比特币价格波动：10 万美元会守住还是修正会加深？

比特币的价格正在测试 10 万美元的关键支撑位。它会持续下去，还是即将出现更深层次的调整？检查关键水平、机构情绪和未来预测。

Bitcoin's been on a wild ride, hitting new highs and then taking a breather. The big question now: Is the $100,000 support level strong enough, or are we heading for a bigger dip? Let's break down what's happening with Bitcoin's price, key support levels, and the possibility of a correction.

比特币经历了一段疯狂的旅程，创下新高，然后稍事休息。现在的大问题是：100,000 美元的支撑位是否足够强大，或者我们是否会出现更大的下跌？让我们来分析一下比特币价格的变化、关键支撑位以及修正的可能性。

$100K: The Line in the Sand

10 万美元：沙中之线

Bitcoin has entered a decisive phase, retesting the $100,000 support. According to market analyst TedPillows, $100K is now the dividing line between a normal pullback and a deeper correction. Lose that, and we might see a drop to around $92,000.

比特币已进入决定性阶段，重新测试 10 万美元支撑位。市场分析师 TedPillows 表示，10 万美元现在是正常回调和深度调整之间的分界线。如果失去这一点，我们可能会看到价格跌至 92,000 美元左右。

Technical Indicators: A Mixed Bag

技术指标：好坏参半

The daily chart shows Bitcoin struggling beneath its 100-day and 200-day moving averages, hinting that sellers might have the upper hand. Consolidation is happening between $102,000 and $100,000. Fewer active Bitcoin addresses and more coins flowing into exchanges suggest traders are getting ready to sell.

日线图显示，比特币在 100 日和 200 日移动均线下方挣扎，暗示卖家可能占据上风。合并发生在 102,000 美元到 100,000 美元之间。活跃比特币地址的减少和流入交易所的比特币数量的增加表明交易者正在准备出售。

Institutional Faith: Still Holding Strong

机构信心：依然坚挺

Despite the recent price dips, big players are still in the game. MicroStrategy recently added another $45.6 million in Bitcoin, signaling that institutional conviction remains firm. Adoption is also spreading, with Dubai telecom operator Du launching a Bitcoin mining service for its subscribers.

尽管最近价格下跌，但大玩家仍在参与其中。 MicroStrategy 最近又增持了 4560 万美元的比特币，表明机构信念依然坚定。迪拜电信运营商 Du 为其用户推出了比特币挖矿服务，比特币的采用也在蔓延。

Galaxy's Revised Outlook

银河修正后的展望

Galaxy, an institutional investment firm, recently revised its 2025 Bitcoin target from $185,000 to $120,000, citing a shift towards a "maturity era" with lower volatility and slower appreciation. They pointed to a $19 billion liquidation event in October as a key factor in this revision.

机构投资公司 Galaxy 最近将其 2025 年比特币目标从 185,000 美元调整为 120,000 美元，理由是比特币正在向波动性较低、升值速度较慢的“成熟时代”转变。他们指出，10 月份发生的 190 亿美元清算事件是此次修正的关键因素。

Key Support and Resistance Levels

关键支撑位和阻力位

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is stabilizing around $103,300. Resistance sits near $104,400, with support at $100,400. If Bitcoin reclaims $106,000, it could climb towards $110,000–$112,000. A drop below $102,000 risks testing the $97,600–$95,000 range.

从技术角度来看，比特币稳定在 103,300 美元附近。阻力位在 104,400 美元附近，支撑位在 100,400 美元。如果比特币重回 106,000 美元，它可能会攀升至 110,000 美元至 112,000 美元。跌破 102,000 美元可能会考验 97,600 美元至 95,000 美元的区间。

The Bullish Argument

看涨论点

Despite the correction, there are reasons to be optimistic. The Fed's monetary policy changes, including potential rate cuts and quantitative easing, could improve Bitcoin liquidity. Renewed spot demand after heavy liquidations of leveraged traders is also a positive sign. CryptoQuant's data shows addresses accumulating Bitcoin are at record levels.

尽管出现了调整，但仍有理由保持乐观。美联储的货币政策变化，包括可能的降息和量化宽松，可能会改善比特币的流动性。杠杆交易商大量清算后现货需求的复苏也是一个积极的信号。 CryptoQuant 的数据显示，积累比特币的地址达到了创纪录的水平。

The Bearish Argument

看跌论点

Slow capital flow to Bitcoin, as observed by spot BTC ETFs and Digital Asset Treasuries, could weigh down bullish sentiment. Market chartist Aksel Kibar notes that failing to hold the $98.2k support level could invalidate a midterm target of $141.3k.

正如现货 BTC ETF 和数字资产国债所观察到的那样，资金流向比特币的速度缓慢，可能会打压看涨情绪。市场图表分析师 Aksel Kibar 指出，未能守住 98.2 万美元的支撑位可能会使 14.13 万美元的中期目标失效。

Future Forecasts: Short-Term Caution, Long-Term Optimism

未来预测：短期谨慎，长期乐观

CoinCodex forecasts that Bitcoin could reach an average price near $126,000 by the end of 2025, possibly peaking at $143,700. While 2026 may bring consolidation, Bitcoin could climb above $270,000 by 2030.

CoinCodex 预测，到 2025 年底，比特币的平均价格可能达到 126,000 美元附近，峰值可能达到 143,700 美元。虽然 2026 年可能会出现整合，但到 2030 年，比特币价格可能会升至 27 万美元以上。

Final Thoughts

最后的想法

Will Bitcoin hold above $100K? Only time will tell. But whether it bounces back or dips further, remember: the Bitcoin story ain't over. It's just entering its next chapter. So, buckle up and enjoy the ride!

比特币会保持在 10 万美元以上吗？只有时间才能证明一切。但无论它是反弹还是进一步下跌，请记住：比特币的故事还没有结束。它刚刚进入下一章。所以，系好安全带，享受旅程吧！