当今的比特币价格约为103,650美元

当今的比特币价格约为103650美元，试图稳定在关键$ 104000电阻区以下

Bitcoin price today attempts to stabilize just below the key $104,000 resistance zone as it enters a brief consolidation phase. While the macro trend remains bullish, lower time frames show Bitcoin forming symmetrical triangles, suggesting a breakout—or breakdown—may be imminent heading into May 19.

当今比特币的价格试图稳定在短暂的合并阶段，即可稳定在关键的104,000美元阻力区域以下。尽管宏观趋势仍然看涨，但较低的时间范围显示比特币形成对称的三角形，这表明突破或崩溃 - 可能会直接前往5月19日。

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Awaiting Key Breakout

比特币价格分析：等待关键突破

Looking at the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin continues to respect a rising support trendline that connects the early May lows to the current structure. After surging from sub-$100,000 levels earlier this month, the Bitcoin price has faced repeated rejections just under $105,000. The consolidation near $103,300-$103,800 represents a period of indecision following the bullish rally, but structure remains intact as long as bulls defend $101,500.

从4小时的图表中看，比特币继续尊重一个上升的支持趋势线，该趋势线将早期连接到当前结构。在本月早些时候从低于$ 100,000的水平飙升后，比特币的价格反复拒绝了105,000美元。合并接近$ 103,300- $ 103,800代表了看涨集会之后的犹豫时期，但是只要公牛捍卫101,500美元，结构仍然完好无损。

BTC price dynamics (Source: TradingView)

BTC价格动态（来源：TradingView）

Multiple triangle breakouts since April have fueled Bitcoin price spikes, but current candles suggest caution. A bearish divergence is forming between price and RSI, as price hovers near highs while momentum flattens.

自4月以来，多次三角突破促进了比特币的价格峰值，但目前的蜡烛表明谨慎。价格和RSI之间形成了看跌的分歧，因为价格徘徊在势头变平的同时。

RSI, MACD, and Bollinger Bands Suggest Caution

RSI，MACD和Bollinger乐队建议谨慎

BTC price dynamics (Source: TradingView)

BTC价格动态（来源：TradingView）

On the 30-minute chart, RSI has moved up to 62.6—indicating moderate bullish pressure, but not yet in overbought territory. This aligns with MACD, which has printed a bullish crossover, but with relatively flat histogram bars suggesting lack of strong follow-through. Together, these indicators imply a cautiously bullish tone for the near term.

在30分钟的图表上，RSI提高了62.6，这表明了中度的看涨压力，但尚未在超买的领土上。这与MACD保持一致，MACD印刷了看涨的跨界，但具有相对平坦的直方图杆表明缺乏强大的跟进。这些指标在一起，暗示着近期的谨慎看涨语气。

BTC price dynamics (Source: TradingView)

BTC价格动态（来源：TradingView）

Meanwhile, Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart are beginning to contract around the $103K region, pointing to suppressed Bitcoin price volatility. Historically, such compression precedes significant directional moves. The upper band sits near $104,500 and the lower at $102,200, defining the current volatility envelope.

同时，4小时图表上的Bollinger乐队开始在103K $ 103K的地区收缩，指出抑制了比特币的价格波动。从历史上看，这种压缩在明显的方向移动之前。上带乐队的价格接近104,500美元，较低的价格为102,200美元，定义了当前的波动率。

Why Bitcoin Price Going Up Today?

为什么今天的比特币价格上涨？

The answer lies in the triangle consolidation breakout observed on the 30-minute chart. Bitcoin recently broke out from a narrowing pattern near $103,200, pushing toward the upper resistance block at $103,800. This move is supported by volume uptick and confirmation from MACD crossover, signaling bulls are attempting to reclaim short-term control.

答案在于在30分钟图表上观察到的三角合并突破。比特币最近从缩小范围的缩小图案中爆发出$ 103,200，推向上限块103,800美元。这一举动得到了音量增加和MACD跨界的确认，信号牛市试图恢复短期控制。

However, without a strong close above $104,500, the Bitcoin price update remains range-bound. Bulls need to decisively flip this level into support to reignite upside momentum toward $105,700 and $107,000.

但是，如果没有高于104,500美元的强劲关闭，比特币价格更新仍然存在。公牛需要果断地将这一水平转向支持，以重新点燃上空势头，向105,700美元和107,000美元。

Broader Trend Still Favors Buyers

更广泛的趋势仍然有利于买家

BTC price dynamics (Source: TradingView)

BTC价格动态（来源：TradingView）

The daily and weekly charts show that Bitcoin remains well above key support zones. On the 1-day chart, BTC has broken the long-term downtrend resistance and is now consolidating above the $100K psychological level. The weekly Fibonacci retracement from the March correction reveals Bitcoin is holding just under the 0.786 level at $103,970, with the 1.0 extension target sitting at $109,396.

每日和每周的图表显示，比特币仍然远远超过了关键支撑区。在为期1天的图表上，BTC打破了长期的下降趋势抵抗力，现在正巩固高于$ 10万美元的心理水平。 3月更正的每周斐波那契回撤表明，比特币的持有量低于0.786的水平，为103,970美元，1.0扩展目标为109,396美元。

BTC price dynamics (Source: TradingView)

BTC价格动态（来源：TradingView）

Additionally, EMAs continue to align favorably. The 20 EMA (4H) at $103,334 and the 50 EMA at $102,683 are providing dynamic support. The 200 EMA sits far below at $96,599, reaffirming that the long-term Bitcoin price trend remains intact and bullish.

此外，EMAS继续有利。 20 EMA（4H）的价格为$ 103,334和50 EMA，价格为102,683美元，提供了动态支持。 200 EMA远低于96,599美元，重申长期比特币价格趋势保持完整和看涨。

May 19 Outlook: Breakout or Retest?

5月19日Outlook：突破还是重新测试？

BTC price dynamics (Source: TradingView)

BTC价格动态（来源：TradingView）

If Bitcoin price today can sustain a close above $104,000 with increasing volume, it opens the path toward a move to $105,700 and potentially $107,500. On the downside, failure to hold $102,900 could lead to a retest of the $101,500-$101,900 demand zone, where previous breakout structures were formed.

如果当今的比特币价格可以维持超过$ 104,000的近104,000美元，那么它将为搬迁至105,700美元而可能为107,500美元的道路开辟道路。不利的一面是，如果不持有$ 102,900，可能会导致重新测试$ 101,500- $ 101,900需求区，并在该区域形成了以前的突破结构。

Given the mixed short-term indicators and strong macro backdrop, traders should expect a directional move in the next 24 hours—especially as Bollinger Bands tighten and intraday triangle resistance nears.

考虑到混合的短期指标和强大的宏观背景，交易者应该期望在接下来的24小时内采取方向性移动，尤其是随着布林乐队的收紧和静脉内三角电阻的临近。

BTC Forecast Table: May 19

BTC预测表：5月19日