美国核心通胀（CPI）意外下降后比特币价格上涨

在美国公布 12 月份新的通胀数据后，比特币价格出现上涨。这出乎意料的...

The Bitcoin price showed an upward movement after the publication of new inflation figures for the month of December in the US. This unexpected drop in core inflation brought optimism to the markets and affected not only cryptocurrencies but also traditional financial markets.

在美国公布 12 月份新的通胀数据后，比特币价格出现上涨。核心通胀的意外下降给市场带来了乐观情绪，不仅影响了加密货币，还影响了传统金融市场。

According to the latest facts from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, core inflation, which excludes volatile prices such as food and energy, rose just 0.2% in December. This was down from the 0.3% increase in November and marks the first decline in the annual core inflation rate since July. On an annual basis, core inflation came in at 3.2%, while analysts had expected a stable 3.3%. This means that core inflation has now been at a high of 3.3% for four months before finally starting to fall.

根据美国劳工统计局的最新数据，排除食品和能源等波动性价格的核心通胀，12 月份仅上涨 0.2%。这低于 11 月份 0.3% 的增幅，标志着年度核心通胀率自 7 月份以来首次下降。按年度计算，核心通胀率为 3.2%，而分析师此前预期稳定为 3.3%。这意味着核心通胀率在最终开始下降之前已经连续四个月处于 3.3% 的高位。

Although the overall consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.4% in December — slightly above analysts’ expectations — the annual increase remained at 2.9%, as forecast. This was an increase compared to the 2.7% measured in November. Nevertheless, the unexpected drop in core inflation caused a positive reaction in financial markets.

尽管 12 月份总体消费者价格指数 (CPI) 上涨 0.4%（略高于分析师预期），但全年涨幅仍如预测的 2.9%。与 11 月份测得的 2.7% 相比有所增长。尽管如此，核心通胀的意外下降引起了金融市场的积极反应。

The markets immediately reacted to the news. Shortly after the announcement, the Bitcoin price rose by $1,500 to $98,500. It has now risen further and stands at $99,146 at the time of writing, an increase of 3.4% within 24 hours. With this, Bitcoin continues to consolidate in a range just below the psychological barrier of $100,000. Since Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments in December, Bitcoin has struggled to break through this level. His ‘hawkish’ stance on monetary policy and stronger-than-expected economic data have significantly dampened expectations for further rate cuts.

市场立即对此消息做出反应。消息公布后不久，比特币价格上涨 1,500 美元，至 98,500 美元。现在进一步上涨，截至撰写本文时达到 99,146 美元，24 小时内上涨 3.4%。由此，比特币继续在略低于 10 万美元心理关口的区间内盘整。自美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔去年 12 月发表评论以来，比特币一直难以突破这一水平。他对货币政策的“鹰派”立场和强于预期的经济数据大大削弱了进一步降息的预期。

Not only the crypto market responded positively. U.S. stock futures rose about 0.5%, while Treasury yields fell. For example, the 10-year yield fell by 11 basis points to just under 4.7%. The value of the US dollar also saw a sharp decline.

不仅加密货币市场做出了积极反应。美国股指期货上涨约0.5%，而国债收益率下跌。例如，10年期国债收益率下跌11个基点至略低于4.7%。美元的价值也出现了大幅下跌。

Core inflation remains a key focus for Federal Reserve policymakers. Despite the decline in December, the costs of housing, insurance and medical care remain stubbornly high. In addition, used car prices have shown a strong increase for the third month in a row, with an increase of 1.2% in December after a 2% increase in November. These price increases highlight that inflationary pressures have not yet completely disappeared.

核心通胀仍然是美联储政策制定者关注的重点。尽管12月份有所下降，但住房、保险和医疗费用仍然居高不下。此外，二手车价格连续第三个月强劲上涨，继11月上涨2%后，12月上涨1.2%。这些价格上涨凸显通胀压力尚未完全消失。

Seasonal factors, such as higher fuel costs and continued food price increases, have further increased headline inflation rates. Still, the drop in core inflation offers some relief for investors and policymakers, who hope inflation will move closer to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

燃料成本上涨和食品价格持续上涨等季节性因素进一步提高了总体通胀率。尽管如此，核心通胀率的下降让投资者和政策制定者松了口气，他们希望通胀率能更接近美联储2%的目标。

In addition to economic data, the political situation in the United States plays a role in the inflation outlook. With Donald Trump’s upcoming inauguration as president, some economists predict that his proposed policies, such as high import tariffs, corporate tax cuts and immigration restrictions, could create inflationary pressures. These measures could pose challenges for the central bank in determining future interest rates.

除了经济数据外，美国的政治局势也对通胀前景产生影响。随着唐纳德·特朗普即将就任总统，一些经济学家预测，他提出的高进口关税、企业减税和移民限制等政策可能会造成通胀压力。这些措施可能会给央行确定未来利率带来挑战。

Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin have shown price movements throughout January that are closely linked to macroeconomic data and monetary policy expectations. The Bitcoin price has mainly traded between 10% and 15% below record levels as the market reacted to economic data and Federal Reserve policy.

比特币等加密货币一月份的价格走势与宏观经济数据和货币政策预期密切相关。随着市场对经济数据和美联储政策的反应，比特币价格主要下跌 10% 至 15%，低于历史最高水平。

Earlier in the week, Bitcoin suffered a sharp drop below $90,000 but recovered to $97,000 after cooler-than-expected inflation data in the producer price index (PPI). This once again highlights the volatility of the crypto market and its sensitivity to economic indicators.

本周早些时候，比特币大幅跌破 90,000 美元，但在生产者价格指数 (PPI) 通胀数据低于预期后恢复至 97,000 美元。这再次凸显了加密货币市场的波动性及其对经济指标的敏感性。

As investors prepare for the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate meeting, the Bitcoin price remains an interesting gauge of market sentiment. With the decline in core inflation, new speculation may arise about the possibility of rate cuts later this year, which could benefit risky assets such as cryptocurrencies. However, persistent uncertainty about inflation and monetary policy is likely to continue to weigh on markets for some time to come.

随着投资者为美联储下一次利率会议做准备，比特币价格仍然是衡量市场情绪的一个有趣指标。随着核心通胀的下降，可能会出现关于今年晚些时候降息可能性的新猜测，这可能有利于加密货币等风险资产。然而，通胀和货币政策的持续不确定性可能会在未来一段时间内继续给市场带来压力。