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(Kitco News) – Digital asset investment products recorded their fourth consecutive week of outflows during the week ending May 3, with the collective assets under management (AUM) declining by $251 million to $84.86 billion.
(Kitco 新闻) – 截至 5 月 3 日当周,数字资产投资产品连续第四周出现资金流出,管理资产规模 (AUM) 减少 2.51 亿美元,至 848.6 亿美元。
It was also “the first week to see any measurable outflows from the newly issued ETFs in the U.S., which saw US$156m outflows last week,” said James Butterfill, Head of Research at CoinShares. “We estimate the average purchase price of these ETFs since launch to be US$62,200 per Bitcoin (BTC), as the price fell 10% below that level, it may have triggered automatic sell orders.”
CoinShares 研究主管詹姆斯·巴特菲尔 (James Butterfill) 表示,这也是“美国新发行 ETF 出现可衡量资金流出的第一周,上周资金流出 1.56 亿美元”。 “我们估计这些 ETF 自推出以来的平均购买价格为每比特币 (BTC) 62,200 美元,当价格跌至该水平以下 10% 时,可能会触发自动卖出订单。”
The outflows from the spot BTC ETFs mean that the U.S. accounted for the majority of the decline in AUM with $504 million in outflows, while Switzerland, Canada, and Germany saw drawdowns of $9.8 million, $9.6 million, and $7.3 million, respectively.
现货 BTC ETF 的资金流出意味着美国是 AUM 下降的主要原因,流出额为 5.04 亿美元,而瑞士、加拿大和德国的资金流出量分别为 980 万美元、960 万美元和 730 万美元。
“The bright spot last week was the successful launch of spot-based Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in Hong Kong, which saw US$307m inflows in the first week of trading,” Butterfill said.
Butterfill 表示:“上周的亮点是在香港成功推出了基于现货的比特币和以太坊 ETF,交易第一周就有 3.07 亿美元流入。”
In an unusual turn of events, Bitcoin was the only token to see outflows, with $284 million pulled from funds, while Ethereum (ETH) broke its seven-week streak of outflows to record inflows of $30 million.
在一个不同寻常的事件转变中,比特币是唯一出现资金流出的代币,资金从资金中撤出 2.84 亿美元,而以太坊 (ETH) 则打破了连续七周的资金流出记录,流入金额达 3000 万美元。
“A wide range of altcoins saw inflows, with the most significant being Avalanche, Cardano and Polkadot, seeing US$0.5m, US$0.4m and US$0.3m respectively,” Butterfill said.
Butterfill 表示:“多种山寨币都出现了资金流入,其中最重要的是 Avalanche、Cardano 和 Polkadot,分别流入了 50 万美元、40 万美元和 30 万美元。”
Exchange flows dwindle
外汇流量减少
Another set of flow data that crypto investors are watching is Bitcoin inflows into cryptocurrency exchanges, which recently hit the lowest point in nearly a decade, suggesting a bullish revival is on the horizon.
加密货币投资者正在关注的另一组流量数据是加密货币交易所的比特币流入量,该数据最近触及近十年来的最低点,表明看涨复苏即将到来。
The number of people wanting to sell BTC has been decreasing since February 2018. The MA-365D Exchange Inflow has dropped from 90K to 36K.
The current trend for Bitcoin Exchange Inflow is 20K BTC, a similar situation occurred in 2015.#deficit pic.twitter.com/YGNUOPBWqj自 2018 年 2 月以来,想要出售 BTC 的人数一直在减少。MA-365D 交易所流入量从 9 万下降到 3.6 万。目前比特币交易所流入的趋势是 20K BTC,2015 年也出现过类似情况。#deficit pic.twitter.com/YGNUOPBWqj
— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) May 6, 2024
- 阿克塞尔💎🙌小阿德勒 (@AxelAdlerJr) 2024 年 5 月 6 日
As shown in the graph provided by CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler, Bitcoin inflows into exchanges sit at 20,000 Bitcoin, the lowest value the market has seen since 2015.
正如 CryptoQuant 分析师 Axel Adler 提供的图表所示,流入交易所的比特币数量为 20,000 个比特币,这是自 2015 年以来市场的最低值。
At the same time, Adler noted that long-term hodlers have also stopped distributing their tokens and started reaccumulating, which has historically been bullish.
与此同时,阿德勒指出,长期持有者也停止分发代币并开始重新积累,这在历史上一直是看涨的。
Experienced investors Long-Term Holders (LTH) at the 70K level have finished distributing coins to new investors.
This week the oscillator will turn blue 🔵, indicating the cohort's transition to the active accumulation phase. pic.twitter.com/H7NYStSAZC70K 水平的经验丰富的长期持有者(LTH)已完成向新投资者分配代币。本周振荡器将变为蓝色🔵,表明该群体过渡到积极积累阶段。 pic.twitter.com/H7NYStSAZC
— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) May 6, 2024
- 阿克塞尔💎🙌小阿德勒 (@AxelAdlerJr) 2024 年 5 月 6 日
Data provided by Alternative shows that the overall sentiment in the crypto market remains in “Greed” territory, which some analysts say means that further weakness is needed to ensure that the excess froth is cleared from the market.
Alternative 提供的数据显示,加密货币市场的整体情绪仍处于“贪婪”领域,一些分析师表示,这意味着需要进一步走软才能确保从市场中清除多余的泡沫。
But according to analyst Kripto Mevsimi, that could soon change as “We are approaching the 'grey line' [in the chart below], which serves as the optimism/pessimism threshold for the crypto market.”
但根据分析师 Kripto Mevsimi 的说法,这种情况可能很快就会改变,因为“我们正在接近‘灰线’(如下图所示),它是加密货币市场的乐观/悲观阈值。”
“The blue line, representing the proportion of Bitcoin supply currently in profit, is notably high,” Mevsimi said. “This generally indicates that a significant portion of the market might be considering realizing gains, potentially leading to increased selling pressure. Historically, such elevated levels have often preceded market volatility and potential downturns as holders begin to liquidate their positions.”
Mevsimi 表示:“蓝线代表目前比特币供应量在利润中所占的比例,该比例非常高。” “这通常表明市场的很大一部分可能正在考虑实现收益,从而可能导致抛售压力增加。从历史上看,这种高水平往往先于市场波动和潜在的低迷,因为持有者开始清算其头寸。”
As the metric gets closer to the grey line, “Market participants should be vigilant; crossing below this line could lead to a deeper correction in prices,” he warned. “However, if we remain above this line, market sentiment is likely to stay positive, and any correction could be short-lived.”
随着该指标接近灰线,“市场参与者应该保持警惕;跌破这条线可能会导致价格进一步调整,”他警告说。 “然而,如果我们保持在这条线之上,市场情绪可能会保持积极,任何调整都可能是短暂的。”
“Profitability is a crucial factor in market psychology, especially when macroeconomic conditions, such as the current non-supportive economic expansionary monetary policies, do not favor risk assets,” Mevsimi concluded. “Participants should carefully monitor these dynamics as they can significantly influence market movements.”
梅夫西米总结道:“盈利能力是市场心理的关键因素,尤其是当宏观经济状况(例如当前非支持性经济扩张性货币政策)不利于风险资产时。” “参与者应仔细监控这些动态,因为它们可以显着影响市场走势。”
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