比特币彩虹图预测 2024 年底 BTC 价格范围

比特币彩虹图是一种利用对数增长曲线并描述不同价格水平的投资者情绪的工具。

Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading within a narrow range for the past week, with little movement either up or down. After a significant climb in the initial months of 2024 and a new all-time high (ATH) just above $73,000 in March, the world’s premier cryptocurrency found itself in a strong downtrend in June and early July.

过去一周，比特币（BTC）一直在窄幅区间内交易，上涨或下跌幅度不大。在 2024 年前几个月大幅上涨并在 3 月份创下略高于 73,000 美元的历史新高 (ATH) 后，这种全球首屈一指的加密货币在 6 月和 7 月初发现自己处于强劲的下跌趋势中。

While the decline is at least partially driven by a convergence of events – including the German government's plans to offload seized BTC and the long-awaited repayments by the collapsed crypto exchange Mt. Gox – Bitcoin has crashed through multiple support zones, leaving many investors feeling wary.

虽然下跌至少部分是由一系列事件推动的——包括德国政府计划出售扣押的比特币，以及倒闭的加密货币交易所 Mt. Gox 期待已久的偿还——但比特币已经突破了多个支撑区，让许多投资者感到警惕。

Although BTC is still up 32.44% on the year-to-date (YTD) chart, it has lost nearly 20% in the last 30 days of trading and is 23.09% below its yearly – and all-time – highs.

尽管 BTC 在年初至今 (YTD) 图表上仍上涨 32.44%，但在过去 30 天的交易中已下跌近 20%，比其年度和历史高点低 23.09%。

After a brief rally on July 7, which saw BTC rise to an intraday high of $57,800, the cryptocurrency appears to have settled in the range between just below $54,500 and just above $56,000 – levels not seen since February – with little certainty about whether the next move will take it higher or lower. Bitcoin price today, at press time, stands at $56,147.

7 月 7 日，BTC 短暂上涨至 57,800 美元的盘中高点，之后，该加密货币似乎稳定在略低于 54,500 美元至略高于 56,000 美元的区间内——自 2 月份以来未曾见过的水平——但不确定下一次是否会出现这种情况。移动会使它更高或更低。截至发稿时，今天的比特币价格为 56,147 美元。

In this climate of fear and uncertainty, the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart – a tool that utilizes a logarithmic growth curve and describes investor sentiment at various price levels – can offer valuable insights into what the coin’s next move in the crypto market may be.

在这种恐惧和不确定的气氛中，比特币彩虹图——一种利用对数增长曲线并描述不同价格水平的投资者情绪的工具——可以为加密货币市场的下一步走势提供有价值的见解。

The 2024 Bitcoin Rainbow chart

2024 年比特币彩虹图

The Bitcoin Rainbow Chart is divided into nine color-coded zones, each representing a certain price range and the associated market sentiment. These range from ‘Bitcoin is dead’ – lows that indicate that severe bearish sentiment prevails – to ‘Maximum Bubble Territory’ – highs that are so high that the cryptocurrency’s price is likely to plummet.

比特币彩虹图分为九个颜色编码区域，每个区域代表一定的价格范围和相关的市场情绪。这些范围从“比特币已死”（表明严重看跌情绪盛行的低点）到“最大泡沫区域”（高点如此之高以至于加密货币的价格可能会暴跌）。

According to the chart, the recent downtrend brought Bitcoin to the border between ‘Accumulate’ – levels that indicate it is a good time to purchase more of the coin – and ‘Still cheap’ – another zone predicted to be well below BTC’s forthcoming highs.

根据图表，最近的下跌趋势将比特币带到了“收集”（表明现在是购买更多比特币的好时机）和“仍然便宜”（预计远低于比特币即将到来的高点的另一个区域）之间的边界。

Bitcoin Rainbow chart predicts Bitcoin ranges for end of 2024

比特币彩虹图预测 2024 年底比特币价格范围

In addition to presenting Bitcoin’s historical performance and placing it in a market sentiment context, the Rainbow Chart also offers some insights into the likely future prices of the world’s premier cryptocurrency.

除了展示比特币的历史表现并将其置于市场情绪背景下之外，彩虹图还提供了对世界主要加密货币未来可能价格的一些见解。

According to the tool, should BTC find itself below $37,417.75 in late December, it would mean that the current bull cycle is likely at an end and that the winds of the crypto winter are again blowing strong.

根据该工具，如果 BTC 在 12 月底低于 37,417.75 美元，则意味着当前的牛市周期可能结束，加密货币冬天的风再次强劲。

On the other hand, trading above $186,667.72 would hint that Bitcoin has become a bubble, while sustained closes above $244,473.74 would all but guarantee it, meaning that a major correction is almost certainly imminent.

另一方面，交易价格高于 186,667.72 美元将暗示比特币已成为泡沫，而持续收盘价高于 244,473.74 美元则几乎可以保证这一点，这意味着几乎肯定即将出现重大调整。

Elsewhere, the Rainbow chart indicates that BTC would be most stable at the end of 2024 if it remains between $85,730.33 and $112,983.27 – the ‘HODL’ range – and relatively stable, though investors would do well to keep a lookout for the range between $112,983.27 and $144,774.1 – the ‘Is this a bubble?’ range.

在其他地方，彩虹图表表明，如果 BTC 保持在 85,730.33 美元至 112,983.27 美元（“HODL”范围）之间，并且相对稳定，那么到 2024 年底，BTC 将最为稳定，尽管投资者最好密切关注 112,983.27 美元至 112,983.27 美元之间的范围。 144,774.1 美元——“这是泡沫吗？”范围。

Finally, the tool strongly suggests that an investor would be right to buy Bitcoin near the end of 2024 if it trades in the zone between $50,768.84 and $65,962.8 as it marks the area as ‘Accumulate’ though prices up to $85,730.33 would still be considered relatively cheap.

最后，该工具强烈表明，如果比特币交易价格在 50,768.84 美元至 65,962.8 美元之间，投资者在 2024 年底购买比特币是正确的，因为该工具将该区域标记为“收集”，尽管高达 85,730.33 美元的价格仍被认为相对便宜。

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