比特币 2100 万供应上限只是婴儿潮一代的神话

在比特币的世界里，有些事情是不可变的。然而，贝莱德最近发布的三分钟比特币讲解视频中看似无伤大雅的免责声明，引发了一场关于加密货币最神圣的原则之一的存在主义辩论：2100 万的供应上限。

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此版本由 Infinity Hash 为您带来。一个透明且可靠的系统，可以拥有真正的矿场的一部分。

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在这里注册，首次购买即可获得 10% 红利股票?

Happy Sunday explorers ? In today’s Rabbit hole we scratch our heads as to how BlackRock's footnote sparked a fundamental debate about Bitcoin's future.

探索者周日快乐?在今天的兔子洞中，我们对贝莱德的脚注如何引发关于比特币未来的根本性辩论感到摸不着头脑。

It’s a question that cuts to the heart of the debate: What happens when traditional finance's immense resources meet crypto's decentralised governance?

这是一个切入争论核心的问题：当传统金融的巨大资源遇到加密货币的去中心化治理时会发生什么？

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考虑注册按需付费订阅来支持我们的工作——这要归功于像您这样的读者的支持。

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支持代币分发

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如果您想接触 Token Dispatch 的 190,000 多个订阅者社区，您可以探索与我们的合作机会。

In the world of Bitcoin, some things are meant to be immutable.

在比特币的世界里，有些事情是不可变的。

Yet a seemingly innocuous disclaimer in BlackRock's recent three-minute Bitcoin explainer video has sparked an existential debate about one of crypto's most sacred tenets: the 21 million supply cap.

然而，贝莱德最近发布的三分钟比特币讲解视频中看似无伤大雅的免责声明，引发了一场关于加密货币最神圣的原则之一的存在主义辩论：2100 万的供应上限。

"There is no guarantee that Bitcoin's 21 million supply cap will not be changed," read the footnote, causing a swift backlash from the crypto community.

脚注中写道：“无法保证比特币 2100 万枚的供应上限不会改变。”这句话迅速引起了加密社区的强烈反对。

For traditionalists, it was like suggesting the rules of chess might suddenly allow pawns to move backwards.

对于传统主义者来说，这就像暗示国际象棋规则可能突然允许棋子向后移动一样。

Technically possible, but fundamentally against the game's nature.

技术上可行，但从根本上违背了游戏的本质。

Wall Street's New Power Play

华尔街的新权力游戏

The timing couldn't be more pointed.

时机再准确不过了。

BlackRock with over 550,000 Bitcoin (worth approximately $53 billion) through its ETF, has an powerful influence over the asset.

贝莱德通过其 ETF 拥有超过 550,000 枚比特币（价值约 530 亿美元），对该资产具有强大的影响力。

Its disclaimer — in line with the similar language from its June 2023 ETF filing — has led to questions about the potential for institutional pressure on Bitcoin's fundamental properties.

其免责声明（与 2023 年 6 月 ETF 文件中的类似语言一致）引发了人们对比特币基本属性可能面临的机构压力的质疑。

Steve Patterson, the author of book Hijacking Bitcoin.

史蒂夫·帕特森（Steve Patterson），《劫持比特币》一书的作者。

Technical Possibility vs Social Reality

技术可能性与社会现实

The technical reality is both simple and complex.

技术现实既简单又复杂。

Whether Bitcoin’s supply cap can be changed or not depends on how one defines “Bitcoin,” Super Testnet, pseudonymous Bitcoin developer behind BitVM, told Cointelegraph.

BitVM 背后的化名比特币开发者 Super Testnet 告诉 Cointelegraph，比特币的供应上限是否可以改变取决于人们如何定义“比特币”。

Yes, Bitcoin's supply cap could theoretically be changed through a hard fork.

是的，理论上比特币的供应上限可以通过硬分叉来改变。

Citing Satoshi Nakamoto’s Bitcoin whitepaper, Super Testnet reckons that the resulting network would be "Bitcoin" in name only.

超级测试网引用中本聪的比特币白皮书，认为最终的网络只是名义上的“比特币”。

"The inflation cap is definitional to Bitcoin … eliminate that, and whatever you have isn't Bitcoin anymore. You might as well ask what it would take to turn Bitcoin into PayPal."

“通货膨胀上限是比特币的定义......消除它，无论你拥有什么都不再是比特币了。你不妨问一下如何才能将比特币变成 PayPal。”

An uncapped supply version of “Bitcoin” wouldn’t be Satoshi Nakamoto’s Bitcoin.

“比特币”的无上限供应版本不会是中本聪的比特币。

This perspective highlights a crucial distinction: while code can be changed, consensus is another matter entirely.

这种观点强调了一个关键的区别：虽然代码可以更改，但共识完全是另一回事。

This difference has played out before — during the 2015-2017 Blocksize War.

这种差异以前就曾出现过——在 2015-2017 年的区块大小战争期间。

The Blocksize War was the battle between Big and Small Blockers centred around the debate over increasing the blocksize limit, which determines how many transactions can be processed in each block of the blockchain.

区块大小战争是大区块者和小区块者之间的战斗，围绕着增加区块大小限制的争论，区块大小限制决定了区块链的每个区块可以处理多少交易。

Approximately 95% of Bitcoin miners supported increasing the block size limit. The proposal failed because node operators and investors refused to adopt the change.

大约 95% 的比特币矿工支持增加区块大小限制。该提案因节点运营商和投资者拒绝采用这一变更而失败。

The Security Budget Conundrum

安全预算难题

The most pressing concern isn't the supply cap itself, but what happens as block rewards diminish.

最紧迫的担忧不是供应上限本身，而是当区块奖励减少时会发生什么。

Bitcoin's security model relies on miners being economically incentivised to maintain the network.

比特币的安全模型依赖于经济激励矿工来维护网络。

As rewards halve every 210,000 blocks, the system faces a crucial question: Will transaction fees alone be sufficient to maintain network security?

随着每 210,000 个区块奖励减半，系统面临一个关键问题：仅交易费用足以维护网络安全吗？

Some, like Bitcoin developer Nikita Zhavoronkov, argue that "large sustainable fees aren't happening, the 1 MB limit has to go."

比特币开发商 Nikita Zhavoronkov 等一些人认为，“大规模的可持续费用不会发生，1 MB 的限制必须取消。”

Others, like Casa's CTO Jameson Lopp, view the future security budget as "Schrödinger's cat" — operating under philosophical, not provable, assumptions.

其他人，比如 Casa 的首席技术官詹姆森·洛普 (Jameson Lopp)，将未来的安全预算视为“薛定谔的猫”——在哲学的、不可证明的假设下运作。

Are we going to see another Blocksize war in the future?

未来我们会看到另一场区块大小战争吗？

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购买一次，永久每日赚取比特币

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Infinity Hash 将云和托管挖矿的最佳方面带入透明可靠的系统中，提供长期现金流。

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通过 Infinity Hash Shares 签订终身合约

Daily payouts in Bitcoin and other coins

每日支付比特币和其他硬币

A fully transparent community project

完全透明的社区项目

The Shrinking Supply Reality

供应萎缩的现实

While we debate the sanctity of the 21 million cap, research suggests the effective supply might be significantly lower.

虽然我们争论 2100 万上限的神圣性，但研究表明有效供应量可能要低得多。

Analysts David Puell and James Check in their research report Cointime Economics estimate between 3.89 and 4.87 million coins could be considered permanently lost, including Satoshi's untouched Bitcoin stash and the zombie coins.

分析师 David Puell 和 James Check 在他们的研究报告 Cointime Economics 中估计，有 3.89 到 487 万枚比特币可能被视为永久丢失，其中包括中本聪未触及的比特币储备和僵尸币。

Quantifying the number of lost coins can be ambiguous, but if we take the lower base of the estimate it is still 3.89 million Bitcoin lost

量化丢失的比特币数量可能不明确，但如果我们采用较低的估计基数，丢失的比特币数量仍然是 389 万枚