减半后比特币价格预计将飙升 160% 以上，达到 15 万美元

With only 10 days left until the much-awaited halving, Bitcoin is still trading above the $70,000 psychological level, bolstering bullish long-term price predictions from market analysts.

距离期待已久的减半只剩下 10 天了，比特币的交易价格仍高于 70,000 美元的心理水平，支撑了市场分析师看涨的长期价格预测。

Following the halving, Bitcoin (BTC) price could appreciate over 160% to reach a cycle top of above $150,000, according to a research report by Bitfinex analysts, shared with Cointelegraph.

根据 Bitfinex 分析师与 Cointelegraph 分享的一份研究报告，减半后，比特币 (BTC) 价格可能会上涨 160% 以上，达到 15 万美元以上的周期顶部。

“Using a straightforward regression model, we predict a 160% post-halving price surge in the next 14 months, taking the price to between $150,000 - $169,000.”

Bitcoin fell 2.2% in the 24 hours leading up to 11:50 am UTC, to trade at $70,694. The world’s first cryptocurrency is up over 7.5% on the weekly chart, according to CoinMarketCap data.

“使用简单的回归模型，我们预测未来 14 个月减半后价格将飙升 160%，使价格达到 150,000 至 169,000 美元之间。” 比特币在截至 UTC 上午 11:50 的 24 小时内下跌 2.2%，交易价格为 70,694 美元。根据 CoinMarketCap 数据，全球第一种加密货币在周线图上上涨了 7.5% 以上。

However, the analysts note that there is more built-up selling pressure, as opposed to previous cycles, due to Bitcoin hitting a new all-time high before the halving, for the first time in crypto history.

BTC/USDT，1 个月图表。资料来源：CoinMarketCap 然而，分析师指出，与之前的周期相比，由于比特币在减半之前创下了历史新高，这是加密货币历史上的首次，因此出现了更大的抛售压力。

While this is a sign of confidence for Bitcoin bulls, it could also introduce significant selling pressure, as 1.87 million BTC, or 9.5% of the circulating supply, was bought above the $60,000 mark. The analysts noted:

虽然这是比特币多头信心十足的迹象，但也可能带来巨大的抛售压力，因为 187 万枚 BTC（占流通供应量的 9.5%）在 6 万美元大关上方被买入。分析师指出：

“This underscores the active engagement of Short-Term Holders at higher prices, reflecting evolving ownership dynamics amidst market activity and institutional influence through spot ETFs. Increased entity movement suggests a shift in the cycle towards the gradual distribution of dormant supply and profit-taking.”

However, Bitcoin prices could see a sharp decline during the halving period due to the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening, which is removing liquidity from markets. Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX, wrote in an April 8 blog post:

“这凸显了短期持有者以更高价格积极参与，反映了市场活动中不断变化的所有权动态以及通过现货 ETF 产生的机构影响力。实体流动的增加表明周期正在转向休眠供应和获利回吐的逐步分配。”然而，由于美联储的量化紧缩政策导致市场流动性减少，比特币价格可能会在减半期间大幅下跌。 BitMEX 联合创始人 Arthur Hayes 在 4 月 8 日的博客文章中写道：

“That is why I believe Bitcoin and crypto prices in general will slump around the halving [...] It will add propellant to a raging firesale of crypto assets.”

Related: How high can Bitcoin go? New BTC price prediction sees cycle top at $180K

“这就是为什么我相信比特币和加密货币价格总体将在减半前后暴跌……这将为加密资产的疯狂抛售增添动力。”相关：比特币能涨到多高？新的 BTC 价格预测预计周期顶部为 18 万美元

Bitcoin ETFs amass 4.28% of circulating BTC supply

The inflows from the United States spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been a significant part of Bitcoin’s price rally.

比特币 ETF 占据了 BTC 流通供应量的 4.28% 来自美国现货比特币交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的资金流入是比特币价格上涨的重要组成部分。

By Feb. 15, the Bitcoin ETFs accounted for about 75% of new investment in the world’s largest cryptocurrency as it surpassed the $50,000 mark, according to CryptoQuant research.

根据 CryptoQuant 的研究，截至 2 月 15 日，比特币 ETF 约占全球最大加密货币新增投资的 75%，其价格已突破 50,000 美元大关。

Since their launch, the Bitcoin ETFs amassed over 841,900 BTC, worth $59.2 billion, which represents 4.28% of the Bitcoin’s circulating supply.

自推出以来，比特币 ETF 已积累了超过 841,900 BTC，价值 592 亿美元，占比特币流通供应量的 4.28%。

With the accumulation pattern of the past two weeks, the Bitcoin ETFs are set to absorb 2.6% of Bitcoin supply per year, according to Dune.

根据 Dune 的说法，根据过去两周的积累模式，比特币 ETF 每年将吸收 2.6% 的比特币供应量。

Bitcoin ETFs amassed over $500 million worth of net inflows last week, with a total of $286 million worth of daily net inflows on April 8, during this week's first trading day, according to Dune data.

比特币 ETF 流程图。资料来源：Dune 数据显示，DuneBitcoin ETF 上周累计净流入超过 5 亿美元，其中 4 月 8 日（本周第一个交易日）每日净流入总额达 2.86 亿美元。

Related: 10 days until halving: Bitcoin mining profitability won’t necessarily fall

相关：距减半还有 10 天：比特币挖矿盈利能力不一定会下降