比特币的实力经受了全球动荡的考验，未来看起来光明

Scaramucci 预计，由于战争或恐怖主义等地缘政治事件，明年比特币的价值可能会贬值 10-15%。尽管比特币作为通胀对冲工具和价值储存手段越来越受欢迎，但其广泛采用对其稳定性至关重要，因为目前，它更多地被视为一种投机资产。

Bitcoin's Resilience Tested Amid Geopolitical Turbulence, Long-Term Prospects Intact

比特币的弹性在地缘政治动荡中经受考验，长期前景完好

In a comprehensive interview with CNBC, Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital, shed light on the complex dynamics of Bitcoin's role in the financial ecosystem. While acknowledging the cryptocurrency's vulnerability to geopolitical events, Scaramucci expressed optimism about its long-term growth trajectory.

SkyBridge Capital 创始人 Anthony Scaramucci 在接受 CNBC 综合采访时阐明了比特币在金融生态系统中的复杂动态。在承认加密货币容易受到地缘政治事件影响的同时，斯卡拉穆奇对其长期增长轨迹表示乐观。

Geopolitical Headwinds: A Short-Term Volatility Factor

地缘政治逆风：短期波动因素

Scaramucci highlighted the susceptibility of Bitcoin to geopolitical tensions, noting that events such as war or terrorist attacks could trigger significant value fluctuations. He estimated a potential drop of 10% to 15% in Bitcoin's value over the next year due to such occurrences.

斯卡拉穆奇强调了比特币对地缘政治紧张局势的敏感性，并指出战争或恐怖袭击等事件可能会引发重大的价值波动。他估计，由于此类事件的发生，明年比特币的价值可能会下跌 10% 至 15%。

This assessment aligns with recent market behavior. Following reports of a missile strike in the Middle East, Bitcoin witnessed a sharp decline, falling below the $60,000 mark. Investors often seek solace in traditional safe-haven assets like gold and government bonds during times of heightened geopolitical uncertainty.

这一评估与近期的市场行为相符。在中东发生导弹袭击的报道之后，比特币大幅下跌，跌破 60,000 美元大关。在地缘政治不确定性加剧的时期，投资者往往会从黄金和政府债券等传统避险资产中寻求安慰。

Bitcoin's Maturation: Towards Stability and Adoption

比特币的成熟：走向稳定性和采用

Despite short-term volatility, Scaramucci believes Bitcoin's true potential as a mainstream asset class will be realized once its user base exceeds 1 billion. Currently, Bitcoin is primarily viewed as a speculative asset rather than a stable store of value. Widespread adoption, he argues, will mitigate volatility and enhance its appeal as a reliable financial instrument.

尽管存在短期波动，斯卡拉穆奇相信，一旦比特币用户群超过 10 亿，其作为主流资产类别的真正潜力就会显现出来。目前，比特币主要被视为一种投机资产，而不是稳定的价值储存手段。他认为，广泛采用将减轻波动性并增强其作为可靠金融工具的吸引力。

Institutional Involvement: A Mixed Outlook

机构参与：前景喜忧参半

Scaramucci addressed concerns about the centralization of Bitcoin ownership, particularly with the rise of exchange-traded funds (ETFs). While acknowledging the presence of institutional players, he reassured investors that institutional holdings represent only a small fraction of the overall market, estimated at less than 10%.

斯卡拉穆奇谈到了人们对比特币所有权集中化的担忧，特别是随着交易所交易基金（ETF）的兴起。在承认机构参与者的存在的同时，他向投资者保证，机构持股仅占整个市场的一小部分，估计不到 10%。

He emphasized that institutional involvement can be both beneficial and challenging. On the one hand, increased institutional participation can lend credibility and stability to Bitcoin. On the other hand, it could potentially raise concerns about market manipulation and concentration of ownership.

他强调，机构参与既有利又具有挑战性。一方面，增加机构参与可以提高比特币的可信度和稳定性。另一方面，这可能会引起人们对市场操纵和所有权集中的担忧。

Long-Term Bullishness: Factors Driving Value

长期看涨：推动价值的因素

Scaramucci maintained a bullish stance on Bitcoin's long-term prospects, citing several factors that could propel its value upwards. These include the recent launch of a Spot ETF, which provides investors with exposure to the underlying asset without having to directly purchase Bitcoin.

斯卡拉穆奇对比特币的长期前景保持看涨立场，并列举了几个可能推动其价值上涨的因素。其中包括最近推出的现货 ETF，它为投资者提供了标的资产的敞口，而无需直接购买比特币。

Increased institutional involvement, as well as the upcoming halving event, are also seen as potential catalysts for Bitcoin's growth. The halving event, scheduled to occur between April 19 and 20, will halve the reward for miners who validate transactions, reducing the rate at which new Bitcoin enters circulation.

机构参与的增加以及即将到来的减半事件也被视为比特币增长的潜在催化剂。减半事件计划于 4 月 19 日至 20 日期间发生，验证交易的矿工的奖励将减半，从而降低新比特币进入流通的速度。

Revised Price Target: Reflecting a Brighter Outlook

修订后的价格目标：反映出更光明的前景

Scaramucci revised his previous price prediction for Bitcoin, which stood at $170,000 by mid-to-late 2025. He now believes that Bitcoin could soar even higher, potentially reaching $200,000 or beyond. This revised target reflects his bullish outlook on the cryptocurrency's long-term prospects.

斯卡拉穆奇修改了之前对比特币的价格预测，预计到 2025 年中后期将达到 17 万美元。他现在认为比特币可能会飙升得更高，有可能达到 20 万美元甚至更高。这一修改后的目标反映了他对加密货币长期前景的看好前景。

Conclusion: Bitcoin's Resilience and Evolving Role

结论：比特币的弹性和不断变化的角色

While Bitcoin faces short-term volatility due to geopolitical uncertainties, its long-term growth trajectory remains promising. As the cryptocurrency ecosystem continues to evolve and mature, Bitcoin is expected to emerge as a resilient asset class capable of weathering geopolitical storms and delivering substantial returns for investors. Its potential as a hedge against inflation and a store of value is still in its early stages of adoption, but with widespread acceptance and continued innovation, Bitcoin may establish itself as a dominant force in the financial landscape.

尽管由于地缘政治不确定性，比特币面临短期波动，但其长期增长轨迹仍然充满希望。随着加密货币生态系统的不断发展和成熟，比特币有望成为一种有弹性的资产类别，能够抵御地缘政治风暴并为投资者带来丰厚的回报。它作为对冲通胀和价值储存的潜力仍处于早期采用阶段，但随着广泛接受和持续创新，比特币可能会成为金融领域的主导力量。