Bitfinex 预测比特币 (BTC) 在即将到来的利率变化中会出现波动

加密货币交易所 Bitfinex 周一发布了最新的 Alpha 市场报告。它提供了对加密货币市场的预测，重点关注比特币在美国可能降息的情况下的潜在价格走势。

Crypto exchange Bitfinex has shared its latest market analysis, predicting a potential drop in bitcoin (BTC) prices if the U.S. Federal Reserve cuts interest rates this month. The analysis also highlights the historical volatility of bitcoin prices in September.

加密货币交易所 Bitfinex 分享了其最新的市场分析，预测如果美联储本月降息，比特币 (BTC) 价格可能会下跌。该分析还强调了 9 月份比特币价格的历史波动性。

Bitfinex analysis predicts BTC price could drop to low $50,000s or mid $40,000s if Fed cuts interest rates this month.

Bitfinex 分析预测，如果美联储本月降息，比特币价格可能会跌至 50,000 美元低点或 40,000 美元中间。

Crypto Exchange Bitfinex Shares Forecast for Bitcoin Price as Fed Prepares to Cut Interest Rates

随着美联储准备降息，加密货币交易所 Bitfinex 分享了对比特币价格的预测

Crypto exchange Bitfinex shared its latest Alpha market report on Monday. The report provides an analysis of the cryptocurrency market, with a focus on bitcoin’s potential price action amid possible U.S. interest rate cuts.

加密货币交易所 Bitfinex 周一分享了最新的 Alpha 市场报告。该报告对加密货币市场进行了分析，重点关注在美国可能降息的情况下比特币的潜在价格走势。

Regarding bitcoin’s price movement when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, the Bitfinex analysts explained:

对于美联储降息时比特币的价格走势，Bitfinex 分析师解释道：

If we were to speculate, we would caution to expect a 15-20 percent decline when rates are cut this month.

如果我们进行推测，我们会谨慎预期本月降息时将出现 15-20% 的下降。

The analysts pointed out that historical BTC trends suggest diminishing peak returns with each cycle. Elaborating on this, they wrote:

分析师指出，比特币的历史趋势表明，每个周期的峰值回报都会递减。他们详细阐述了这一点，写道：

Assuming the price of BTC at around $60,000 before interest rates are cut, this would place a potential bottom between the low $50,000s or mid $40,000 levels.

假设降息前 BTC 的价格约为 60,000 美元，这将在 50,000 美元低位或 40,000 美元中位之间形成潜在的底部。

“This is not an arbitrary number but based on the fact that the cycle peak in terms of percentage return reduces by around 60-70 percent each cycle and the average bull market correction has reduced as well. But this logic could be negated quite easily if macroeconomic conditions change. These are uncertain times for traders,” the analysts noted, adding:

“这不是一个随意的数字，而是基于这样一个事实，即每个周期回报率的周期峰值减少约 60-70%，平均牛市调整也有所减少。但如果宏观经济条件发生变化，这一逻辑很容易被否定。对于交易员来说，现在是不确定的时期，”分析师指出，并补充道：

However, it’s important to recognize that these estimates are speculative and subject to significant variation based on evolving macroeconomic conditions.

然而，重要的是要认识到这些估计是推测性的，并且会根据不断变化的宏观经济条件而发生重大变化。

The report also discusses bitcoin’s historical volatility during September. “September has traditionally been a volatile month for bitcoin, with an average return of -4.78 percent and a typical peak-to-trough decline of 24.6 percent,” the report notes.

该报告还讨论了 9 月份比特币的历史波动性。报告指出，“9 月历来是比特币波动较大的月份，平均回报率为 -4.78%，典型的峰谷跌幅为 24.6%。”

The analysis adds:

分析补充道：

This volatility is often attributed to the end of the summer trading lull, as fund managers return from vacation and human-driven trading activity increases. The anticipated rate cut in September adds another layer of complexity, potentially exacerbating the market’s volatility.

这种波动通常归因于夏季交易平静期的结束，因为基金经理从假期中归来，并且人为驱动的交易活动增加。预计 9 月份的降息又增加了一层复杂性，可能会加剧市场的波动。

“This historical price action for September also aligns with our view of a projected 20 percent drop in bitcoin prices following a rate cut,” the Bitfinex analysts described.

Bitfinex 分析师表示：“9 月份的历史性价格走势也符合我们预计降息后比特币价格将下跌 20% 的观点。”

“However, itʼs worth noting that historical trends also show that when August ends in the red, September has occasionally defied expectations and delivered positive returns,” they noted.

他们指出：“然而，值得注意的是，历史趋势也表明，当八月以亏损结束时，九月偶尔会超出预期并带来正回报。”

The report also highlights a broader context for the cryptocurrency market. “Across the cryptocurrency industry, we also see a growing trend of political and regulatory engagement, alongside significant advancements in trading infrastructure and market adoption,” the analysis concludes.

该报告还强调了加密货币市场的更广泛背景。分析总结道：“在整个加密货币行业，我们还看到政治和监管参与的趋势不断增长，同时交易基础设施和市场采用也取得了显着进步。”