比特币价格目标：分析师看到不祥之兆

分析师正在上调比特币的价格目标，有些人甚至建议设定一个新的、更高的下限。我们是否正处于另一场比特币繁荣的风口浪尖？

Bitcoin Price Targets: Analysts See the Writing on the Wall

比特币价格目标：分析师看到不祥之兆

Bitcoin's been on a tear, and analysts are taking notice. Forget those old price predictions – the game has changed. The latest buzz? Some are saying we've established a new, higher floor for Bitcoin. Buckle up, because things are about to get interesting.

比特币的价格一直在上涨，分析师们已经注意到了这一点。忘掉那些旧的价格预测吧——游戏已经改变了。最新动态？有人说我们已经为比特币建立了一个新的、更高的底线。系好安全带，因为事情即将变得有趣。

The New Bitcoin Bottom?

比特币新底部？

James Check, a Bitcoin analyst, boldly claims that $110,000 is the new bottom. That's right, a floor, not a ceiling. In a recent YouTube interview, Check suggested it's time to “start lifting some of your targets.” We're talking about a market cap that's proven it can handle $2 trillion – and counting. The big question now isn't if it'll go higher, but how much higher?

比特币分析师 James Check 大胆宣称 11 万美元是新的底部。没错，是地板，不是天花板。在最近的 YouTube 采访中，Check 建议是时候“开始提升一些目标了”。我们正在谈论的市值已被证明可以承受 2 万亿美元，并且还在不断增加。现在最大的问题不是它是否会走高，而是高出多少？

$150,000: The Next Stop?

150,000 美元：下一站？

Check believes $150,000 is the “most logical thing,” representing a $3 trillion market cap. Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards agrees, suggesting a quick breakout to this new all-time high is in the cards. Even back in December 2024, Galaxy Digital's Alex Thorn projected Bitcoin could hit $150,000 in 2025, potentially soaring to $185,000.

Check 认为 15 万美元是“最合乎逻辑的事情”，代表着 3 万亿美元的市值。 Capriole Investments 创始人查尔斯·爱德华兹 (Charles Edwards) 对此表示同意，并表示有望迅速突破这一历史新高。早在 2024 年 12 月，Galaxy Digital 的 Alex Thorn 就预测比特币到 2025 年可能会达到 15 万美元，甚至可能飙升至 18.5 万美元。

Supply and Demand: The Million-Dollar Question

供给与需求：百万美元的问题

But it's not just about gut feelings. A recent study by Satoshi Action Education dives deep into Bitcoin's supply and demand dynamics. Their findings? There's a 75% chance Bitcoin will exceed $4.81 million by 2036. Yeah, you read that right. They predict we could see Bitcoin hitting $1 million as early as 2028.

但这不仅仅是直觉。中本聪行动教育最近的一项研究深入探讨了比特币的供需动态。他们的发现？到 2036 年，比特币的价值有 75% 的可能性将超过 481 万美元。是的，你没看错。他们预测比特币最早可能在 2028 年达到 100 万美元。

The study focuses on the fixed supply of 21 million coins, combined with current purchasing behavior. ETF inflows, corporate buys, and miner hoarding are all squeezing the available supply. Daily demand is estimated to be 11 to 13 times greater than daily supply. That's a recipe for some serious price action.

该研究重点关注 2100 万枚代币的固定供应量，并结合当前的购买行为。 ETF 流入、企业购买和矿工囤积都在挤压可用供应。每日需求估计是每日供应的 11 至 13 倍。这会导致一些严重的价格行为。

The Wild Card: Dormant Bitcoins

通配符：休眠的比特币

Of course, there's a catch. What about the 14.4 million Bitcoins that haven't moved in over 155 days? Will they flood the market when prices surge? The study assumes that a good chunk of these (around 5.76 million) are gone for good, locked up as strategic reserves or lost forever. But if those dormant coins wake up, all bets are off.

当然，有一个问题。超过 155 天没有移动的 1440 万比特币怎么办？当价格飙升时，它们会涌入市场吗？该研究假设其中很大一部分（约 576 万）已经永远消失、被锁定为战略储备或永远消失。但如果这些休眠的代币苏醒，所有的赌注都将落空。

What to Watch

看什么

Want to keep an eye on things yourself? The study recommends tracking these key indicators:

想亲自关注事情吗？该研究建议跟踪这些关键指标：

• Bitcoin balance on exchanges: A shrinking balance means tightening supply.
• ETF net inflow data: Strong inflows signal continued institutional demand.
• Proportion of supply held by long-term holders: A rising percentage means more coins are leaving circulation.
• Daily BTC net withdrawal from circulation: This gives you a sense of how many coins are truly disappearing from the market each day.

My Take

我的看法

Okay, so $4.81 million by 2036 sounds insane, right? But the underlying trends are hard to ignore. The supply is fixed, demand is rising, and institutions are gobbling up Bitcoins like there's no tomorrow. If the study's right about that 2 million liquid supply threshold, things could get really crazy in the next few years.

好吧，到 2036 年达到 481 万美元听起来很疯狂，对吧？但潜在的趋势很难被忽视。供应是固定的，需求在上升，机构正在吞噬比特币，就像没有明天一样。如果这项研究关于 200 万液体供应阈值的说法是正确的，那么未来几年事情可能会变得非常疯狂。

I'm not saying you should mortgage your house and YOLO into Bitcoin. But it might be time to dust off your crypto wallet and pay attention. This isn't just hype; there's real data backing up these bullish price targets.

我并不是说你应该把你的房子和 YOLO 抵押成比特币。但也许是时候掸掉你的加密钱包上的灰尘并注意了。这不仅仅是炒作，而是炒作。有真实数据支持这些看涨的价格目标。

The Bottom Line

底线

Whether Bitcoin hits $150,000 next month or $4.81 million in 2036, one thing's clear: the conversation around Bitcoin's potential is changing. Analysts are raising their targets, and the data suggests there's good reason to be optimistic. So, HODL on tight, folks. This ride is just getting started. And who knows, maybe we'll all be sipping champagne on our Lambos by 2028. A guy can dream, right?

无论比特币下个月达到 15 万美元，还是 2036 年达到 481 万美元，有一点是明确的：围绕比特币潜力的讨论正在发生变化。分析师正在提高他们的目标，数据表明有充分的理由保持乐观。所以，各位，HODL 一定要紧。这次旅程才刚刚开始。谁知道呢，也许到 2028 年我们都会开着兰博基尼喝香槟。人是可以梦想的，对吧？