比特币的本地底部：玻璃节在前方的道路上的见解

比特币接近本地底部吗？ GlassNode的数据和链分析提供了对当前市场趋势和潜在价格变动的关键见解。

The Bitcoin market is a rollercoaster, and everyone's trying to figure out when the next dip will end. Glassnode's on-chain analysis offers some clues. Let's dive into what they're saying about Bitcoin and finding that elusive local bottom.

比特币市场是过山车，每个人都试图弄清楚下一个下一次浸入何时结束。 GlassNode的链链分析提供了一些线索。让我们深入了解他们对比特币的评价，并找到难以捉摸的本地底层。

Post-ATH Contraction: Where Are We Now?

后收缩：我们现在在哪里？

According to Glassnode, Bitcoin is currently in a post-ATH (All-Time High) contraction phase. This means we're seeing the aftermath of a significant peak, with the market trying to find its footing. A key factor in this phase is how short-term holders react to unrealized losses. Are they panic-selling, or are they holding strong?

根据GlassNode的说法，比特币目前处于后（历史高）收缩阶段。这意味着我们看到了一个重大峰值的后果，市场试图找到其基础。在此阶段的关键因素是短期持有人如何对未实现的损失做出反应。他们是惊慌失措还是坚强？

The $113K-$120K Accumulation Cluster

$ 113K- $ 120K累积集群

Glassnode has identified a dense cluster of Bitcoin accumulation between $113,000 and $120,000 since early July. This range is crucial because it represents a concentration of buyers who entered the market during that price window. If prices dip further, this zone could act as a critical resistance area. Holder behavior in this range will likely determine near-term price direction.

自7月初以来，GlassNode已确定了一块浓密的比特币积累群。这个范围至关重要，因为它代表了在这个价格窗口中进入市场的购买者的集中。如果价格进一步降低，则该区域可以充当关键的阻力区域。在此范围内的持有人行为可能会决定近期价格方向。

SOPR: Are We There Yet?

SOPR：我们在那里吗？

The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) is another metric Glassnode uses to gauge the likelihood of a local bottom. Currently, the 3-month SOPR is around 0.96-1.01, indicating mild loss-taking but still far from deep capitulation. Historically, a SOPR below 0.9 often signals conclusive selling waves, paving the way for a price bottom. We're not quite there yet, folks.

用过的产出利润率（SOPR）是另一个用于衡量本地底部可能性的公制玻璃节。目前，3个月的SOPR约为0.96-1.01，表明轻度损失，但远离深度投降。从历史上看，低于0.9的SOPR通常会发出结论性的销售波，为价格最低点铺平了道路。伙计们，我们还不到那儿。

Accumulation Trend Score: A Sharp Reversal

累积趋势得分：急剧逆转

Interestingly, recent data shows a reversal in accumulation trends. Large holders (over 10,000 BTC) to small wallets (less than 1 BTC) appear to be in distribution, marking a shift from accumulation just a week prior when Bitcoin hit new all-time highs above $124,000. This suggests profit-taking is underway, which is common after record highs. The aggregate Accumulation Trend Score has been below 0.5 for several days, confirming this.

有趣的是，最近的数据显示了积累趋势的逆转。大型持有人（超过10,000 BTC）到小钱包（少于1 BTC）似乎正在分销，这标志着一周前比特币在$ 124,000以上的新历史高点时的累积转变。这表明利润正在进行中，这是在创纪录的高点之后常见的。几天的总积累趋势评分一直低于0.5，这证实了这一点。

A Word of Caution: August's Track Record

注意：八月的往绩记录

It's worth noting that August has historically been a tricky month for Bitcoin. The last three Augusts each saw corrections in the double-digit percentage range. So, while we're all eager to see a local bottom, history suggests we might need to brace ourselves for some volatility.

值得注意的是，八月在历史上对于比特币来说是一个棘手的月份。最后三个8月分别看到了两位数百分比范围的校正。因此，虽然我们都渴望看到当地的底部，但历史表明我们可能需要为自己的波动做好准备。

The Bigger Picture

更大的图片

While on-chain analysis provides valuable insights, it's essential to remember that the crypto market is influenced by various factors. Social engineering scams, like the recent $91.4 million Bitcoin theft, highlight the need for robust security measures and user education. These events can impact market sentiment and price movements.

虽然链分析提供了宝贵的见解，但必须记住，加密货币市场受到各种因素的影响。社会工程骗局，例如最近的9140万美元比特币盗窃，强调了对强大的安全措施和用户教育的需求。这些事件会影响市场的情绪和价格变动。

Final Thoughts

最后的想法

So, is Bitcoin near a local bottom? Glassnode's data suggests we're still in the bottom formation phase, with key levels and metrics to watch. Remember, the crypto market is never boring! Stay informed, stay cautious, and who knows, maybe we'll all be celebrating a new bull run soon. Keep your eyes peeled and your wits about you, and happy trading, y'all!

那么，比特币在当地底部附近吗？ GlassNode的数据表明我们仍处于底层阶段，关键水平和指标值得关注。请记住，加密市场永远不会无聊！保持告密性，保持谨慎，谁知道，也许我们都会很快庆祝新的公牛。让您的眼睛剥皮，对您的智慧，并愉快地进行交易！