比特币波动性预计接近减半，分析师敦促谨慎

在比特币减半即将到来之际，分析师预测价格可能会下跌。 CryptoQuant 警告称，如果突破 60,000 美元的水平，价格可能会跌至 52,000 美元。然而，通过比特币现货 ETF 增加机构参与可能会将市场稳定在 60,000 美元的支撑位附近，从而防止出现更大幅度的调整。

Bitcoin Price Volatility Amidst Halving Approaches, Analysts Issue Caution

减半临近期间比特币价格波动，分析师发出警告

As the highly anticipated Bitcoin (BTC) halving event draws near, crypto analysts are raising concerns about potential price fluctuations and issuing warnings of potential price drops. CryptoQuant, a renowned cryptocurrency analytics platform, has projected a possible decline in Bitcoin's price to $52,000 if specific key levels fail to hold.

随着备受期待的比特币减半事件的临近，加密货币分析师对潜在的价格波动表示担忧，并对潜在的价格下跌发出警告。著名的加密货币分析平台 CryptoQuant 预计，如果特定的关键水平未能保持，比特币的价格可能会下跌至 52,000 美元。

CryptoQuant has observed growing uncertainty within the Bitcoin derivatives market, with derivative traders exhibiting greater caution compared to previous halving cycles. This caution is particularly notable amidst an increased influx of institutional players entering the market.

CryptoQuant 观察到比特币衍生品市场的不确定性不断增加，与之前的减半周期相比，衍生品交易者表现得更加谨慎。在越来越多的机构参与者涌入市场的情况下，这种谨慎态度尤其值得注意。

The trepidation among derivatives traders is evident in the diminishing open interest and funding rates, as depicted in the BTC chart. Open interest signifies the cumulative number of outstanding derivatives contracts, while funding rates represent the cost associated with holding long positions relative to short positions.

正如比特币图表所示，衍生品交易者的恐惧在未平仓合约和融资利率的下降中显而易见。未平仓合约表示未平仓衍生品合约的累计数量，而融资利率则表示持有多头头寸相对于空头头寸的相关成本。

Key Price Levels to Monitor

需要监控的关键价格水平

According to CryptoQuant, a breach of Bitcoin's price below the $60,000 mark, currently hovering at $61,723, could trigger a potential decline to $52,000. Such a drop would constitute a substantial correction from current levels and could indicate a short-term bearish trend.

据 CryptoQuant 称，如果比特币价格跌破 60,000 美元大关（目前徘徊在 61,723 美元），可能会导致价格跌至 52,000 美元。这样的下跌将构成对当前水平的大幅调整，并可能表明短期看跌趋势。

However, the analysis also acknowledges the significant presence of institutional Bitcoin Spot ETFs within the market. These institutional entities could potentially absorb excess supply resulting from liquidations near the $60,000 support level, potentially bolstering the price and mitigating a more severe decline.

然而，分析也承认市场上机构比特币现货 ETF 的大量存在。这些机构实体可能会吸收 60,000 美元支撑位附近清算造成的过剩供应，从而可能提振价格并缓解更严重的下跌。

Institutional Involvement and Market Dynamics

机构参与和市场动态

The increasing involvement of institutional investors in the cryptocurrency market has become a prominent trend in recent times. Institutional Bitcoin Spot ETFs, in particular, have gained substantial dominance and wield considerable influence over the market.

机构投资者越来越多地参与加密货币市场已成为近年来的一个突出趋势。尤其是机构比特币现货 ETF 已经获得了巨大的主导地位，并对市场产生了相当大的影响力。

These institutional players often adopt a longer-term investment strategy and may be more likely to accumulate Bitcoin during price fluctuations, viewing such declines as buying opportunities rather than reasons for alarm. Their presence could thus play a critical role in stabilizing the market and supporting the price around the $60,000 level.

这些机构参与者通常采取长期投资策略，并且可能更有可能在价格波动期间积累比特币，将此类下跌视为买入机会而不是警惕的原因。因此，他们的存在可能在稳定市场和支撑 60,000 美元水平附近的价格方面发挥关键作用。

As Bitcoin's halving event draws closer, the crypto market braces for potential volatility. While CryptoQuant's projection of a potential drop to $52,000 warrants attention, the strong presence of institutional investors could provide some price support.

随着比特币减半事件的临近，加密市场准备迎接潜在的波动。尽管 CryptoQuant 对价格可能跌至 52,000 美元的预测值得关注，但机构投资者的强劲存在可能会提供一些价格支撑。

The halving event, scheduled to occur on or around May 12, 2024, marks a significant reduction in the issuance rate of new Bitcoins. Historically, halving events have often been associated with increased price volatility and speculation within the crypto market.

减半事件定于 2024 年 5 月 12 日左右发生，标志着新比特币发行率大幅下降。从历史上看，减半事件通常与加密货币市场内的价格波动和投机增加有关。