长期以来，比特币一直被视为潜在的避风港资产，这是一种现代的黄金替代品，可以在经济衰退期间保护投资者。

硬币避风港资产？比特币作为主要障碍的波动性

Bitcoin has long been touted as a potential safe-haven asset, a modern alternative to gold that could provide investors with a haven during economic downturns. However, as the cryptocurrency market matures, the question of whether Bitcoin possesses the properties of a safe-haven asset becomes more relevant.

长期以来，比特币一直被吹捧为潜在的避风势资产，这是黄金的现代替代品，可以在经济低迷期间为投资者提供避风港。但是，随着加密货币市场的成熟，比特币是否具有避风港资产的特性的问题变得更加相关。

While Bitcoin’s price has soared in recent years, its performance during periods of instability shows it may not provide the reliability investors traditionally expect from a true safe-haven asset.

尽管近年来比特币的价格飙升，但其不稳定时期的业绩表明，它可能无法提供投资者传统上从真正的避风港资产中期望的可靠性。

One major obstacle to Bitcoin’s status as a safe haven is its volatility. Unlike traditional assets like gold, which typically retain value during times of crisis, Bitcoin faces large price fluctuations.

比特币作为避风港地位的主要障碍是它的波动性。与通常在危机时期保留价值的传统资产不同，比特币的价值较大。

For instance, in 2025, gold surged to a record high of $3,500 per ounce as central banks and other high-net-worth investors accumulated it against the risks of a global trade war led by US President Donald Trump.

例如，在2025年，由于中央银行和其他高净值投资者累积了每盎司3,500美元的创纪录的高价，这是美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）领导的全球贸易战风险。

Meanwhile, Bitcoin dipped sharply during gold’s rise, highlighting its relative instability compared to gold, especially when weathering economic storms.

同时，比特币在黄金的上升期间急剧下降，与黄金相比，尤其是在风化经济风暴时，比特币强调了其相对不稳定。

Moreover, Bitcoin’s volatility makes it a less reliable hedge during market downturns. While gold has proven itself as a safe-haven asset during recessions and periods of inflation, often dropping in value when markets struggle, such behavior bodes poorly for its potential to act as a safe haven when investors are looking for stability.

此外，比特币的波动率使其在市场衰退期间的可靠树篱不那么可靠。尽管黄金在衰退和通货膨胀期间已证明自己是避风港的资产，但在市场挣扎时的价值通常会下降，但是当投资者寻求稳定时，这种行为的潜力很差。

However, while it may not function as a hedge, Bitcoin has proven valuable as a portfolio diversifier. Over the past five years, Bitcoin has outpaced traditional investments, offering annualized BTC price returns at an average of 200%.

但是，尽管它可能无法用作树篱，但比特币被证明是投资组合多样性的价值。在过去的五年中，比特币超过了传统投资，每年的BTC价格收益平均为200％。

This makes Bitcoin attractive for investors looking to enhance their portfolios with high-risk, high-reward assets.

这使比特币对希望通过高风险，高回报资产来增强投资组合的投资者有吸引力。

However, it's important to note that Bitcoin’s volatility also means it can magnify losses during market declines. Essentially, it may offer strong returns during periods of growth but does not protect investors when markets drop.

但是，重要的是要注意，比特币的波动性也意味着它可以在市场下降期间放大损失。从本质上讲，它可能在增长期间提供丰厚的回报，但在市场下降时不能保护投资者。

Therefore, it's better suited to complement traditional safe-haven assets rather than serve as a complete replacement.

因此，更适合补充传统的安全资产，而不是完全替代品。

In conclusion, Bitcoin’s role as a safe-haven asset remains a subject of debate. Its volatility and tendency to move with riskier assets make it an unreliable store of value.

总之，比特币作为避风港资产的作用仍然是辩论的主题。它的波动性和以较高的资产迁移的趋势使其成为价值存储不可靠。

That said, Bitcoin investors should be cautious about trusting it as a hedge, especially during geopolitical or economic turmoil triggered by unpredictable leadership, such as an erratic US president implementing abrupt trade policies or sanctions.

也就是说，比特币投资者应该谨慎地将其视为对冲，尤其是在不可预测的领导层引发的地缘政治或经济动荡期间，例如美国总统不稳定的实施突然的贸易政策或制裁。