比特币的价格持续了一次波动性，将5％的价格降至80,000美元以下

比特币的价格在周末遭受了另一场波动率，周日下跌了5％，低于80,000美元

Bitcoin (BTC) price endured another bout of volatility over the weekend, shedding 5% on Sunday to dip below the $80,000 mark, before settling near $82,000. This latest decline places the cryptocurrency roughly 25% below its all-time high of $109,900.

比特币（BTC）的价格在周末持续了一次波动性，在周日下跌了5％，低于80,000美元的大关，然后定居接近82,000美元。最新的下降使加密货币低于其历史最高高点109,900美元。

The downturn can be attributed to ongoing trade tensions, linked to President Donald Trump’s latest tariff measures, and the fears of a looming recession.

低迷可能归因于持续的贸易紧张局势，与唐纳德·特朗普总统的最新关税措施以及对迫在眉睫的衰退的担忧有关。

However, a weakening US Dollar Index (DXY), which has fallen from 110 to 103 since mid-January, coinciding with Trump’s second term in office and could be a potential bullish catalyst for the Bitcoin price.

但是，自1月中旬以来，美元指数（DXY）削弱了，该指数从110降至103，与特朗普的第二个任期相吻合，可能是比特币价格的可能的看涨催化剂。

In a series of posts on X, Jamie Coutts, the Chief Crypto Analyst at Realvision, offers a look at the current market environment, highlighting two key metrics that could shape central bank policy—and, by extension, Bitcoin’s trajectory. “Bitcoin is like playing a game of Chicken with central banks,” Coutts writes.

在X上的一系列帖子中，Realvision的首席加密分析师Jamie Coutts提供了当前的市场环境，强调了两个可以塑造中央银行政策的关键指标，并扩展了比特币的轨迹。 “比特币就像在与中央银行一起玩鸡游戏，”库茨写道。

He explained that while the dollar’s recent decline supports a bullish framework for Bitcoin, rising Treasury bond volatility (tracked by the MOVE Index) and widening corporate bond spreads are causing concern: Coutts emphasized the role of US Treasuries as the global collateral asset. Any spike in their volatility, he argued, forces lenders to impose larger haircuts on collateral, tightening liquidity.

他解释说，尽管美元最近的下降支持比特币的看涨框架，债券债券的上升（按移动指数跟踪）和扩大公司债券的差异引起了人们的关注：Coutts强调了美国国债作为全球核心资产的作用。他认为，任何波动性的尖峰都迫使贷方在抵押品上施加更大的发型，从而收紧流动性。

“Rising volatility forces lenders to apply haircuts on collateral, thereby tightening liquidity. […] Above 110 [on the MOVE Index] and I suspect there will be a few concerns at the central planner levels.”

“随着波动的上升迫使贷方在抵押品上应用发型，从而收紧了流动性。 […]以上110 [移动指数]，我怀疑中央规划师级别会有一些担忧。”

Over the past three weeks, US investment-grade corporate bond spreads have been widening, a shift Coutts views as a signal that risk assets—including Bitcoin—could face pressure.

在过去的三周中，美国投资级公司债券的价差一直在扩大，COUTTS的转变视为一种信号，即风险资产（包括比特币）可能会面临压力。

“This suggests that the demand keeping yields compressed relative to Treasuries is fading—and further widening could be negative for risk assets.”

“这表明，相对于国债的需求保持收益率正在逐渐消失，进一步扩大可能对风险资产负面。”

Despite these cautionary flags, Coutres remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s medium-term prospects, primarily due to the dollar’s “rapid decline.” He noted that the dollar’s drop in March—one of the most significant monthly dips in 12 years—historically has coincided with bullish inflection points in Bitcoin’s price. According to his research, “They have all occurred at Bitcoin bear market troughs (inflection points) or mid-cycle bull markets (trend continuations).”

尽管有这些警告的旗帜，但库特雷斯仍然对比特币的中期前景保持乐观，这主要是由于美元的“迅速下降”。他指出，三月份的美元下降（12年来最重要的每月下降之一）在历史上与比特币价格的看涨拐点相吻合。根据他的研究，“它们都发生在比特币熊市场槽（拐点）或中期牛市（趋势延续）。”

While acknowledging the limited historical dataset for Bitcoin, Coutts also cited key catalysts he believes could propel the digital asset higher:

COUTT承认比特币的历史数据集有限，但他认为他认为可以推动数字资产更高的关键催化剂：

Coutts also mentioned that Bitcoin appears to be “filling a big gap” and reiterated his view that a slide below the high-$70,000 range would signal a fundamental market shift. Meanwhile, he sees central bankers edging closer to possible intervention as Treasury volatility and credit spreads climb:

Coutts还提到比特币似乎是“填补了很大的空白”，并重申了他的观点，即高达70,000美元的幻灯片将标志着基本的市场变化。同时，他认为中央银行越来越接近可能的干预措施，因为国库的波动和信贷差异攀升：

“If Treasury volatility and bond spreads keep rising, asset prices will continue their decline. Meanwhile, this will likely push the central planners to act.”

“如果财政部的波动和债券利差不断上升，资产价格将继续下降。同时，这可能会促使中央计划者采取行动。”

In closing, Coutts offered a concise summary of why he believes Bitcoin is effectively locked in a showdown with central banks:

结束时，库特（Coutts）简要摘要说明了为什么他认为比特币有效地锁定了与中央银行的摊牌：

“Think of Bitcoin as a high-stakes game of chicken with the central planners. With their options dwindling—and assuming HODLers remain unleveraged—the odds are increasingly in the Bitcoin owner’s favor.”

“将比特币视为与中央计划者的高风险鸡肉游戏。随着他们的选择减少，并且假设霍德勒人仍然没有掌握，那么对比特币所有者的赔率越来越多。”

For now, the world’s largest cryptocurrency appears to be treading a line between macroeconomic headwinds—highlighted by a volatile bond market—and the tailwinds of a weakening dollar. Whether Bitcoin continues to retreat or resumes its long-term ascent will likely depend on how global policymakers respond to mounting bond market pressures—and whether holders are prepared to keep playing “chicken” with the central planners.

目前，世界上最大的加密货币似乎正在踩在宏观经济逆风之间的界限（在一个动荡的债券市场中，都在较弱的美元范围内，而且美元弱。比特币是否继续撤退或恢复其长期上升可能取决于全球决策者如何应对债券市场压力的越来越多，以及持有人是否准备继续与中央计划者一起玩“鸡”。

At press time, BTC traded at $82,091.

发稿时，BTC的交易价格为82,091美元。