六年后，比特币的最差回报超过了所有其他资产的最佳回报

上个月，我将比特币的最差回报率与其他资产和股票的最差回报率进行了比较。您可能会觉得这不是一个公平的比较。

Bitcoin's worst return easily beats the best return of other assets, stocks, and even Big Tech over any holding period.

在任何持有期内，比特币的最差回报率都轻松超过了其他资产、股票甚至大型科技公司的最佳回报率。

Last month, I showed that Bitcoin's worst return easily beats the worst return of other assets and stocks. But some people might argue that this isn't a fair comparison because it pits Bitcoin's worst against the other assets' best.

上个月，我表明比特币的最差回报率轻松击败了其他资产和股票的最差回报率。但有些人可能会认为这不是一个公平的比较，因为它将比特币最差的资产与其他资产最好的资产进行比较。

So let's stack the deck against Bitcoin and see how it does. We'll compare Bitcoin's worst return to the best possible return from other assets.

因此，让我们来对抗比特币，看看它的表现如何。我们将比较比特币的最差回报和其他资产的最佳回报。

To calculate this, I need to find the best possible trade for any holding period. Looking backward from 2011 through 2023, here's the best trade for every possible holding period: Buy at the lowest possible price and sell at the highest possible price. Then I compute that for every possible holding period.

为了计算这个，我需要找到任何持有期的最佳可能交易。回顾 2011 年至 2023 年，以下是每个可能持有期的最佳交易：以尽可能低的价格买入，以尽可能高的价格卖出。然后我计算每个可能的持有期。

Doing so for the other asset classes (equities, gold, real estate, and bonds) gives a comparison of the worst of Bitcoin against the best of these other assets:

对其他资产类别（股票、黄金、房地产和债券）进行此操作可以将最差的比特币与最好的其他资产进行比较：

Worst Bitcoin vs. Best Other Assets

最差的比特币与最好的其他资产

First, observe that all the best returns are declining in the holding period. That's because of short-term volatility in the early years, which can lead to outsized returns. Over time, those returns converge to their equilibrium levels.

首先，观察到所有最好的回报在持有期间都在下降。这是因为早年的短期波动可能导致巨额回报。随着时间的推移，这些回报会趋于均衡水平。

Most importantly, the variations in the best returns are near zero compared to Bitcoin. And after six years, Bitcoin's worst return eclipses the best return from all other assets.

最重要的是，与比特币相比，最佳回报的变化接近于零。六年后，比特币的最差回报超过了所有其他资产的最佳回报。

What about Big Tech?

那么大型科技公司呢？

Worst Bitcoin vs. Best Big Tech

最差的比特币 vs. 最好的大型科技公司

As before, the top growth stocks fare better against Bitcoin, with Tesla leading the pack in the early years, and Nvidia and Tesla neck and neck for the long horizon. Now, Bitcoin still beats these stocks, but it takes longer, almost 11 years for the worst Bitcoin return to exceed the best of Tesla or Nvidia.

和以前一样，顶级成长型股票相对于比特币的表现更好，特斯拉在早期处于领先地位，而英伟达和特斯拉在长期内并驾齐驱。现在，比特币仍然跑赢这些股票，但最差的比特币回报率需要更长的时间，接近 11 年才能超过特斯拉或英伟达最好的回报率。

Comparing this to a broader universe of top nine stocks yields a similar story:

将此与更广泛的前九只股票进行比较，会得出类似的结果：

Worst Bitcoin vs. Best Top Stocks

最差的比特币与最好的顶级股票

What’s the lesson here? Holding period matters!

这里有什么教训？持有期限很重要！