贝莱德 (BlackRock) 的 IBIT 将超越灰度 (Grayscale) 的 GBTC，成为顶级比特币 ETF

贝莱德 (BlackRock) 的 iShares 比特币信托 (IBIT) 有望在 4 月底取代灰度 (Grayscale) 的比特币信托 (GBTC)，成为美国最大的比特币 ETF，分析师预测，这一“翻转”事件将标志着比特币投资格局的重大转变。尽管 GBTC 目前领先 23 亿美元，但 IBIT 的快速增长表明即将被接管，这是由于其较低的费用以及投资者对现货比特币 ETF 的兴趣增加所推动的。

BlackRock's IBIT Poised to Overtake Grayscale's GBTC as Leading Bitcoin ETF

贝莱德 (BlackRock) 的 IBIT 有望超越灰度 (Grayscale) 的 GBTC，成为领先的比特币 ETF

Analysts predict that BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) will surpass the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) as the largest Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States by the end of April 2024. Currently, GBTC holds a slim lead of $2.3 billion, but IBIT has been rapidly gaining ground.

分析师预测，到 2024 年 4 月底，贝莱德的 iShares 比特币信托基金 (IBIT) 将超越灰度比特币信托基金 (GBTC)，成为美国最大的比特币交易所交易基金 (ETF)。目前，GBTC 微弱领先 2.3 美元亿美元，但 IBIT 一直在迅速发展。

IBIT's Ascendance

IBIT的优势

IBIT, launched in October 2021, was initially overshadowed by GBTC, which had dominated the Bitcoin ETF market since its inception in 2013. However, IBIT has benefited from its lower fees and increased transparency, attracting investors who were dissatisfied with GBTC's high expense ratio and lack of regulatory clarity.

IBIT 于 2021 年 10 月推出，最初被 GBTC 所掩盖，GBTC 自 2013 年推出以来一直主导比特币 ETF 市场。然而，IBIT 受益于其较低的费用和透明度的提高，吸引了那些对 GBTC 高费用比率和不满的投资者。缺乏监管清晰度。

Since its approval, IBIT's assets under management (AUM) have grown steadily, while GBTC's AUM has declined. This trend has been exacerbated by the recent bankruptcies of several major crypto firms, which led to forced liquidations of GBTC shares.

自获批以来，IBIT的资产管理规模（AUM）稳步增长，而GBTC的AUM则有所下降。最近几家主要加密货币公司破产导致 GBTC 股票被迫清算，加剧了这一趋势。

GBTC's Struggles

GBTC 的挣扎

GBTC, once a behemoth with AUM exceeding $43 billion, has faced significant challenges in recent years. The fund's value plummeted during the crypto market downturn of 2022, and it has struggled to regain its former glory.

GBTC 曾经是资产管理规模超过 430 亿美元的庞然大物，近年来却面临着重大挑战。该基金的价值在 2022 年加密货币市场低迷期间暴跌，并且一直在努力恢复昔日的辉煌。

Grayscale, GBTC's parent company, has been actively working to convert GBTC into a spot Bitcoin ETF, which would allow investors to redeem their shares for physical Bitcoin. However, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has repeatedly rejected Grayscale's applications, citing concerns about market manipulation and investor protection.

GBTC 的母公司 Grayscale 一直在积极致力于将 GBTC 转换为现货比特币 ETF，这将允许投资者将其股票赎回为实物比特币。然而，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）多次拒绝灰度的申请，理由是担心市场操纵和投资者保护。

The Flippening

翻转

The "flippening" refers to the moment when IBIT's AUM surpasses that of GBTC, effectively dethroning the incumbent champion. Analysts believe that this milestone could occur as early as April 30, 2024.

“翻转”是指 IBIT 的 AUM 超过 GBTC 的时刻，有效地推翻了现任冠军的宝座。分析师认为，这一里程碑最早可能会在 2024 年 4 月 30 日实现。

If IBIT does indeed overtake GBTC, it would mark a significant shift in the Bitcoin ETF landscape. IBIT would become the new benchmark for Bitcoin investors, and Grayscale would face pressure to adapt to the changing market dynamics.

如果 IBIT 确实超越 GBTC，这将标志着比特币 ETF 格局发生重大转变。 IBIT 将成为比特币投资者的新基准，灰度将面临适应不断变化的市场动态的压力。

Bitcoin Market Outlook

比特币市场展望

Despite recent volatility, Bitcoin prices have performed well since the beginning of 2024, gaining approximately 35%. The upcoming Bitcoin halving, which is expected to take place on April 19, 2024, is also likely to have an impact on the market.

尽管最近出现波动，但比特币价格自 2024 年初以来表现良好，上涨了约 35%。即将到来的比特币减半预计将于 2024 年 4 月 19 日发生，也可能对市场产生影响。

Traditionally, halvings have been associated with price rallies, as the reduced supply of new Bitcoins entering the market creates scarcity. However, the halving of 2024 will be the fourth in Bitcoin's history, and its impact on the market is uncertain.

传统上，减半与价格上涨有关，因为进入市场的新比特币供应减少会造成稀缺。不过，2024年减半将是比特币历史上的第四次减半，其对市场的影响尚不确定。

ETF Outflows

ETF 流出

Despite the positive outlook for Bitcoin, Bitcoin ETFs have experienced three consecutive days of outflows totaling approximately $149 million. This suggests that some investors are taking profits or seeking alternative investment opportunities.

尽管比特币前景乐观，但比特币 ETF 已连续三天出现总计约 1.49 亿美元的资金流出。这表明一些投资者正在获利了结或寻求其他投资机会。

Conclusion

结论

The race between IBIT and GBTC for dominance in the Bitcoin ETF market is nearing its conclusion. IBIT appears to be on track to surpass GBTC as the largest Bitcoin ETF by the end of April 2024. This shift will have significant implications for the Bitcoin ETF landscape and could potentially affect the broader cryptocurrency market.

IBIT 和 GBTC 争夺比特币 ETF 市场主导地位的竞赛已接近尾声。 IBIT 似乎有望在 2024 年 4 月底之前超越 GBTC，成为最大的比特币 ETF。这一转变将对比特币 ETF 格局产生重大影响，并可能影响更广泛的加密货币市场。

Meanwhile, the Bitcoin market continues to fluctuate, and the upcoming halving is likely to add further volatility. Investors should monitor the market closely and make informed decisions based on their risk tolerance and investment goals.

与此同时，比特币市场持续波动，即将到来的减半可能会进一步加剧波动。投资者应密切关注市场，并根据自己的风险承受能力和投资目标做出明智的决定。