减半后比特币供应紧缩加剧

最近的比特币减半事件引发了供应紧张，导致需求增加和价格上涨。根据 Bitfinex 市场报告，中心化交易所的比特币供应量大幅减少，而矿工则保留了其持有量。该报告预计抛售压力将进一步下降，现货比特币现金流入将激增，从而造成供需失衡。

Bitcoin Supply Squeeze Intensifies Post-Halving Event

减半后比特币供应紧张加剧

London, April 26, 2024 - The anticipated Bitcoin supply squeeze has commenced following the recent halving event, as reported by Bitfinex in its latest market analysis.

伦敦，2024 年 4 月 26 日 - 据 Bitfinex 在其最新市场分析中报道，在最近的减半事件之后，预期的比特币供应紧缩已经开始。

After a bullish rally post-halving, Bitcoin (BTC) has sustained its upward momentum, reaching a peak of $67,200 within the past 24 hours before stabilizing around $66,200 during the mid-London session on Tuesday.

在减半后的看涨反弹之后，比特币（BTC）保持了上涨势头，在过去 24 小时内达到了 67,200 美元的峰值，然后在周二伦敦时段中期稳定在 66,200 美元左右。

Notably, the supply of Bitcoin on centralized exchanges has witnessed a substantial decline in the months leading up to the halving, an unprecedented occurrence in the cryptocurrency's history. Moreover, Bitcoin miners have maintained their supply despite the halving of their block rewards.

值得注意的是，在减半前的几个月里，中心化交易所上的比特币供应量大幅下降，这是加密货币历史上前所未有的情况。此外，尽管区块奖励减半，比特币矿工仍维持供应。

The recent approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in Hong Kong and the growing interest from institutional investors seeking to hedge against inflation have further fueled the demand for Bitcoin.

最近香港批准现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF），以及寻求对冲通胀的机构投资者的兴趣日益浓厚，进一步刺激了对比特币的需求。

With a current daily emission rate of approximately 450 Bitcoins, the rising global demand is expected to drive Bitcoin prices higher. Nation-states, such as El Salvador, are also accumulating Bitcoin, contributing to the supply shock.

目前每日发行量约为 450 个比特币，全球需求的增长预计将推动比特币价格走高。萨尔瓦多等民族国家也在积累比特币，加剧了供应冲击。

Bitfinex's market report emphasizes that the Bitcoin supply squeeze has already begun. The analysts at Bitfinex anticipate that the overall selling pressure on Bitcoin, including from miners and other traders, will soon decline to approximately $30 million.

Bitfinex 的市场报告强调，比特币供应紧张已经开始。 Bitfinex 的分析师预计，比特币的整体抛售压力（包括来自矿工和其他交易者的抛售压力）将很快下降至约 3000 万美元。

Combined with the daily average spot Bitcoin cash inflows of around $150 million, despite the recent price correction, this creates a significant supply-demand imbalance. On-chain data further indicates a surge in Bitcoin outflows from exchanges, mirroring the behavior observed during previous bull cycles.

尽管近期价格出现调整，但加上每日平均现货比特币现金流入约 1.5 亿美元，这造成了严重的供需失衡。链上数据进一步表明，比特币从交易所流出激增，反映了之前牛市周期中观察到的行为。

"Remarkably, the active selling by long-term holders has not yet triggered the typical pre-halving price drop, suggesting strong absorption of this selling pressure by new market entrants," the Bitfinex analysts noted.

Bitfinex 分析师指出：“值得注意的是，长期持有者的积极抛售尚未引发典型的减半前价格下跌，这表明新市场进入者有力地吸收了这种抛售压力。”

In terms of medium-term price expectations, Bitcoin's price has oscillated between $74,000 and $60,000 over the past two months. Despite the ongoing consolidation, popular crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe suggests that Bitcoin could remain range-bound in the coming months, potentially leading to an altseason characterized by strong performance from alternative cryptocurrencies.

就中期价格预期而言，过去两个月比特币价格在 74,000 美元至 60,000 美元之间波动。尽管整合正在进行，但受欢迎的加密货币分析师 Michaël van de Poppe 表示，比特币在未来几个月可能会保持区间波动，这可能会导致以替代加密货币表现强劲为特征的山寨季。

"Bitcoin is still consolidating within the range, through which this is now more than six weeks. Boredom has come back into the markets, but anything sub $60K is a massive buy opportunity," van de Poppe tweeted.

van de Poppe 发推文称：“比特币仍在该区间内盘整，目前已经过去六周多了。市场又回到了无聊的状态，但任何低于 6 万美元的东西都是一个巨大的买入机会。”

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently retesting the bullish breakout level of 70. This trend bears striking similarities to the crypto bubble observed in 2016-2017, which underscores the potential for further price appreciation.

从技术角度来看，比特币的月度相对强弱指数（RSI）目前正在重新测试 70 的看涨突破水平。这一趋势与 2016-2017 年观察到的加密货币泡沫惊人相似，凸显了价格进一步升值的潜力。