比特币价格，亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）和牛市：街上的词是什么？

分析亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）看涨比特币的预测以及最近的市场趋势，以了解新的历史最高水平的可能性。

Bitcoin is buzzing, folks! Arthur Hayes is bullish, ETFs are flowing, and even housing policies are getting crypto-friendly. Let's dive into what's fueling this potential bull run.

比特币嗡嗡作响，伙计们！亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）是看好的，ETF在流动，甚至住房政策也越来越友好。让我们深入了解这种潜在的公牛跑动。

Hayes's Hot Take: Regulatory Shifts and Crypto's Future

海斯的热门看法：监管转变和加密货币的未来

Arthur Hayes, the BitMEX co-founder, isn't shy about his bullish outlook. He's pointing to key regulatory changes in the U.S. as major catalysts. Specifically, he's eyeing the potential reinstatement of the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) exemption, which would free up banks to play with crypto. Plus, the Genius Act, potentially handing the stablecoin market to banks, is another factor. Hayes believes this regulatory environment is setting the stage for a major crypto rally.

Bitmex联合创始人亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）对他看涨的看法并不害羞。他指出，美国的主要监管变化是主要的催化剂。具体来说，他正在关注补充杠杆比率（SLR）豁免的潜在恢复原状，该豁免将释放银行与Crypto一起玩。另外，《天才法案》可能将稳定市场交给银行是另一个因素。海耶斯认为，这种监管环境为重大加密集会奠定了基础。

Hayes urges investors to ignore the political noise and focus on the market signals. He sees stablecoin market cap surges as a strong indicator of capital flowing back into crypto.

海耶斯敦促投资者忽略政治噪音，并专注于市场信号。他认为，Stablecoin市值飙升是资本流入加密货币的有力指标。

ETF Mania and Housing Market Love: Bitcoin Gets a Boost

ETF躁狂和住房市场爱情：比特币得到了提升

It's not just Hayes hyping things up. Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. are attracting serious inflows, showing strong institutional demand. And get this: the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) is instructing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to recognize crypto assets when evaluating mortgage eligibility! Talk about mainstream adoption. This move signals a long-term bullish trend, integrating crypto into traditional finance.

这不仅是Hays炒作。美国的现场比特币ETF吸引了严重的流入，显示出强烈的机构需求。并得到这个：联邦住房融资局（FHFA）指示房利美和房地美麦克在评估抵押资格时承认加密货币资产！谈论主流采用。此举标志着长期看涨趋势，将加密货币纳入传统金融。

Technical Indicators Pointing Upward

指向上向上的技术指标

Technically speaking, Bitcoin is showing a strong V-shaped recovery. Analysts like Ran Neuner are predicting a new all-time high could arrive in as little as 42 days, driven by a steady climb rather than a sudden spike.

从技术上讲，比特币显示出强大的V形恢复。像Ran Neuner这样的分析师预测，在稳定的攀登而不是突然的尖峰的驱动下，新的历史最高水平可能只有42天。

Jerome Powell's testimony, hinting at potential interest rate cuts, is also fueling the fire. Lower rates often boost risk-on assets like Bitcoin. And with the U.S. dollar weakening, Wall Street is cheering, with the NASDAQ hitting new all-time highs.

杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）的证词暗示了潜在的降低利率，这也助长了大火。较低的利率通常会提高像比特币这样的风险资产。随着美元削弱，华尔街欢呼雀跃，纳斯达克岛上的历史新高。

A Word of Caution: Not All Altcoins Will Shine

注意：并非所有的altcoins都会发光

While Bitcoin is looking prime for a breakout, don't expect all altcoins to follow suit. The altcoin rally will likely be selective, favoring tokens backed by institutional interest. So, do your research before diving into the altcoin pool.

虽然比特币希望突破，但不要指望所有山寨币都会效仿。 AltCoin集会可能会有选择性，有利于由机构利益支持的代币。因此，在潜入Altcoin池之前进行研究。

Is Bitcoin Overvalued? Maybe Not

比特币被高估了吗？也许不是

Despite some analysts pointing to a flattening Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, suggesting a potential slowdown, institutions aren't sweating it. Strategy CEO Michael Saylor is predicting Bitcoin could reach as high as $21 million by 2046! Governments, like Texas, are even considering strategic Bitcoin reserves.

尽管一些分析师指出，实现价值（MVRV）比率的市场价值平坦，这表明潜在的放缓，但机构并没有流汗。战略首席执行官迈克尔·赛勒（Michael Saylor）预测，到2046年，比特币将达到2100万美元！像德克萨斯州一样，政府甚至正在考虑战略性比特币储备。

My Take: Cautiously Optimistic

我的看法：谨慎乐观

I'm cautiously optimistic. Hayes's insights, coupled with ETF inflows and positive regulatory moves, paint a promising picture. The market's resilience amid geopolitical tensions is also encouraging. However, it's crucial to remember that crypto is volatile. Don't bet the farm! Diversify, do your own research, and be prepared for potential pullbacks.

我谨慎乐观。海斯的见解，再加上ETF流入和积极的调节动作，描绘了有希望的图片。在地缘政治紧张局势的情况下，市场的韧性也令人鼓舞。但是，要记住加密货币是挥发性的，这一点至关重要。不要打赌农场！多样化，进行自己的研究，并为潜在的回调做好准备。

The historical data indicates the S&P 500 tends to hit a new ATH around 41 days before Bitcoin. So the overall global market sentiments are going to affect the price of Bitcoin.

历史数据表明，标准普尔500指数倾向于在比特币前41天左右袭击新的ATH。因此，全球总体市场情绪将影响比特币的价格。

The Bottom Line

底线

Bitcoin's momentum is undeniable. Whether it's Hayes's regulatory predictions, ETF inflows, or housing market integration, the pieces seem to be falling into place. Will Bitcoin reach new all-time highs? Only time will tell, but it sure feels like the party's just getting started. So buckle up, crypto enthusiasts, it could be a wild ride!

比特币的势头是不可否认的。无论是海斯的监管预测，ETF流入还是住房市场的整合，这些作品似乎都已浮出水。比特币会达到新的高点吗？只有时间会说明，但肯​​定会感觉就像派对刚刚开始。因此，加密爱好者搭扣，这可能是一次疯狂的旅程！