由于Polymarket数据显示唐纳德·特朗普推出战略性比特币储备的可能性下降，比特币价格仍然处于边缘状态

BTC 从本周接近 100000 美元的高点回落至 96000 美元。

Bitcoin (BTC) price remained on edge on January 19 as Polymarket data showed that the odds of Donald Trump launching a Strategic BTC reserve have fallen. As a result, BTC price dropped to $96,000, down from this week’s high of nearly $100,000.

1 月 19 日，比特币 (BTC) 价格仍处于紧张状态，因为 Polymarket 数据显示，唐纳德·特朗普 (Donald Trump) 推出战略 BTC 储备的可能性有所下降。结果，BTC 价格跌至 96,000 美元，低于本周近 100,000 美元的高点。

The odds of Trump launching a strategic Bitcoin Reserves in the first 100 days of his presidency dropped in Polymarket. In a poll with over $1.5 million in assets, these odds dropped to 31%, down from over 60% in November.

Polymarket 认为，特朗普在就任总统的头 100 天内推出战略性比特币储备的可能性有所下降。在一项资产超过 150 万美元的民意调查中，这一比例从 11 月份的 60% 以上降至 31%。

Trump has vowed to be the most pro-crypto president ever as he positions the US to be the leader in the industry. He has already named Paul Atkins to be the next head of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

特朗普发誓要成为有史以来最支持加密货币的总统，因为他将美国定位为该行业的领导者。他已经任命保罗·阿特金斯为下一任美国证券交易委员会（SEC）主席。

The US president has also started to create the first crypto council, an effort led by a prominent technology investor at Craft Ventures. The investor has experience working at several crypto projects, including Bitwise, Trellis, and Affirm. Most notably, he founded World Liberty Financial, an upcoming crypto project.

美国总统还开始创建第一个加密货币委员会，该委员会由 Craft Ventures 的一位著名技术投资者领导。该投资者拥有多个加密项目的工作经验，包括 Bitwise、Trellis 和 Affirm。最值得注意的是，他创立了 World Liberty Financial，这是一个即将推出的加密项目。

In December, Trump expressed some support to a strategic Bitcoin Reserve, by converting the US hoard of coins. Data by BitcoinTreasuries shows that the US holds 198,109 coins valued at over $18 billion, which it can convert into these reserves.

去年 12 月，特朗普通过转换美国的比特币储备来表达对战略性比特币储备的一些支持。 BitcoinTreasuries 的数据显示，美国持有 198,109 枚比特币，价值超过 180 亿美元，可以将其转换为储备。

A move by the US to create a Bitcoin reserve would push other countries to do the same. China already owns 190,000 coins, while the UK, Ukraine, Bhutan, and El Salvador already own thousands of coins.

美国建立比特币储备的举措将促使其他国家也采取同样的做法。中国已拥有 19 万枚硬币，而英国、乌克兰、不丹和萨尔瓦多已拥有数千枚硬币。

Such a move would also lead to a scramble for the already dwindling Bitcoins. CoinGlass data shows that Bitcoin balances in exchanges has continued falling and now sits near the lowest level in years.

此举还将导致对已经在减少的比特币的争夺。 CoinGlass 数据显示，交易所中的比特币余额持续下降，目前接近多年来的最低水平。

Bitcoin has a supply limit of 21 million, and 19.8 million have already been mined. This means that only 1.2 million coins will ever be mined. Therefore, with difficulty rising, the coin will likely rise in the long term.

比特币的供应上限为 2100 万枚，目前已开采 1980 万枚。这意味着只会开采 120 万枚代币。因此，在上涨难度较大的情况下，长期来看该币很可能会上涨。

Bitcoin price analysis

比特币价格分析

The daily chart shows that the BTC price peaked at $108.230 in December and has now dropped to $96,000. It has moved below the lower side of the ascending channel and formed what looks like a bearish flag pattern.

日线图显示，BTC 价格在 12 月份达到峰值 108.230 美元，目前已跌至 96,000 美元。它已经移动到上升通道下侧下方，并形成了看起来像看跌旗形的形态。

On the positive side, the coin has remained above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average, meaning that the uptrend is still intact.

从积极的一面来看，该代币仍保持在 50 日指数移动平均线之上，这意味着上升趋势仍然完好无损。

However, there is also a risk that the coin will crash to the support at $74,000, the upper side in March and then resume the uptrend.

然而，也存在一种风险，即该代币将跌至 74,000 美元的支撑位（3 月份的上方），然后恢复上升趋势。