分析师称比特币价格将达到 10 万美元甚至更高

分析师表示，许多宏观经济因素将推动比特币的价格达到 10 万美元甚至更高。

Several macroeconomic factors will push Bitcoin’s price to $100,000 and beyond, analysts say.

分析师表示，一些宏观经济因素将推动比特币的价格达到 10 万美元甚至更高。

Their comments come as the world’s biggest cryptocurrency fell below the $60,000 mark over the weekend, which may be dampening traders’ faith in the crypto rally.

他们发表此番言论之际，全球最大的加密货币周末跌破 60,000 美元大关，这可能会削弱交易者对加密货币反弹的信心。

But there is reason to be bullish, crypto analyst Noelle Acheson says.

但加密货币分析师诺埃尔·艾奇逊表示，我们有理由看涨。

Bitcoin’s price climbed some 270% from the end of August to the end of December in 2020, after the previous halving, she noted in her “Crypto is Macro” newsletter on Sunday.

她在周日的《加密是宏观》时事通讯中指出，在上次减半之后，2020 年 8 月底到 12 月底，比特币的价格上涨了约 270%。

By comparison, Bitcoin now only has to climb some 70% to reach $100,000.

相比之下，比特币现在只需上涨约 70% 即可达到 10 万美元。

That “is not an outrageous forecast,” she added, acknowledging that things are different than in 2020.

她补充道，这“并不是一个离谱的预测”，并承认情况与 2020 年有所不同。

Others share the sentiment.

其他人也有同样的感受。

“The macro is evolving perfectly in line for Bitcoin to resume the trend higher, yet we continue to await the spark,” wrote David Brickell, head of international distribution at FRNT Financial, and former forex trader Chris Mill, in their latest “Connecting the Dots” newsletter.

FRNT Financial 国际分销主管 David Brickell 和前外汇交易员 Chris Mill 在他们最新的《连接比特币点”通讯。

So what will drive the price of Bitcoin?

那么什么会推动比特币的价格呢？

The Fed

美联储

Jerome Powell budged on August 23.

杰罗姆·鲍威尔 (Jerome Powell) 于 8 月 23 日做出了让步。

After months of hemming and hawing, the chair of the Federal Reserve gave his strongest hints to date that the central bank is about to cut interest rates.

经过几个月的支支吾吾，美联储主席给出了迄今为止最强烈​​的暗示，即央行即将降息。

“The time has come for policy to adjust,” Powell said at the Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, in Wyoming.

“政策调整的时候到了，”鲍威尔在怀俄明州堪萨斯城联储杰克逊霍尔经济研讨会上表示。

That’s great news for assets like cryptocurrencies, which tend to behave as risk-on assets and are particularly susceptible to accommodative economic environments.

这对于加密货币等资产来说是个好消息，因为它们往往表现为风险资产，并且特别容易受到宽松的经济环境的影响。

Or, as Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, put it in a recent newsletter: rate cuts “inject some animal spirits into the market.”

或者，正如 Bitwise 首席投资官 Matt Hougan 在最近的一份时事通讯中所说：降息“为市场注入了一些动物精神”。

FedWatch data puts the odds of the Fed cutting rates by 0.25% at 69% in September, and a 31% chance it will cut rates by 0.5%.

FedWatch数据显示，美联储9月降息0.25%的可能性为69%，降息0.5%的可能性为31%。

Market watchers have waited on these cuts for months.

市场观察人士等待这些降息已经有几个月了。

Back in February, Fundstrat Global Advisors’ Thomas Lee argued that cuts will drive Bitcoin’s price to $150,000 by the end of 2024 and then to $500,000 over the next five years.

早在 2 月份，Fundstrat Global Advisors 的 Thomas Lee 就表示，减产将使比特币的价格在 2024 年底前达到 15 万美元，然后在未来五年内达到 50 万美元。

Everything is politics

一切都是政治

The upcoming presidential election will also influence the price, analysts say.

分析师称，即将到来的总统选举也将影响价格。

In November, the US electorate will pick between Donald Trump, and Kamala Harris. For crypto voters, it’s a choice between one candidate who has made several pro-crypto statements and one who hasn’t made her views on the matter clear.

十一月，美国选民将在唐纳德·特朗普和卡马拉·哈里斯之间做出选择。对于加密货币选民来说，这是在一位发表了多项支持加密货币声明的候选人和一位尚未明确表达自己对此事的看法的候选人之间做出的选择。

The election seemed like a foregone conclusion before Biden bowed out. Now, however, Trump and Harris are neck-and-neck in polls, which has created more uncertainty and driven down the price, Acheson has said.

在拜登退出之前，选举似乎已成定局。然而，艾奇逊表示，现在特朗普和哈里斯在民意调查中旗鼓相当，这带来了更多的不确定性并压低了价格。

The Treasury

财政部

The election will also affect the policies of Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, according to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX.

BitMEX 联合创始人阿瑟·海斯 (Arthur Hayes) 表示，这次选举还将影响财政部长珍妮特·耶伦 (Janet Yellen) 的政策。

In a recent blog, he wrote that he expects Yellen to stack the cards in Harris’ favour by pouring as much as $1 trillion into markets — boosting liquidity for traders.

他在最近的一篇博客中写道，他预计耶伦将向市场注入多达 1 万亿美元，从而增加交易员的流动性，从而为哈里斯赢得胜利。

“The next stop for Bitcoin is $100,000,” Hayes said.

海耶斯表示：“比特币的下一站是 10 万美元。”

Traditional players

传统玩家

The launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds this year have cemented Wall Street’s interest in crypto. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have revealed that they hold over $600 million between them in spot Bitcoin ETFs.

今年推出的现货比特币交易所交易基金巩固了华尔街对加密货币的兴趣。高盛和摩根士丹利透露，他们持有超过 6 亿美元的现货比特币 ETF。

Crypto-native asset manager HashDex says those disclosures signal that institutional players, including, eventually, pension funds, will tap into the industry.

加密原生资产管理公司 HashDex 表示，这些披露表明机构参与者，包括养老基金，最终将进入该行业。

Politicos warming up

政治升温

While the crypto views of Harris remain unclear, both Democrats and Republicans have warmed to crypto.

尽管哈里斯对加密货币的看法仍不清楚，但民主党人和共和党人都对加密货币产生了热情。

In May, members from both parties voted to overturn SAB 121, a controversial accounting guidance from the Securities and Exchange Commission, which critics say has deterred investment banks from offering crypto custody at scale.

今年 5 月，两党成员投票推翻了 SAB 121，这是美国证券交易委员会 (Securities and Exchange Commission) 一项有争议的会计指南，批评者称该指南阻碍了投资银行大规模提供加密货币托管服务。

Capitol Hill’s thawing attitude towards crypto is one of the many factors that make “the long-term setup for Bitcoin is overwhelmingly positive,” Hougan said.

霍根表示，国会山对加密货币的态度解冻是“比特币的长期发展极其积极”的众多因素之一。

“We have record ETF inflows, rapid institutional adoption, the after-effects of the Bitcoin halving, a warming political and regulatory environment, and runaway federal deficits,” he said. “It’s hard to imagine better conditions.”

他表示：“我们的 ETF 流入创纪录、机构快速采用、比特币减半的后果、政治和监管环境变暖以及联邦赤字失控。” “很难想象更好的条件。”

Crypto market movers

加密货币市场推动者

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