比特币长期持有者供应量30天变化近期为负值

链上数据显示，比特币长期持有者供应量近期持续下降。这对于该资产可能意味着什么。

Bitcoin (BTC) has been displaying some interesting trends in its long-term holder (LTH) supply, and these movements could have significant implications for the asset’s price.

比特币（BTC）的长期持有者（LTH）供应量一直表现出一些有趣的趋势，这些变动可能会对资产的价格产生重大影响。

As defined by CryptoQuant, LTHs are BTC investors who have held their coins for over 155 days. These LTHs are crucial in the Bitcoin market, as their behavior can influence the overall price movements of the cryptocurrency.

根据 CryptoQuant 的定义，LTH 是持有比特币超过 155 天的 BTC 投资者。这些 LTH 在比特币市场中至关重要，因为它们的行为可以影响加密货币的整体价格走势。

Statistically, it has been observed that the longer an investor holds their BTC, the less probable they are to sell it at any given time. Owing to this characteristic, LTHs are often viewed as the stubborn part of the market, in contrast to the short-term holders (STHs), who are known for their fickle-mindedness.

据统计，投资者持有比特币的时间越长，他们在任何特定时间出售比特币的可能性就越小。由于这一特征，LTH 通常被视为市场中顽固的部分，与以善变而闻名的短期持有者 (STH) 形成鲜明对比。

According to a recent analysis by CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr, the BTC LTH supply has not been showing any signs of growth recently. This trend has been continuing since the approval of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in January.

根据 CryptoQuant 作者 Axel Adler Jr 最近的分析，BTC LTH 供应量最近并未显示出任何增长的迹象。自一月份美国证券交易委员会（SEC）批准现货交易所交易基金（ETF）以来，这一趋势一直在持续。

As highlighted by Jr, the LTHs did participate in a selloff recently, which is evident from the sharpest plunge in the 30-day change of the LTH Supply metric, coinciding with the BTC rally toward its new all-time high (ATH).

正如 Jr 所强调的，LTH 最近确实参与了抛售，这从 LTH 供应量指标 30 天变化的最大暴跌中可以看出，这与 BTC 反弹至历史新高 (ATH) 的时间一致。

These diamond hands, as they are often referred to, typically hold their coins for extended periods, accumulating substantial gains. The timing of this selloff suggests that these profits ballooned so significantly during the rally that even the LTHs found it difficult to resist the allure of profit-taking.

这些通常被称为“钻石手”的人通常会长期持有其硬币，从而积累可观的收益。这次抛售的时机表明，这些利润在上涨期间大幅膨胀，甚至 LTH 也发现很难抗拒获利回吐的诱惑。

Despite the bearish price action that BTC has been experiencing recently, the 30-day change in LTH Supply has continued to show a decline, albeit at a much slower rate. This continued drawdown is particularly noteworthy considering that the spot ETF approval launch is now older than 155 days.

尽管 BTC 最近经历了看跌的价格走势，但 LTH 供应量的 30 天变化继续呈现下降趋势，尽管下降速度要慢得多。考虑到现货 ETF 的批准启动时间已经超过 155 天，这种持续的缩减尤其值得注意。

It appears that any buying by HODLers at the time is being offset by fresh selling from older cohort members, further highlighting the complex dynamics at play in the Bitcoin market.

看来，当时持有者的任何购买都被老群体成员的新抛售所抵消，这进一步凸显了比特币市场中复杂的动态。

Interestingly, Jr also points out that the lack of growth in the LTH supply could be an indication of market-wide pessimism. As the graph Jr shared also shows, this is not something entirely new in this cycle.

有趣的是，Jr 还指出，LTH 供应缺乏增长可能表明整个市场的悲观情绪。 Jr 分享的图表也显示，这在这个周期中并不是全新的事情。

It seems that the LTHs also participated in selloffs in the middle of the last two bull runs. Therefore, the recent distribution from the LTHs may not necessarily be a bad sign in the long term.

LTH 似乎也参与了最近两次牛市中的抛售。因此，从长远来看，近期 ​​LTH 的分配不一定是一个坏兆头。

At the time of Jr’s analysis, BTC was trading at around $61,200, showing a decrease of over 4% in the past week.

在 Jr 分析时，BTC 交易价格约为 61,200 美元，过去一周下跌超过 4%。