比特币的$ 105K支持测试：在下一次加密风暴之前冷静？

比特币令人放松，但风暴正在酿造。它会以105,000美元的价格持有，还是我们会更深入地潜水？让我们分解数据在说什么。

Bitcoin's $105K Support Test: Calm Before the Next Crypto Storm?

比特币的$ 105K支持测试：在下一次加密风暴之前冷静？

Bitcoin's been eerily quiet lately, like that awkward silence before the beat drops at a rave. All eyes are on whether it can hold its ground around $105K. Is this just a breather before the next leg up, or are we about to see a serious dip? Let's dive into the signals.

最近，比特币一直很安静，就像在狂欢狂欢之前那种尴尬的寂静一样。所有人的目光都在于它是否可以在105,000美元左右举行地面。这只是下一条腿之前的呼吸，还是我们要看到严重的蘸酱？让我们潜入信号。

Declining Exchange Inflows: Holders Are HODLing

交换流入下降：持有人在骗人

One interesting trend is the declining Bitcoin exchange inflows. CryptoQuant data suggests fewer folks are moving their Bitcoin onto exchanges. What does this mean? Well, it could signal that holders are getting serious conviction and plan to keep their assets off the market. Less Bitcoin readily available for sale can reduce immediate selling pressure.

一个有趣的趋势是比特币交换的下降。加密数据表明，更少的人将他们的比特币移至交易所。这是什么意思？好吧，这可能表明持有人正在认真信念，并计划将其资产远离市场。较少的比特币容易出售可以减轻立即销售压力。

The Calm Before the… What Exactly?

……到底是什么？

CryptoQuant analysts are calling this "one of the quietest phases in years." They're seeing exchange supply drying up, investors sitting tight, and derivatives markets remaining surprisingly calm. Implied volatility has even dropped to levels not seen since 2023 – a period that preceded a massive 325% Bitcoin rally. Could history repeat itself?

加密分析师称这是“多年来最安静的阶段之一”。他们看到交换供应正在枯竭，投资者紧张，衍生品市场仍然令人惊讶地镇定。自2023年以来，隐含的波动率甚至已经下降到从未见过的水平，这一时期是大规模的325％比特币集会。历史可以重演吗？

The $105K Line in the Sand

沙滩上的$ 105K线

Now, here's where things get interesting. Glassnode points out that Bitcoin has slipped below the 0.95 Cost Basis Quantile, a key risk band. If Bitcoin can reclaim this level, it would signal renewed strength. But, and this is a big but, failure to do so risks a drift toward lower supports around $105,000–$90,000. That $105K level is looking pretty important right now.

现在，这是事情变得有趣的地方。 GlassNode指出，比特币已滑到0.95的成本基础分位数，这是一个关键风险带。如果比特币可以收回此水平，它将标志着更新的强度。但是，这是一个很大的，但是如果不这样做会冒着向较低的支撑倾向的风险，约为105,000美元至90,000美元。目前，$ 105K的水平看起来很重要。

Tom Lee's Bold Prediction: $250K by Year-End?

汤姆·李（Tom Lee）的大胆预测：年底$ 250k？

Zooming out a bit, let's not forget Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, who's making headlines with a seriously bullish prediction: Bitcoin could reach as high as $250,000 by year-end 2025. He's basing this on macro tailwinds and growing institutional interest. While it's always wise to take such predictions with a grain of salt, it highlights the potential upside if the market conditions align.

放大了一点，不要忘记Fundstrat的汤姆·李（Tom Lee），他以严重看涨的预测成为头条新闻：到2025年底，比特币可以达到高达25万美元。他将此基于宏观的尾声和日益增长的机构利益。虽然始终明智的做法是用一粒盐进行此类预测，但如果市场条件保持一致，它突出了潜在的上行空间。

Aave's Story: $265 as a Meaningful Defense

Aave的故事：265美元作为有意义的辩护

In earlier analysis, $289–292 support zone was highlighted as the pivot for AAVE to sustain upside momentum. The current breakdown below this cluster validates its importance, with price now relying on $265 as the last meaningful defense before revisiting June bases.

在较早的分析中，$ 289-292的支持区被强调为aave维持上升势头的枢纽。当前的崩溃低于此集群，验证了其重要性，而价格现在依靠265美元作为重新审视六月基地之前的最后有意义的防御。

What's the Takeaway?

收获是什么？

Bitcoin's at a critical juncture. The market's quiet, but that usually doesn't last. Keep a close eye on that $105K level. A break below could signal further downside, while holding strong could pave the way for another rally. As always, do your own research and don't invest more than you can afford to lose.

比特币处于关键时刻。市场很安静，但这通常不会持续。密切关注105,000美元的水平。下面的休息可能会进一步信号，同时保持强大可以为另一场集会铺平道路。与往常一样，进行自己的研究，不要投资超出您负担得起的损失。

So, buckle up, crypto enthusiasts! It looks like things are about to get interesting. Whether we're heading for a moonshot or a faceplant, one thing's for sure: it won't be boring!

因此，搭扣，加密爱好者！看起来事情将变得有趣。无论我们要去月球旋转还是面包板，都可以肯定的是：这不会很无聊！