比特币市场暴跌：分析师预测进一步下跌 30-40%

比特币近期价格大幅下跌引发了广泛的市场清算，香港和美国的主要现货 ETF 表现不佳，反映出市场的困境。分析师预计，当前周期的价格可能出现 30-40% 的大幅调整，与之前的市场周期保持一致，并凸显了投资者的担忧。

Bitcoin's Steep Market Correction Unravels: Analysts Predict Further Drops of 30-40%

比特币大幅市场调整揭晓：分析师预测进一步下跌 30-40%

Amidst unrelenting market pressures, Bitcoin [BTC] has plummeted below the $58,000 threshold, triggering a wave of concern among investors and prompting analysts to forecast a substantial price correction of 30-40% within the ongoing market cycle. This tumultuous descent has raised the specter of a significant market adjustment, potentially reverting Bitcoin's value to levels witnessed during previous bullish cycles.

在持续不断的市场压力下，比特币 [BTC] 已跌破 58,000 美元大关，引发投资者一波担忧，促使分析师预测当前市场周期内价格将大幅调整 30-40%。这种剧烈的下跌引发了市场重大调整的担忧，有可能使比特币的价值恢复到之前牛市周期的水平。

Bitcoin's Precarious Position Near $55,000

比特币接近 55,000 美元的不稳定位置

Bitcoin's recent market performance has painted a grim picture, characterized by a 10% decline over the past week, bringing its trading price dangerously close to $55,000. Seasoned analyst Scott Melker has identified critical support levels that have now reversed to resistance points, hinting at the possibility of further declines.

比特币近期的市场表现描绘出一幅严峻的景象，过去一周下跌了 10%，使其交易价格危险地接近 55,000 美元。经验丰富的分析师斯科特·梅尔克（Scott Melker）已经确定了关键支撑位，该支撑位现已反转为阻力点，暗示有进一步下跌的可能性。

"Nothing but air until around $52,000 on the chart," Melker cautioned.

“图表上只有空气，直到 52,000 美元左右，”梅尔克警告说。

This suggests that Bitcoin faces a potential free-fall if it fails to hold onto current support levels.

这表明，如果比特币未能守住当前的支撑位，它可能会面临自由落体的风险。

Technical Indicators Paint a Bleak Outlook

技术指标描绘了黯淡的前景

Technical analysis provides an equally bleak outlook. Melker noted that the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a widely used indicator that gauges whether an asset is overbought or oversold, has not yet signaled oversold territory.

技术分析提供了同样黯淡的前景。梅尔克指出，相对强弱指数（RSI）是一种广泛使用的衡量资产是否超买或超卖的指标，但尚未发出超卖区域的信号。

This divergence suggests that buying interest remains subdued, supporting the notion of further price drops. The broader price trend on the charts reflects a pattern of declining highs and lows, indicating persistent bearish momentum.

这种差异表明购买兴趣仍然低迷，支持了价格进一步下跌的想法。图表上更广泛的价格趋势反映了高点和低点不断下降的模式，表明持续的看跌势头。

Melker emphasized that the current downturn represents only a fraction of what is to come, stating:

梅尔克强调，当前的经济低迷仅代表未来的一小部分，他表示：

"This is still ONLY A 23% correction, very shallow for a bull market and consistent with other corrections on this run. We are yet to see a 30-40% pull back during this bull market, like those of the past."

“这仍然只是 23% 的回调，对于牛市来说非常浅，并且与本轮的其他回调一致。我们尚未看到像过去那样在本次牛市中出现 30-40% 的回调。”

Broader Market Implications

更广泛的市场影响

Beyond immediate price action, broader market indicators reveal underlying challenges. Santiment, a blockchain analytics firm, reports a significant drop in Bitcoin's daily active addresses, signaling declining user activity and interest. The drop is visible in the Social Dominance metric, which has declined by 20%.

除了立即的价格走势之外，更广泛的市场指标也揭示了潜在的挑战。区块链分析公司 Santiment 报告称，比特币的每日活跃地址大幅下降，表明用户活动和兴趣下降。社交支配力指标的下降非常明显，下降了 20%。

Widespread Liquidations and Underwhelming Spot ETF Debuts

广泛清算和现货 ETF 首次亮相表现平平

The downturn in Bitcoin's value has triggered widespread liquidations, affecting a large number of traders. According to Coinglass, approximately 60,795 traders have been liquidated in the last 24 hours alone, with total liquidations amounting to $205.12 million.

比特币价值的下跌引发了大范围的清算，影响了大量交易者。 Coinglass 的数据显示，仅过去 24 小时就有约 60,795 名交易者被清算，清算总额达 2.0512 亿美元。

The underwhelming debut of recently listed spot ETFs in Hong Kong has exacerbated the situation. These ETFs garnered a mere $11 million in trading volume on their first day, a stark contrast to the much higher figures achieved by their U.S. counterparts at their launch in January.

最近在香港上市的现货 ETF 的首次亮相表现平平，加剧了这种情况。这些 ETF 第一天的交易量仅为 1100 万美元，与 1 月份推出时美国同行的交易量要高得多，形成鲜明对比。

Furthermore, U.S. spot ETFs have faced significant outflows, with $161 million withdrawn on Tuesday alone, marking the fifth consecutive day of outflows, as reported by AMBCrypto using data from SoSo Value.

此外，据 AMBCrypto 使用 SoSo Value 的数据报道，美国现货 ETF 面临大幅资金流出，仅周二就撤资 1.61 亿美元，这是连续第五天出现资金流出。

Anticipation of Interest Rate Increase Adds Pressure

加息预期增加压力

Traders have also been withdrawing from riskier investments in anticipation of the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates at the upcoming FOMC meeting. Market expectations of higher-than-anticipated inflation have prompted the Fed to maintain steady rates, further pressuring the already strained cryptocurrency market.

由于预期美联储将在即将举行的联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 会议上做出利率决定，交易员也纷纷撤出风险较高的投资。市场对通胀高于预期的预期促使美联储维持稳定利率，进一步给本已紧张的加密货币市场带来压力。