比特币价格预测：2025 年底 BTC 预计将达到 20 万美元

在机构参与者前所未有的需求推动下，到 2025 年底，比特币的价格预计将达到 20 万美元

Bitcoin’s price could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, driven by institutional demand, Bernstein analysts predict.

Bernstein 分析师预测，在机构需求的推动下，到 2025 年底，比特币的价格可能会达到 20 万美元。

Bitcoin’s price is expected to reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, driven by unprecedented demand from institutional players, according to Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra.

Bernstein 分析师 Gautam Chhugani 和 Mahika Sapra 表示，在机构参与者前所未有的需求推动下，比特币的价格预计到 2025 年底将达到 200,000 美元。

The analysts have updated their previous estimate of $150,000 for the world’s largest cryptocurrency.

分析师更新了之前对全球最大加密货币 15 万美元的估计。

The bullish outlook is attributed to the growth in spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) managed by BlackRock, Fidelity, and Franklin Templeton, the analysts said in a note on Monday. They project that these ETFs will manage around $190 billion in assets by 2025, up from the current $60 billion.

分析师在周一的一份报告中表示，看涨前景归因于贝莱德、富达和富兰克林邓普顿管理的现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）的增长。他们预计，到 2025 年，这些 ETF 将管理约 1900 亿美元的资产，高于目前的 600 亿美元。

The recent bitcoin halving event, which reduced the miners’ block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, has further constrained the supply of new bitcoin. This reduction in supply, combined with increasing demand, is expected to significantly impact Bitcoin’s price.

最近的比特币减半事件，将矿工的区块奖励从 6.25 BTC 减少到 3.125 BTC，进一步限制了新比特币的供应。供应的减少加上需求的增加，预计将对比特币的价格产生重大影响。

The analysts highlighted that the new supply of bitcoin has fallen from an average of 900 BTC per day to 450 BTC per day.

分析师强调，比特币的新增供应量已从平均每天 900 BTC 下降到每天 450 BTC。

Price Prediction Model

价格预测模型

Chhugani and Sapra predict that bitcoin could rally to 1.5 times its marginal cost of production by mid-2025, implying a cycle high of $200,000. They base this prediction on historical price movements, noting that Bitcoin has previously rallied to multiple times its marginal cost of production.

Chhugani 和 Sapra 预测，到 2025 年中期，比特币可能会上涨至其边际生产成本的 1.5 倍，这意味着周期高点为 20 万美元。他们的这一预测基于历史价格走势，并指出比特币此前已上涨至其边际生产成本的数倍。

For instance, Bitcoin peaked in 2017 at five times the marginal costs of production and bottomed in 2018 at 0.8 times. In 22021, it rose to around 2.3 times the marginal cost before bottoming at 0.7 times in 2022.

例如，比特币在 2017 年达到顶峰，是边际生产成本的 5 倍，并在 2018 年触底，为 0.8 倍。 22021 年，它升至边际成本的 2.3 倍左右，并于 2022 年触底至 0.7 倍。

Long-Term Outlook

长期展望

Beyond 2025, Bernstein analysts are even more optimistic. They estimate that bitcoin could reach $500,000 by the end of 2029 and $1 million by 2033. This long-term forecast is based on continued institutional adoption and the constrained supply dynamics of bitcoin.

2025 年之后，伯恩斯坦分析师的看法更加乐观。他们估计，到 2029 年底，比特币的价格可能会达到 50 万美元，到 2033 年将达到 100 万美元。这一长期预测是基于机构的持续采用和比特币供应动态的限制。

As of now, bitcoin is trading at $67,123. It has surged about 70% to $66,900 since the beginning of the year, reaching a new all-time high of $73,700 in March. The rally has strengthened the confidence of Bitcoin bulls, with some predicting even higher milestones by the end of the year.

截至目前，比特币交易价格为 67,123 美元。自年初以来已飙升约 70% 至 66,900 美元，并于 3 月份创下 73,700 美元的历史新高。此次反弹增强了比特币多头的信心，一些人预测到年底比特币将达到更高的里程碑。

Galaxy Digital founder and CEO Mike Novogratz recently forecasted that Bitcoin could hit $100,000 by the end of 2024.

Galaxy Digital 创始人兼首席执行官 Mike Novogratz 最近预测，到 2024 年底，比特币可能会达到 10 万美元。