比特币 15 周年：回顾与展望未来

距离比特币匿名创始人中本聪在比特币背面发表比特币白皮书已有十五年了。

Bitcoin's 15th Anniversary: Key Takeaways

比特币诞生 15 周年：要点

It has been fifteen years since Satoshi Nakamoto, the anonymous founder of Bitcoin, published the whitepaper of what Bitcoin is on the backs of the 2008 crisis, which pushed people to see the merits that it gives people the ability to store assets and providing the ability to have something decentralized and not controlled by one institution.

比特币的匿名创始人中本聪在 2008 年金融危机的背景下发表了《比特币是什么》白皮书，至今已经过去十五年了，它让人们看到了它赋予人们存储资产的能力和提供能力的优点。拥有去中心化的、不受某个机构控制的东西。

I am creating this article to celebrate Bitcoin’s 15th anniversary, which I believe is one of the most significant technological advancements of the past decade. However, its impact is likely much greater than what we see today. While many consider Bitcoin revolutionary, just wait and see how it will disrupt larger markets in the coming years and decades.

我写这篇文章是为了庆祝比特币诞生 15 周年，我认为这是过去十年最重要的技术进步之一。然而，它的影响可能比我们今天看到的要大得多。尽管许多人认为比特币是革命性的，但请拭目以待，看看它在未来几年和几十年内将如何扰乱更大的市场。

Bitcoin's Ongoing Journey

比特币的持续旅程

Fifteen years after Bitcoin was created, many people still believe it will go to zero or view it as a bubble. Additionally, some do not fully understand what Bitcoin even is. This is normal with new technology, as adoption happens gradually. There will eventually be a tipping point when we see a significant shift toward widespread acceptance.

比特币诞生十五年后，许多人仍然相信它会归零或将其视为泡沫。此外，有些人甚至不完全理解比特币是什么。这对于新技术来说是正常的，因为采用是逐渐发生的。当我们看到向广泛接受的方向发生重大转变时，最终将会出现一个转折点。

Currently, we are not yet at the point where everyone fully understands crypto and Bitcoin or the value of various cryptocurrencies. However, when that does happen in the future, those who believe in it today and invest based on their convictions will be the ones to reap the most significant rewards.

目前，我们还没有达到每个人都完全理解加密货币和比特币或各种加密货币的价值的程度。然而，当这种情况在未来发生时，那些今天相信这一点并根据自己的信念进行投资的人将获得最丰厚的回报。

Bitcoin’s Bull And Bear Cycles

比特币的牛市和熊市周期

If you look at Bitcoin’s journey over the past fifteen years, it has experienced several significant surges and declines. During these downturns, many critics declared it was the end and that Bitcoin would never recover. Yet, time and again, Bitcoin has bounced back.

如果你看看比特币在过去十五年的历程，你会发现它经历了几次显着的上涨和下跌。在这些低迷时期，许多批评家宣称它已经结束，比特币永远不会复苏。然而，比特币一次又一次地反弹。

It is important to note how the prolonged bear markets often relate to the halving cycle. Right now, Bitcoin is holding steady above the $55,000 mark, remaining higher than the 2017 peaks and establishing a support level.

值得注意的是，长期熊市通常与减半周期有何关系。目前，比特币稳定在 55,000 美元大关之上，仍高于 2017 年的峰值并建立了支撑位。

While we are not seeing much excitement or upward movement, this consolidation is typical during certain phases of the halving cycle. Those who label Bitcoin a scam during its dips fail to recognize that its ability to recover repeatedly indicates its potential for long-term stability. This process mirrors how technology as a whole is gradually adopted.

虽然我们没有看到太多兴奋或上升趋势，但这种盘整在减半周期的某些阶段是典型的。那些在比特币下跌期间给比特币贴上骗局标签的人没有意识到，其反复复苏的能力表明了其长期稳定的潜力。这个过程反映了技术作为一个整体是如何逐渐被采用的。

Tech Bubble Comparison

科技泡沫比较

Looking at the trajectory of major technology stocks from the early 2000s, you will see that many of these stocks experienced significant declines when the tech bubble burst. Numerous .com companies with little value went to zero and never recovered. However, the strong companies—Microsoft, Apple, Google, and Amazon—managed to bounce back after the dust settled, ultimately surpassing their previous highs.

观察 2000 年代初主要科技股的走势，你会发现其中许多股票在科技泡沫破裂时经历了大幅下跌。许多价值微乎其微的 .com 公司的价值归零，并且再也没有恢复过来。然而，微软、苹果、谷歌和亚马逊等实力雄厚的公司在尘埃落定后成功反弹，最终超越了之前的高点。

Therefore, successful businesses—whether in tech or crypto—have a transformative impact and will endure over time. The crypto market operates similarly to the stock, forex, and commodity markets, which are driven by supply and demand, as well as the actions of buyers and sellers. There will be periods of bearish trends and stagnation, but the strong players always recover.

因此，成功的企业——无论是科技领域还是加密领域——都会产生变革性的影响，并且会随着时间的推移而持续下去。加密货币市场的运作方式与股票、外汇和大宗商品市场类似，都是由供需以及买家和卖家的行为驱动的。会有一段时期的看跌趋势和停滞期，但强者总是会复苏。

Black Swan Events

黑天鹅事件

Now, it is easy to criticize Bitcoin when it is struggling, claiming it will go to zero or labeling it a Ponzi scheme. However, if you look at Bitcoin’s history, it has consistently bounced back from various black swan events, including the Mt. Gox incident and more recent collapses driven by leverage.

现在，当比特币陷入困境时，人们很容易批评它，声称它会归零或给它贴上庞氏骗局的标签。然而，如果你回顾一下比特币的历史，就会发现它一直从各种黑天鹅事件中反弹，包括 Mt. Gox 事件和最近由杠杆驱动的崩盘。

The failures of financial institutions like Voyager, Celsius, Three Arrows Capital (3AC), FTX, and Alameda Research have nothing to do with Bitcoin itself. Bitcoin is one of the most secure and decentralized assets available, and people need to recognize that its status as an asset class is independent of whether we feel bullish or bearish about it.

Voyager、Celsius、三箭资本（3AC）、FTX 和 Alameda Research 等金融机构的失败与比特币本身无关。比特币是最安全、最去中心化的资产之一，人们需要认识到，它作为一种资产类别的地位与我们对它的看涨还是看跌无关。

During this bear market, those who have committed to the long-term vision in the crypto space have been busy building. The previous cycle has helped filter out the bad actors and those seeking quick profits without true conviction. It has also eliminated much of the noise and weeded out projects that were not genuinely focused on creating something transformative.

在这次熊市期间，那些致力于加密货币领域长期愿景的人一直在忙于建设。上一个周期帮助过滤掉了不良行为者和那些没有真正信念而寻求快速利润的人。它还消除了很多噪音，并淘汰了那些并非真正专注于创造变革性事物的项目。

Now, the remaining players—the ones still investing, stacking, building, or actively contributing—are the true believers. They understand that this technology is exciting and has the potential to change the world!

现在，剩下的玩家——那些仍在投资、积累、建设或积极贡献的人——才是真正的信徒。他们明白这项技术令人兴奋并且有潜力改变世界！

Maximum Pessimism And Pain

最大的悲观和痛苦

When people feel scared, and there’s widespread pessimism—when many believe the bear market is never-ending—that’s often when recovery begins. It is important to recognize Bitcoin for what it truly is: a piece of technology. During these times, you must hold onto your conviction to stay invested or add to your position.

当人们感到害怕、悲观情绪普遍存在时——当许多人相信熊市永无止境时——通常就是复苏开始的时候。重要的是要认识到比特币的真正含义：一项技术。在这些时期，您必须坚持自己的信念，继续投资或增加仓位。

Additionally, from a Bitcoin perspective, when miners start to experience significant losses and their revenue no longer covers mining costs, it is a critical signal. Mining comes with energy costs, and when miners face this level of pain, it can indicate that we are nearing a reversal or a bottom.

此外，从比特币的角度来看，当矿工开始遭受重大损失并且他们的收入不再覆盖挖矿成本时，这是一个关键信号。挖矿伴随着能源成本，当矿工面临这种程度的痛苦时，这可能表明我们正接近逆转或触底。

Final Thoughts

最后的想法

Despite the fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) surrounding Bitcoin, it has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to recover, consistently proving the naysay

尽管围绕比特币存在恐惧、不确定性和怀疑（FUD），但它一再证明了其复苏的能力，不断证明反对者的观点