比特币即将到来的顶峰：衰变与权力、交易者冲突

Peter Brandt 的“指数衰减”理论表明，比特币当前的牛市可能已经达到 70,000 美元的顶峰，进一步上涨的可能性只有 25%。然而，乔瓦尼·桑托斯塔西 (Giovanni Santostasi) 的“幂律”行为等替代模型预测，到 2025 年 12 月，价格峰值将高得多，达到 210,000 美元，而其他分析师则预计潜在的周期峰值范围为 120,000 美元至 180,000 美元。

Bitcoin's Potential Peak: Exponential Decay Theory vs. Power Law Model

比特币的潜在峰值：指数衰减理论与幂律模型

Amid the ongoing Bitcoin bull run, the question of its potential peak has sparked considerable debate within the cryptocurrency community. Veteran trader Peter Brandt has proposed an "exponential decay" pattern, suggesting that Bitcoin may have already reached its zenith in this cycle. However, alternative price models, such as the power law model, posit that the peak may still be significantly higher.

在持续的比特币牛市中，其潜在峰值的问题在加密货币社区内引发了相当大的争论。资深交易员彼得·勃兰特提出了“指数衰减”模式，表明比特币可能已经在这个周期中达到了顶峰。然而，替代价格模型（例如幂律模型）认为峰值可能仍然要高得多。

Exponential Decay Theory: Peak Reached at $70,000?

指数衰减理论：峰值达到 70,000 美元？

Peter Brandt's exponential decay theory postulates that the peak price of each successive Bitcoin bull market cycle exhibits a 20% decline compared to the previous cycle's peak. Historical data supports this pattern in the last three Bitcoin market cycles.

Peter Brandt 的指数衰减理论假设，每个连续的比特币牛市周期的峰值价格与上一个周期的峰值相比都会下降 20%。过去三个比特币市场周期的历史数据支持了这种模式。

Based on this decay rate, Brandt estimates that the current cycle will witness a 4.5x gain from its low of around $15,500, resulting in a potential cycle top of approximately $70,000. Notably, Bitcoin has already surpassed this level, reaching a high of over $73,000 in March.

根据这一衰减率，Brandt 估计当前周期将比 15,500 美元左右的低点上涨 4.5 倍，从而导致潜在的周期顶部约为 70,000 美元。值得注意的是，比特币已经突破了这一水平，在 3 月份达到了超过 73,000 美元的高位。

However, Brandt himself acknowledges the limited probability of this theory, assigning a 25% chance that Bitcoin has already peaked in this cycle.

然而，布兰特本人也承认这一理论的可能性有限，认为比特币在本周期中已经见顶的可能性为 25%。

Rebuttal by the Power Law Model: Peak Projected at $210,000

幂律模型的反驳：峰值预计为 210,000 美元

Giovanni Santostasi, CEO and Director of Research at Quantonomy, challenges Brandt's exponential decay theory with his own model based on long-term power law behavior. He highlights the insufficiency of data points to draw statistically significant conclusions from Brandt's theory.

Quantonomy 首席执行官兼研究总监 Giovanni Santostasi 用他自己的基于长期幂律行为的模型挑战了 Brandt 的指数衰减理论。他强调了数据点的不足，无法从勃兰特的理论中得出具有统计意义的结论。

Santostasi employs a power law relationship, where one quantity (BTC price) varies as a power of another quantity (time). Extrapolating from the genesis block, his price model predicts a fourth cycle peak of around $210,000 in December 2025.

Santostasi 采用幂律关系，其中一个数量（BTC 价格）随着另一个数量（时间）的幂而变化。从创世区块推断，他的价格模型预测 2025 年 12 月将出现第四个周期峰值，约为 210,000 美元。

Other Price Predictions and Market Sentiment

其他价格预测和市场情绪

Numerous other analysts and traders have offered their predictions for Bitcoin's peak in this cycle. Pav Hundal of Swyftx estimates a price target of $120,000 by the next halving in 2028. Laurent Benayoun of Acheron Trading forecasts a potential peak of $180,000.

许多其他分析师和交易员也对比特币在本周期达到顶峰做出了预测。 Swyftx 的 Pav Hundal 估计，到 2028 年下一次减半时，价格目标为 120,000 美元。Acheron Trading 的 Laurent Benayoun 预测潜在峰值为 180,000 美元。

While these predictions vary, they generally suggest that Bitcoin still has room for growth before reaching its peak. However, it is important to note that market sentiment can fluctuate rapidly, and unexpected events can influence price movements.

尽管这些预测各不相同，但它们普遍表明比特币在达到顶峰之前仍有增长空间。然而，值得注意的是，市场情绪可能会迅速波动，意外事件可能会影响价格走势。

Current Market Status

目前市场状况

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $62,528, a 15% decline from its all-time high in mid-March. Despite this pullback, the market sentiment remains largely bullish, with many analysts anticipating further appreciation in the long term.

截至撰写本文时，比特币交易价格为 62,528 美元，较 3 月中旬的历史高点下跌 15%。尽管出现这种回调，但市场情绪仍然基本看涨，许多分析师预计长期来看将进一步升值。