为什么比特币价格到年底可以达到 10 万美元

加密货币分析师 Ash Crypto 概述了比特币价格有望在今年年底达到 10 万美元的几个原因。

Crypto analyst Ash Crypto has outlined several reasons why he believes the Bitcoin price is poised to reach $100,000 by the end of the year.

加密货币分析师 Ash Crypto 概述了他认为比特币价格将在今年年底达到 10 万美元的几个原因。

This price level is one that other market experts, like Standard Chartered, have predicted that the flagship crypto could hit even before year-end.

渣打银行等其他市场专家预测，旗舰加密货币甚至可能在年底前达到这一价格水平。

Why The Bitcoin Price Can Reach $100,000 In The Fourth Quarter

为何第四季度比特币价格能达到10万美元

Ash Crypto stated in an X post that the answer to whether BTC will reach $100,000 in the fourth quarter of this year lies in the past halving cycles. He noted that BTC usually goes through a consolidation phase of around six months after each halving.

Ash Crypto 在 X 帖子中表示，BTC 在今年第四季度能否达到 10 万美元的答案在于过去的减半周期。他指出，比特币通常会在每次减半后经历六个月左右的整合阶段。

In 2016, the flagship crypto is said to have witnessed 161 days of consolidation before a price breakout. Meanwhile, in 2020, Bitcoin recorded 175 days of consolidation before its price broke out.

2016 年，据说旗舰加密货币在价格突破之前经历了 161 天的盘整。与此同时，2020 年，比特币在价格爆发之前经历了 175 天的盘整。

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In line with this, Ash Crypto noted that the flagship crypto has consolidated for 161 days since the Halving event in April earlier this year. Therefore, the analyst claimed that there is a high probability that the Bitcoin price could witness a breakout in the next two to three weeks.

与此相一致的是，Ash Crypto 指出，自今年 4 月早些时候的减半事件以来，旗舰加密货币已经整合了 161 天。因此，该分析师认为，未来两到三周内，比特币价格大概率会出现突破。

He then went on to outline fundamentals that could spark this price breakout.

然后，他继续概述了可能引发此次价格突破的基本面。

Firstly, Ash Crypto stated that China is printing $280 billion to boost its economy. This is about the People Bank of China’s announcement of a stimulus package to help revive the country’s economy.

首先，Ash Crypto 表示，中国正在印制 2800 亿美元来提振经济。这是关于中国人民银行宣布的刺激计划以帮助重振国家经济。

China’s monetary easing policies have been bullish for Bitcoin, historically leading to price surges for the flagship crypto.

中国的货币宽松政策一直有利于比特币，历史上曾导致旗舰加密货币的价格飙升。

Furthermore, the analyst noted that the US Federal Reserve has started cutting interest rates. The Fed announced a 50 basis points (bps) rate cut at its September FOMC meeting.

此外，分析师指出，美联储已开始降息。美联储在 9 月 FOMC 会议上宣布降息 50 个基点 (bps)。

There are also expectations that there could be another 50 bps rate cut before the year ends. This is also bullish for the Bitcoin price since more liquidity could flow into the flagship crypto with US investors having access to more capital.

还有人预计年底前可能会再次降息 50 个基点。这也有利于比特币价格，因为更多的流动性可能会流入旗舰加密货币，而美国投资者可以获得更多的资本。

Another macro factor that the analyst cited is the fact that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) looks to have turned dovish and is, in the meantime, no longer considering rate hikes.

该分析师提到的另一个宏观因素是日本央行（BOJ）看起来已经变得鸽派，同时不再考虑加息。

The Bitcoin price crashed below $50,000 in the infamous August 5 crypto market following the BOJ’s decision to raise interest rates for the first time in 17 years.

在日本央行决定 17 年来首次加息后，8 月 5 日臭名昭著的加密货币市场中，比特币价格跌破 50,000 美元。

Therefore, the BOJ’s decision not to hike rates further is positive for Bitcoin. Doing otherwise could revive the ghosts of the yen carry trade as Japanese investors liquidate their positions in risk assets like BTC.

因此，日本央行决定不再进一步加息对比特币有利。否则，随着日本投资者清算比特币等风险资产的头寸，日元套利交易的阴影可能会重演。

Other Factors That Could Spark The Rise To $100,000 In The Fourth Quarter

其他可能导致第四季度股价上涨至 100,000 美元的因素

Ash Crypto also listed other factors that could help the Bitcoin price reach $100,000.

Ash Crypto 还列出了可能帮助比特币价格达到 10 万美元的其他因素。

The analyst noted that Donald Trump is again leading in the opinion polls and looks likely to win the US presidential elections in November. A Trump victory is considered a win for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market because the former US President has declared his support for cryptocurrencies.

分析师指出，唐纳德·特朗普在民意调查中再次领先，看起来有可能赢得 11 月的美国总统大选。特朗普的胜利被认为是比特币和更广泛的加密货币市场的胜利，因为这位美国前总统已宣布支持加密货币。

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The analyst also cited the Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have started to accumulate again. The Bitcoin flow to exchange has also reached a very low level, which indicates that investors are choosing to hold for the long term, meaning less selling pressure.

该分析师还引用了现货比特币 ETF 的情况，该ETF已再次开始积累。流向交易所的比特币也达到了非常低的水平，这表明投资者选择长期持有，这意味着抛售压力较小。

FTX customers are also expected to receive their repayments this quarter, which could cause more liquidity to flow into Bitcoin.

FTX 客户预计也将在本季度收到还款，这可能会导致更多流动性流入比特币。

Lastly, Russia plans to use cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin for cross-border payments starting in November, while the global money supply has reached new highs. Therefore, the Bitcoin price is currently bullish.

最后，俄罗斯计划从 11 月开始使用比特币等加密货币进行跨境支付，而全球货币供应量已达到新高。因此，目前比特币价格看涨。

Interestingly, Ash Crypto claimed that the crypto market has still not factored in all these bullish fundamentals. He stated that Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high (ATH) when that happens.

有趣的是，Ash Crypto 声称加密市场仍然没有考虑到所有这些看涨的基本面。他表示，当这种情况发生时，比特币将达到新的历史高点（ATH）。