Bitwise CIO 预测比特币下一次减半将加速增长

Bitwise 首席信息官 Matt Hougan 预测，比特币 (BTC) 在下一个减半周期将发生重大变化，其中包括新投资者和 ETF 带来的波动性下降 50%。 Hougan 预计投资组合中的比特币配置将增加，比特币 ETF 的流入将超过 2000 亿美元。此外，他建议央行可能向比特币分配资金，这可能导致到 2028 年比特币价格上涨至 25 万美元以上。Hougan 将比特币的潜在增长归因于波动性的降低、托管选择的改善以及机构采用率的提高。

Bitcoin's Next Halving: Predictions from Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan

比特币的下一次减半：Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan 的预测

In a comprehensive report, Matt Hougan, the Chief Information Officer (CIO) of Bitwise, has outlined five significant predictions for the upcoming Bitcoin halving event scheduled for 2028. These predictions shed light on the potential transformations that await the world's leading cryptocurrency.

Bitwise 首席信息官 (CIO) Matt Hougan 在一份综合报告中概述了对 2028 年即将到来的比特币减半事件的五个重要预测。这些预测揭示了世界领先的加密货币即将发生的潜在变革。

New Investors and ETFs as Catalysts

新投资者和 ETF 作为催化剂

Hougan anticipates a substantial decline in Bitcoin's volatility, projecting a reduction of approximately 50%. This decrease is attributed to the influx of new investors through the rapidly growing spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) market.

Hougan 预计比特币的波动性将大幅下降，预计下降约 50%。这一下降归因于新投资者通过快速增长的现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）市场涌入。

As financial advisors, family offices, and institutions enter the Bitcoin arena, their diverse investment strategies, characterized by portfolio rebalancing and consistent purchases, are expected to introduce counter-cyclical flows that dampen the cryptocurrency's volatility.

随着财务顾问、家族办公室和机构进入比特币领域，他们以投资组合再平衡和持续购买为特征的多样化投资策略预计将引入反周期流动，抑制加密货币的波动性。

Increased Bitcoin Allocations in Portfolios

增加投资组合中的比特币配置

Hougan foresees a growing recognition of Bitcoin's value within investment portfolios, predicting that target-date portfolios will commonly include 5% allocations to the cryptocurrency. As Bitcoin's volatility diminishes and its appeal to institutional investors rises, Hougan expects a notable surge in typical portfolio allocations.

Hougan 预计，比特币在投资组合中的价值将得到越来越多的认可，并预测目标日期投资组合通常会包含 5% 的加密货币配置。随着比特币波动性的减弱以及对机构投资者的吸引力的上升，Hougan 预计典型的投资组合配置将显着增加。

ETF Inflows Surpassing $200 Billion

ETF流入超过2000亿美元

The Bitwise CIO projects that Bitcoin ETFs will witness substantial inflows, exceeding $200 billion in aggregate. He emphasizes their impressive growth trajectory, noting that they have become the fastest-growing new ETF category in history. Hougan draws parallels with the rise of gold ETFs, which experienced consistent growth in net flows over the years, and anticipates a similar pattern for Bitcoin ETFs.

Bitwise CIO 预计，比特币 ETF 将迎来大量资金流入，总额将超过 2000 亿美元。他强调了它们令人印象深刻的增长轨迹，并指出它们已成为历史上增长最快的新 ETF 类别。 Hougan 将黄金 ETF 的崛起与多年来净流量持续增长的黄金 ETF 进行了比较，并预计比特币 ETF 也会出现类似的模式。

Central Banks' Embrace of Bitcoin

各国央行拥抱比特币

In an intriguing prediction, Hougan suggests that central banks may allocate funds to Bitcoin prior to the next halving event. He highlights their historical role as significant investors in gold, accumulating substantial quantities of the precious metal. However, Hougan believes that due to Bitcoin's non-debt monetary characteristics and its functional advantages over gold in terms of payments and settlement, central banks will be increasingly drawn to the cryptocurrency.

在一个有趣的预测中，Hougan 表示央行可能会在下一次减半事件之前将资金分配给比特币。他强调了他们作为黄金重要投资者的历史作用，积累了大量的贵金属。不过，Hougan认为，由于比特币的非债务货币特征及其在支付和结算方面相对于黄金的功能优势，各国央行将越来越被这种加密货币所吸引。

Hougan further elaborates on this matter: "There is also an element of game theory here. A major central bank adopting Bitcoin as a reserve asset would be a game-changer for Bitcoin and, I believe, would contribute to a dramatic increase in prices. Will one central bank try to front-run the others?"

Hougan 进一步阐述了这个问题：“这里还有博弈论的因素。一家主要央行采用比特币作为储备资产将改变比特币的游戏规则，我相信，这将导致价格大幅上涨。哪家央行会试图领先于其他央行吗？”

Bitcoin's Price Projection: Above $250,000

比特币的价格预测：超过 250,000 美元

Hougan makes a bold forecast, predicting that Bitcoin will trade at a price exceeding $250,000 by 2028, representing a hefty increase of nearly 280% from current levels. The Bitwise CIO attributes Bitcoin's past exponential growth to its evolution from a speculative asset to one with tangible utility in the real world.

Hougan 做出了大胆的预测，预计到 2028 年，比特币的交易价格将超过 25 万美元，较目前水平大幅上涨近 280%。 Bitwise 首席信息官将比特币过去的指数级增长归因于它从一种投机资产演变为在现实世界中具有实际效用的资产。

Factors such as diminished volatility, enhanced custody options, low correlations with conventional stocks, improved accessibility through ETFs, and growing institutional adoption all bolster Hougan's optimism regarding Bitcoin's future price appreciation.

波动性降低、托管选择增强、与传统股票的相关性较低、ETF 的可及性提高以及机构采用率不断提高等因素都增强了 Hougan 对比特币未来价格升值的乐观态度。

In conclusion, Hougan expresses confidence in Bitcoin's mainstream adoption: "With the ETFs launched and gathering assets—and major Wall Street firms lining up behind bitcoin—I suspect the asset will continue to move further into the mainstream. At $250,000, bitcoin would be a $5 trillion asset. Could it go higher? Of course. But $250,000 would represent solid progress between halvings, and I think we'll see at least that."

总之，Hougan 对比特币的主流采用充满信心：“随着 ETF 的推出和资产的聚集，以及华尔街主要公司纷纷支持比特币，我怀疑该资产将继续进一步进入主流。如果价格达到 25 万美元，比特币将成为5万亿美元的资产当然会上涨吗？但25万美元将代表减半期间的坚实进展，我认为我们至少会看到这一点。”

While Bitcoin's current price of $64,500 indicates a slight decline of approximately 3% over the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency remains poised to make significant strides in the lead-up to the next halving event.

尽管比特币目前的价格为 64,500 美元，在过去 24 小时内小幅下跌约 3%，但该加密货币仍有望在下一次减半事件之前取得重大进展。