比特币的狂野之旅：STH 损失和 SOPR 信号 – 接下来是什么？

比特币最近的波动让短期持有者感到紧张，但 SOPR 信号暗示了潜在的稳定。是投降了，还是还会有更多的负面影响？

Bitcoin's Wild Ride: STH Losses and SOPR Signals – What's Next?

比特币的狂野之旅：STH 损失和 SOPR 信号 – 接下来是什么？

Bitcoin's been on a rollercoaster, with short-term holders feeling the heat. Are we seeing capitulation, or is there more downside ahead? Let's dive into the on-chain signals.

比特币就像坐过山车一样，短期持有者感受到了压力。我们是否会看到投降，或者未来还会有更多的下行空间吗？让我们深入研究链上信号。

Fear Grips the Market: STH Losses Surge

恐惧笼罩市场：STH 损失激增

Bitcoin took a tumble from the $110,000 range, briefly dipping below $100,000. This sharp decline reflects mounting fear, with short-term holders (STHs) feeling the pain. According to on-chain analyst Axel Adler, loss-making transactions among STHs are surging. The 7-day Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) is below 1, indicating that newer holders are selling at a loss. This suggests panic-driven selling, as reactive market participants offload positions under stress.

比特币从 11 万美元区间暴跌，一度跌破 10 万美元。这种急剧下跌反映了人们日益增长的恐惧，短期持有者（STH）感受到了痛苦。链上分析师 Axel Adler 表示，STH 之间的亏损交易正在激增。 7 天短期持有者支出产出利润率 (STH-SOPR) 低于 1，表明新持有者正在亏本出售。这表明恐慌驱动的抛售，因为反应活跃的市场参与者在压力下抛售头寸。

SOPR Signals: Capitulation Not Yet Complete?

SOPR 信号：投降尚未完成？

While STH losses are rising, Adler notes that current on-chain stress hasn't reached full capitulation levels. The STH-SOPR Z-score, while negative, isn't as low as during previous major corrections. This suggests the market might be in the middle phase of its correction, rather than at the end. We're seeing pain and fear, but not a complete exhaustion of sellers. This leaves room for further downside or a potential stabilization if buyers step in.

阿德勒指出，虽然 STH 损失正在上升，但当前的链上压力尚未达到完全投降的水平。 STH-SOPR Z 分数虽然为负，但并不像之前的重大调整期间那么低。这表明市场可能正处于调整的中期阶段，而不是结束阶段。我们看到了痛苦和恐惧，但卖家并没有完全疲惫不堪。如果买家介入，这将为进一步下跌或潜在稳定留下空间。

Price Action: Testing Key Support Levels

价格走势：测试关键支撑位

Bitcoin is attempting to stabilize, but the recovery lacks strength. The prior key demand zone around $105,000–$107,000 has flipped into resistance. Failure to build support above $100,000 could expose the next liquidity pocket toward $96,000–$98,000. A sustained bounce requires buyers to defend current levels as the market tests conviction under stress.

比特币正试图企稳，但复苏缺乏力量。之前 105,000 美元至 107,000 美元左右的关键需求区域已转变为阻力位。如果未能在 100,000 美元上方建立支撑，可能会将下一个流动性口袋暴露在 96,000 至 98,000 美元之间。持续反弹需要买家捍卫当前水平，因为市场在压力下考验信心。

Galaxy Digital's Take: Bullish Long-Term, Cautious Short-Term

Galaxy Digital 的观点：看好长期，谨慎短期

Even with the recent volatility, some institutions remain bullish. Galaxy Digital, while lowering its 2025 price forecast to $120,000, maintains a long-term bullish stance. They cite institutional inflows and ETF growth as drivers of the next expansion phase. Galaxy believes that as long as Bitcoin holds above $100,000, the broader bull market structure remains intact. Other institutions, like Metaplanet, are doubling down, expanding their Bitcoin holdings.

尽管近期波动较大，一些机构仍保持看涨情绪。 Galaxy Digital 虽然将 2025 年价格预测下调至 12 万美元，但仍保持长期看涨立场。他们将机构资金流入和 ETF 增长视为下一扩张阶段的驱动力。 Galaxy 认为，只要比特币保持在 10 万美元以上，更广泛的牛市结构就保持完好。 Metaplanet 等其他机构正在加倍努力，扩大其比特币持有量。

The Bottom Line

底线

Bitcoin's facing some headwinds, with STH losses and SOPR signals painting a mixed picture. While short-term pain is evident, the long-term outlook remains optimistic for many. Whether we see further downside or a swift recovery depends on buyer conviction and the ability to reclaim key support levels.

比特币面临一些阻力，STH 损失和 SOPR 信号描绘了一幅复杂的图景。尽管短期痛苦显而易见，但许多人的长期前景仍然乐观。我们是否会看到进一步的下跌或迅速复苏，取决于买家的信念和夺回关键支撑位的能力。

So, buckle up, HODLers! It's gonna be a bumpy ride. But hey, isn't that what makes Bitcoin so exciting?

所以，扣好安全带，HODLers！这将是一段坎坷的旅程。但是，这难道不是比特币如此令人兴奋的原因吗？