比特币集会：分析师警告 - 只剩30天到达到顶峰？

比特币的集会有专家分裂。一位分析师警告说，在30天内提高了高峰，而另一位则预测持续增长。这是终点，还是呼吸器？

Bitcoin Rally: Analyst Warning – Only 30 Days Left to Peak?

比特币集会：分析师警告 - 只剩30天到达到顶峰？

Bitcoin's recent surge has sparked debate. One analyst predicts a peak within 30 days, while others foresee further growth. Is this a final hurrah or a temporary pause?

比特币最近的激增引发了辩论。一位分析师预测在30天内达到峰值，而其他分析师则预计会进一步增长。这是最后的欢呼还是临时停顿？

The 30-Day Countdown

30天倒计时

Crypto analyst Jelle suggests the Bitcoin supercycle is nearing its end, estimating only 30 days until the peak. His prediction is based on historical cycles, with each peak occurring approximately 1,064 days after the bottom. If his analysis holds true, Bitcoin could experience a further 20% increase before a potential decline.

加密分析师杰尔（Jelle）认为比特币超级循环即将结束，估计只有30天的时间。他的预测基于历史周期，每个峰发生在底部后约1,064天。如果他的分析成立，比特币可能会在潜在下降之前再增加20％。

Supercycle or Regular Cycle?

超级循环还是常规周期？

Bitcoin's price typically follows cycles, influenced by events like the quadrennial “halving,” which reduces mining rewards and often triggers bull runs. The latest halving occurred in April 2024, initiating the current uptrend. The key question is whether this is a standard cycle or a "supercycle," characterized by sustained growth driven by institutional adoption.

比特币的价格通常遵循周期，受到诸如四年一度“减半”之类的事件的影响，该事件减少了采矿奖励，并且经常触发公牛的运行。最新的减半发生在2024年4月，启动了当前的上升趋势。关键问题是这是标准周期还是“超级循环”，其特征是由机构采用驱动的持续增长。

The Bullish Perspective

看涨的观点

Bernstein analysts, for example, believe the bull run will continue until 2027, fueled by favorable U.S. policies and the influx of institutional investment through spot Bitcoin ETFs. They forecast Bitcoin reaching $150,000–$200,000, with altcoins like ETH and SOL leading the next phase. The recent Federal Reserve rate cut further supports this bullish outlook.

例如，伯恩斯坦分析师认为，公牛的运行将持续到2027年，这是由美国政策良好的政策和通过现货比特币ETF涌入的机构投资的涌入。他们预测比特币将达到150,000美元至20万美元，而Altcoins（例如ETH和SOL）则领先下一阶段。最近的美联储降低的速度进一步支持了这种看涨的前景。

Whales Accumulating, Retail Hesitant

鲸鱼积累，零售业犹豫不决

Onchain data indicates that large Bitcoin holders (whales) are accumulating more BTC. MicroStrategy, under Michael Saylor, has converted $2 billion in debt into Bitcoin, signaling long-term confidence. However, retail investors remain cautious, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) trending below its moving average.

OnChain数据表明，大型比特币持有人（鲸鱼）正在积累更多的BTC。在迈克尔·塞勒（Michael Saylor）的领导下，MicroStrategy已将20亿美元的债务转换为比特币，这表明了长期信心。但是，散户投资者仍然谨慎，如相对强度指数（RSI）趋势低于其移动平均线的表明。

A Word of Caution

谨慎

Despite the overall positive sentiment, BNB price has fallen back under $1,000 after hitting a record high, with cooling volumes and overheated trading leaving the token exposed to further correction.

尽管总体上有积极的情绪，但BNB的价格在创下了创纪录的高位后仍低于1,000美元，冷却量和过热的交易使代币暴露于进一步的更正。

The Contrarian View and Potential Drawdown

逆势观点和潜在的缩减

While many predict continued growth, it's crucial to acknowledge Bitcoin's history of significant sell-offs. Steven McClurg, CEO of Canary Capital, anticipates Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by late 2025, driven by sustained ETF inflows and institutional demand. However, he also cautions about a potential 40% drawdown, which could bring Bitcoin down to the $90,000 level.

尽管许多人预测持续增长，但要承认比特币的重大抛售历史至关重要。 Canary Capital首席执行官史蒂芬·麦克卢格（Steven McClurg）预计，在2025年底，比特币将在持续的ETF流入和机构需求的驱动下达到15万美元。但是，他还警告说，潜在的40％的缩水可能会使比特币降至90,000美元。

Final Thoughts: Buckle Up, Buttercup!

最终想法：扣紧，毛cup！

So, is the Bitcoin party about to end in 30 days, or are we just getting started? The experts are divided, the whales are loading up, and the market is doing its usual rollercoaster impression. Whether it's a supercycle or just a regular one, one thing's for sure: Bitcoin never fails to keep things interesting. So, buckle up, buttercup, because it's gonna be a wild ride!

那么，比特币派对即将在30天内结束，还是我们刚刚开始？专家分裂，鲸鱼正在加载，市场正在做平常的过山车印象。无论是超级循环还是普通的，一件事都是肯定的：比特币永远不会让事情变得有趣。因此，搭扣，毛cup，因为这将是一个疯狂的旅程！