逊、微软和英伟达等巨头）具有相似的投资组合风险水平。

BlackRock’s report highlights Bitcoin’s role in portfolios, suggesting a 1-2% allocation, and exploring how institutional interest and government involvement are shaping the crypto landscape.

贝莱德的报告强调了比特币在投资组合中的作用，建议配置 1-2%，并探讨机构利益和政府参与如何塑造加密货币格局。

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BlackRock’s analysis reveals that a 1-2% Bitcoin allocation carries a portfolio risk level comparable to investing in leading tech stocks, a group that the report refers to as the “magnificent 7.” These companies include Amazon, Microsoft, and Nvidia.

贝莱德的分析显示，1-2% 的比特币配置所带来的投资组合风险水平与投资领先的科技股相当，该报告将这一类股票称为“宏伟的 7 股”。这些公司包括亚马逊、微软和英伟达。

The report advises against exceeding this suggested range, as larger allocations could drastically increase Bitcoin’s risk contribution to a diversified portfolio.

该报告建议不要超过这个建议范围，因为更大的分配可能会大大增加比特币对多元化投资组合的风险贡献。

While Bitcoin offers unique opportunities, investors must tread carefully when deciding how much of their portfolio to commit.

虽然比特币提供了独特的机会，但投资者在决定投入多少投资组合时必须谨慎行事。

Bitcoin’s Value Hinges on Adoption, Not Cash Flows

比特币的价值取决于采用率，而不是现金流

BlackRock’s report shifts the focus away from traditional valuation metrics, highlighting that Bitcoin lacks cash flows to predict future returns. Instead, its long-term value is rooted in adoption trends and its role as a diversified asset.

贝莱德的报告将焦点从传统的估值指标上转移开，强调比特币缺乏现金流来预测未来的回报。相反，它的长期价值植根于采用趋势及其作为多元化资产的作用。

“Bitcoin may also provide a more diversified source of return,” the report explains. The company adds that over time, Bitcoin’s correlation with major risk assets might decline due to its distinct drivers of value. This unique positioning makes Bitcoin a potentially compelling hedge against specific risks akin to gold.

“比特币还可能提供更加多元化的回报来源，”报告解释道。该公司补充说，随着时间的推移，由于其独特的价值驱动因素，比特币与主要风险资产的相关性可能会下降。这种独特的定位使比特币成为一种潜在的、具有吸引力的对冲工具，可以抵御类似于黄金的特定风险。

However, BlackRock cautions that Bitcoin’s risk profile could diminish as adoption grows, potentially leading to fewer structural price catalysts. The cryptocurrency might then evolve into a more tactical investment rather than a driver of high returns.

然而，贝莱德警告称，随着采用率的提高，比特币的风险状况可能会降低，从而可能导致结构性价格催化剂减少。然后，加密货币可能会演变成一种更具战术性的投资，而不是高回报的驱动力。

Bitcoin institutional interest surged in 2024, largely driven by the growing popularity of spot Bitcoin ETFs. These funds, which debuted in January, crossed $100 billion in net assets by November, marking a significant milestone.

2024 年，机构对比特币的兴趣激增，这主要是由于现货比特币 ETF 的日益受欢迎。这些基金于 1 月份推出，到 11 月份净资产突破 1000 亿美元，标志着一个重要的里程碑。

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), the largest spot Bitcoin ETF, holds nearly $54 billion in net assets. Collectively, spot Bitcoin ETFs now manage over 1.104 million BTC, surpassing the balance held by Bitcoin’s anonymous creator, Satoshi Nakamoto. BlackRock’s ETF alone accounts for approximately 529,000 BTC under Coinbase Custody.

贝莱德旗下 iShares 比特币信托 (IBIT) 是最大的现货比特币 ETF，持有近 540 亿美元的净资产。总的来说，现货比特币 ETF 目前管理着超过 110.4 万枚 BTC，超过了比特币匿名创造者中本聪持有的余额。仅 BlackRock 的 ETF 就在 Coinbase 托管下持有约 529,000 BTC。

Such institutional activity is reshaping the crypto landscape. Sygnum Bank’s analysis predicts that even small institutional allocations could create “demand shocks” by 2025, potentially driving Bitcoin prices higher. These developments hint at a rapidly evolving ecosystem where institutional players wield significant influence.

这种机构活动正在重塑加密货币格局。 Sygnum 银行的分析预测，到 2025 年，即使是小规模的机构配置也可能会造成“需求冲击”，从而可能推高比特币价格。这些发展暗示着一个快速发展的生态系统，机构参与者在其中发挥着重大影响力。

Trump’s Crypto-Friendly Stance Adds Momentum

特朗普的加密货币友好立场增添了动力

The recent surge in Bitcoin’s price—breaking $100,000 for the first time—coincides with a notable political shift. Donald Trump, who is viewed as supportive of cryptocurrency, secured the U.S. presidency last month. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $99,819, marking a 1.71% gain in the last 24 hours, according to Brave New Coin’s Bitcoin Liquid Index.

最近比特币价格飙升——首次突破 10 万美元——恰逢显着的政治转变。被视为加密货币支持者的唐纳德·特朗普上个月赢得了美国总统职位。根据 Brave New Coin 的比特币流动性指数，截至撰写本文时，比特币交易价格为 99,819 美元，在过去 24 小时内上涨了 1.71%。

The broader crypto market has gained newfound legitimacy under this pro-crypto administration. Banks like Goldman Sachs, already holding nearly $1 billion in Bitcoin ETF shares, have expressed interest in expanding their participation amid anticipated regulatory clarity.

在这个支持加密货币的政府的领导下，更广泛的加密货币市场获得了新的合法性。像高盛这样的银行已经持有近 10 亿美元的比特币 ETF 股票，在预期监管明确的情况下，它们表示有兴趣扩大参与范围。

At the state level, places like Alabama and Pennsylvania are exploring laws to establish Bitcoin reserves. On a broader scale, governments in countries like the U.S., Brazil, and Canada are reportedly considering similar legislative moves to integrate Bitcoin into strategic reserves.

在州一级，阿拉巴马州和宾夕法尼亚州等地正在探索建立比特币储备的法律。据报道，在更广泛的范围内，美国、巴西和加拿大等国家的政府正在考虑采取类似的立法举措，将比特币纳入战略储备。

Still, the report underscores the importance of moderation. A 1-2% allocation, while modest, reflects Bitcoin’s volatility and the uncertainty surrounding its adoption trajectory. Going beyond this range might expose portfolios to disproportionate risk.

尽管如此，该报告还是强调了适度的重要性。 1-2% 的分配虽然不大，但反映了比特币的波动性及其采用轨迹的不确定性。超出此范围可能会使投资组合面临不成比例的风险。

The question now is whether Bitcoin can continue its upward trajectory without losing its unique edge. With institutional demand climbing and governments warming to crypto, the stage is set for Bitcoin to solidify its position in the financial mainstream.

现在的问题是，比特币能否在不失去其独特优势的情况下继续其上升轨迹。随着机构需求的攀升和政府对加密货币的热情升温，比特币巩固其在金融主流地位的舞台已经准备就绪。