比特币上涨激发乐观情绪，交易员瞄准 10 万美元大关

随着比特币的复苏，期权交易员预计今年加密货币的价格可能达到 10 万美元。看涨情绪的激增体现在对行使价为 70,000 美元至 100,000 美元的看涨期权的需求大幅增加。市场分析师认为，在美国大选周期、持续的赤字支出和美元指数走弱等因素的支撑下，比特币阻力最小的路径仍然是向上。

Bitcoin's Resurgence Fuels Optimism, Traders Anticipate $100,000 Threshold

比特币的复苏激发了乐观情绪，交易者预计将达到 10 万美元门槛

The recent surge in Bitcoin's price has reignited enthusiasm among options traders, fueling speculation that the cryptocurrency could potentially reach the $100,000 milestone within the year.

最近比特币价格的飙升重新点燃了期权交易者的热情，引发了人们对这种加密货币可能在年内达到 10 万美元里程碑的猜测。

Since Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's statements last Wednesday, suggesting a less aggressive approach to monetary tightening, Bitcoin has witnessed a significant uptrend, rising over 12% to reach $63,470, according to data from CoinDesk. This positive momentum gained further traction following the release of disappointing U.S. nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data on Friday, which corroborated Powell's stance.

根据 CoinDesk 的数据，自美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔上周三发表声明，暗示采取不那么激进的货币紧缩措施以来，比特币出现了显着的上涨趋势，上涨超过 12%，达到 63,470 美元。周五公布的令人失望的美国非农就业数据证实了鲍威尔的立场，这种积极势头进一步增强。

This surge has sparked a surge in demand for Bitcoin call options, particularly at strike prices ranging from $70,000 to $100,000, on both Deribit, a leading cryptocurrency exchange, and over-the-counter (OTC) networks. These options, which grant the holder the right to purchase Bitcoin at a predetermined price on or before a specified date, reflect traders' bullish outlook.

这种激增引发了对比特币看涨期权的需求激增，特别是在领先的加密货币交易所 Deribit 和场外交易 (OTC) 网络上，执行价格在 70,000 美元到 100,000 美元之间。这些期权授予持有者在指定日期或之前以预定价格购买比特币的权利，反映了交易者的看涨前景。

"We are observing a bullish surge in volatility and rates following the weekend's sharp reversal from Friday," QCP Capital noted in a research report on Monday. "BTC risk reversals have become positive, indicating that calls are now more expensive than puts, and there has been a noticeable increase in demand for BTC September expiry $75,000 and $100,000 calls."

QCP Capital 周一在一份研究报告中指出：“继上周末与上周五大幅逆转之后，我们观察到波动性和利率看涨。” “BTC 风险逆转已经变得积极，表明看涨期权现在比看跌期权更贵，并且对 BTC 9 月到期的 75,000 美元和 100,000 美元看涨期权的需求明显增加。”

OTC institutional cryptocurrency trading network Paradigm corroborated this observation, highlighting the growing interest in out-of-the-money (OTM) calls, which are options with strike prices significantly higher than Bitcoin's current market rate.

场外机构加密货币交易网络 Paradigm 证实了这一观察结果，强调了人们对价外 (OTM) 看涨期权的兴趣日益增长，这些看涨期权的执行价格明显高于比特币当前的市场利率。

"The options market anticipated a short-term leg higher this morning," Paradigm said in a Telegram broadcast. "Top BTC and ETH trades on Paradigm involved OTM calls bought in large quantities. We noticed the previous March 25 $200,000 call buyer closing their position to purchase the July 2024 $85,000 strike."

Paradigm 在 Telegram 广播中表示：“期权市场预计今天上午将出现短期走高。” “Paradigm 上的热门 BTC 和 ETH 交易涉及大量 OTM 看涨期权购买。我们注意到之前 3 月 25 日 200,000 美元看涨期权买家平仓，购买了 2024 年 7 月 85,000 美元的看涨期权。”

Data from Deribit reveals that traders have locked in over $688 million in $100,000 strike call options across various maturities, representing the highest notional open interest among all options listed on the exchange. As of this writing, more than 150,000 call option contracts worth $9.5 billion were active on Deribit, significantly outnumbering put options, signaling bullish market expectations.

Deribit 的数据显示，交易者已锁定了超过 6.88 亿美元的不同期限的 100,000 美元行使价看涨期权，这是该交易所列出的所有期权中最高的名义未平仓合约。截至撰写本文时，Deribit 上活跃的看涨期权合约数量超过 150,000 份，价值 95 亿美元，数量远超看跌期权，表明市场预期看涨。

"Bitcoin continues to be supported by the U.S. election cycle and ongoing deficit spending," stated 10X Research. "Our 'line in the sand' has been adjusted upward from 68,300 to 62,000, indicating that the market could maintain a bullish trajectory above $62,000."

10X Research 表示：“比特币继续受到美国选举周期和持续赤字支出的支持。” “我们的‘沙线’已从 68,300 点向上调整至 62,000 点，表明市场可能在 62,000 美元上方保持看涨轨迹。”

Swissblock Insights anticipates that the U.S. dollar index (DXY) will remain weak unless Powell's stance is challenged. A weaker DXY generally benefits risk-on assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Swissblock Insights 预计，除非鲍威尔的立场受到挑战，否则美元指数（DXY）将保持疲软。美元走弱通常有利于风险资产，包括加密货币。

"The dollar's weakness is likely to persist as long as economic data remains supportive and Federal Reserve officials align with Powell's outlook," Swissblock Insights said in its latest newsletter. "However, more hawkish Fed voices advocating for prolonged higher interest rates could impact the dollar's trajectory and thus affect Bitcoin's price."

Swissblock Insights 在最新的通讯中表示：“只要经济数据仍然支持并且美联储官员与鲍威尔的前景保持一致，美元的疲软就可能持续下去。” “然而，美联储主张长期加息的鹰派声音可能会影响美元的走势，从而影响比特币的价格。”

Elliott wave analysis by John Glover, chief investment officer of Ledn, suggests that Bitcoin could potentially surge to $92,000.

Ledn 首席投资官 John Glover 的艾略特波浪分析表明，比特币可能飙升至 92,000 美元。

"Bitcoin's price action continues to align with my expected path for Wave 4," Glover said in an email to CoinDesk. "Although the dip to $56.5k may have completed the correction, I still anticipate a move to $52-55k before Wave 4 completes. Once completed, I expect the Wave 5 push to approximately $92k."

格洛弗在给 CoinDesk 的电子邮件中表示：“比特币的价格走势继续与我对第 4 波浪潮的预期走势保持一致。” “虽然跌至 56,500 美元可能已经完成了修正，但我仍然预计在第 4 波完成之前价格将升至 52-55,000 美元。一旦完成，我预计第 5 波将上涨至约 92,000 美元。”

Ralph Nelson Elliott introduced the Elliott wave theory in 1938, which postulates that financial market movements can be predicted by identifying repetitive wave patterns. These patterns consist of five waves, with 1, 3, and 5 representing impulse waves and 2 and 4 indicating retracements.

拉尔夫·纳尔逊·艾略特 (Ralph Nelson Elliott) 于 1938 年提出了艾略特波浪理论，该理论假设可以通过识别重复的波浪模式来预测金融市场的走势。这些形态由五个波浪组成，其中 1、3 和 5 代表脉冲波，2 和 4 代表回调波。

This surge in optimism has been met with cautious optimism by some analysts, who highlight the potential for market volatility, regulatory uncertainty, and broader macroeconomic factors to influence Bitcoin's trajectory. However, the current market sentiment remains bullish, with traders and investors anticipating further price gains and the potential for a significant milestone of $100,000 to be reached in the coming months.

一些分析师对这种乐观情绪的高涨表示谨慎乐观，他们强调市场波动、监管不确定性和更广泛的宏观经济因素可能会影响比特币的走势。然而，当前的市场情绪仍然看涨，交易员和投资者预计价格将进一步上涨，并有可能在未来几个月内达到 100,000 美元的重要里程碑。