为什么比特币还没有达到 10 万美元的水平？加密货币分析师 Charles Edwards 分享他的看法

加密货币分析师兼 Capriole Investments 基金创始人 Charles Edwards 在 X 社交媒体平台上分享了他对为什么

Crypto analyst and founder of Capriole Investments fund Charles Edwards took to the X social media platform to share his thoughts on why the world’s leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, has not yet reached the $100,000 level.

加密货币分析师兼 Capriole Investments 基金创始人 Charles Edwards 在 X 社交媒体平台上分享了他对为什么世界领先的加密货币比特币尚未达到 10 万美元水平的想法。

He also named the key factors that he expects to propel the BTC price upwards within the coming few months.

他还指出了预计未来几个月内推动比特币价格上涨的关键因素。

"Why aren't we at $100,000 yet?"

“为什么我们还没有达到 100,000 美元？”

Edwards published a thread on X to share the reasons he believes stand between Bitcoin and the much-anticipated $100,000 price mark at the moment. This price surge has not yet taken place despite the launch of the spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Edwards 在 X 上发表了一篇帖子，分享了他认为比特币与目前备受期待的 10 万美元价格大关之间的原因。尽管推出了现货比特币 ETF，但价格尚未出现飙升。

Why aren't we at $100,000 yet?

为什么我们还没有达到 100,000 美元？

US Bitcoin ETFs have acquired 200% of the Bitcoin mined since launch in mid-January. At $71K, Bitcoin is up 50% since the ETFs launched, but many are asking why not more? pic.twitter.com/v86Aagvys4

自 1 月中旬推出以来，美国比特币 ETF 已收购了 200% 的比特币开采量。自 ETF 推出以来，比特币价格已上涨 50%，价格为 71,000 美元，但许多人问为什么不再上涨更多呢？ pic.twitter.com/v86Aagvys4

So far, he stated, Bitcoin is up only 50% since January, when the SEC greenlighted the ETFs, and many are wondering why BTC has not surged higher, Edwards pointed out. Bitcoin is changing hands slightly above $71,000 at the time of this writing.

Edwards 指出，到目前为止，自 1 月份 SEC 批准 ETF 开绿以来，比特币仅上涨了 50%，许多人想知道为什么 BTC 没有飙升。截至撰写本文时，比特币易手价格略高于 71,000 美元。

Key factors for strong BTC rise in future

未来BTC强劲上涨的关键因素

First of all, Edwards shared, “We are battling against a bigger force – long-term holder selling.” According to his tweet, the number of long-term Bitcoin-holding wallets (those that have been holding for more than two years) has declined from the 57% all-time high reached in December 2023 to 54% today. Even though this is just a 3% drop and may not look impressive, still, this comprises 630,000 BTC, which is 300% of the total BTC supply that Bitcoin ETFs have bought in the U.S. since January.

首先，爱德华兹表示，“我们正在与一股更大的力量作斗争——长期持有者的抛售。”根据他的推文，长期持有比特币的钱包（持有两年以上的钱包）的数量已从 2023 年 12 月达到的历史高点 57% 下降到今天的 54%。尽管这只是 3% 的下降，而且可能看起来并不令人印象深刻，但这仍然包括 630,000 BTC，这是自 1 月份以来比特币 ETF 在美国购买的 BTC 供应总量的 300%。

The second reason shared by the analyst is that the market has not yet seen the true impact of the halving so far. In April, when the event took place, Bitcoin's daily issuance plunged by 50%. Edwards believes that over the next year, the delta between the ETFs purchasing Bitcoin and the BTC being mined will grow much wider.

分析师分享的第二个原因是，目前市场尚未看到减半的真正影响。 4月份该事件发生时，比特币日发行量暴跌50%。爱德华兹认为，明年，购买比特币的 ETF 和正在开采的 BTC 之间的差异将变得更大。

Financial institutions need time to review the situation and allocate funds for buying Bitcoin; therefore, spot ETFs are likely to remain leaders in BTC purchasing at least for this year, he says.

金融机构需要时间审视形势并分配资金购买比特币；因此，他表示，至少在今年，现货 ETF 可能仍然是 BTC 购买的领先者。

Overall, Edwards named three drivers he believes are necessary for Bitcoin to begin rising sharply. These are higher average daily ETF buying, lower long-term holder selling and growth in U.S. liquidity.

总的来说，爱德华兹列举了他认为比特币开始大幅上涨所必需的三个驱动因素。这些是 ETF 日均买入量增加、长期持有者卖出量减少以及美国流动性增长。