比特币持仓量上升，接近 400 亿美元

比特币目前处于 9 月份的高点，在 10 月 14 日突破 66,000 美元之后回落。尽管比特币以现货价格计算走低，但阻力最小的路径似乎向北，而且趋势正在发生变化，与 2024 年第一季度的涨幅一致。

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at September highs, retracing after breaking above $66,000 on October 14. Although the coin is trading lower at spot rates, the path of least resistance appears northwards, and the trend is shifting, aligning with gains of Q1 2024.

比特币 (BTC) 目前处于 9 月高点，在 10 月 14 日突破 66,000 美元之后回落。尽管比特币以现货价格计算走低，但阻力最小的路径似乎向北，而且趋势正在发生变化，与 2024 年第一季度的涨幅一致。

Bitcoin Open Interest Rising, Approaching $40 Billion

比特币持仓量上升，接近 400 亿美元

After months of lower lows, the world’s most valuable coin is lifting off, and with it, sentiment is improving. The latest market data shows that the Bitcoin open interest across all major derivatives exchanges is approaching an all-time high.

在经历了几个月的低点后，世界上最有价值的代币正在崛起，随之而来的是市场情绪的改善。最新市场数据显示，所有主要衍生品交易所的比特币持仓量正接近历史新高。

According to Coinglass, open interest rose to over $39 billion in March 2024. As of October 15, the Bitcoin open interest is over $37.6 billion, expanding from yesterday’s $34.6 billion.

根据 Coinglass 的数据，2024 年 3 月，未平仓合约增至超过 390 亿美元。截至 10 月 15 日，比特币未平仓合约超过 376 亿美元，较昨天的 346 亿美元有所扩大。

Open interest is usually used to gauge trader interest. The exchange data combines the number of all leveraged short and long positions posted by traders across top exchanges, including Binance and Bybit.

未平仓合约通常用于衡量交易者的兴趣。该交易所数据综合了交易者在币安和Bybit等顶级交易所发布的所有杠杆空头和多头头寸的数量。

Since open interest is not directional and doesn’t indicate whether there are more buyers or sellers at any point, the metric gauges trader interest and willingness to engage.

由于未平仓合约没有方向性，并且并不表明在任何时候是否有更多的买家或卖家，因此该指标衡量交易者的兴趣和参与意愿。

Whenever crypto prices rise, as was the case from early Q4 2023, open interest began swelling before peaking at an all-time high of over $39 billion in March 2024.

每当加密货币价格上涨时，就像 2023 年第四季度初的情况一样，未平仓合约就会开始膨胀，然后在 2024 年 3 月达到超过 390 亿美元的历史新高。

Falling Bitcoin prices from Q2 2024 also coincided with a contraction in open interest. By August 6, when BTC fell below $50,000, the Bitcoin open interest crashed below $26 billion before steadily recovering.

自 2024 年第二季度起，比特币价格不断下跌，同时未平仓合约也出现收缩。到 8 月 6 日，当 BTC 跌破 5 万美元时，比特币持仓量跌破 260 亿美元，然后稳步回升。

Will BTC Prices Rally Above $74,000?

BTC 价格会反弹至 74,000 美元以上吗？

Considering the growth rate over the past 24 hours, it is highly likely that any break and close above $66,000 could attract more traders to open leverage positions. In that event, the Bitcoin open interest would swell to above $40 billion, printing an all-time high.

考虑到过去 24 小时的增长率，任何突破并收于 66,000 美元以上的价格都极有可能吸引更多交易者开设杠杆头寸。届时，比特币未平仓合约将增至 400 亿美元以上，创历史新高。

From the daily chart, Bitcoin has strongly rejected $66,000, marking September highs. However, if bulls of October 14 flow back, prices might float higher, back to July 2024 highs of $70,000. For now, traders are confident that prices will align with September gains and rally to March peaks.

从日线图来看，比特币已强势拒绝66,000美元，创下9月高点。然而，如果 10 月 14 日的多头回流，价格可能会走高，回到 2024 年 7 月的高点 70,000 美元。目前，交易员有信心价格将与 9 月份的涨幅保持一致，并反弹至 3 月份的峰值。

While confidence is high, the long-short ratio data from Coinglass reveals fewer long than short volumes. Currently, 51% of BTC trading volume is sell, while 49% is buy volume. This data signals that most traders are still bearish.

尽管信心十足，但 Coinglass 的多空比率数据显示，多头交易量少于空头交易量。目前，BTC 交易量的 51% 为卖出量，49% 为买入量。该数据表明大多数交易者仍然看跌。