比特币至$ 200k？亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）说，旧规则不适用

亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）预测比特币将达到200万美元，抛弃了四年周期的叙述。宏观变化和流动性将推动下一个激增。山寨币要当心！

Hold onto your hats, crypto fans! Arthur Hayes is shaking things up, predicting Bitcoin to hit $200,000. But he's not just throwing out numbers; he's saying the traditional four-year cycle is dead.

抓住帽子，加密粉丝！亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）正在摇动一切，预测比特币将达到20万美元。但是他不只是扔掉数字。他说传统的四年周期已经死了。

Hayes Dumps the Four-Year Cycle

海耶斯倾倒了四年周期

For years, Bitcoin's price has danced to the tune of its halving events, creating a predictable pattern of booms and busts. But Hayes? He's not buying it. He argues that global liquidity and changing investor behavior are the real drivers now. Forget the mining milestones; it's all about monetary policy, especially what the Fed does with interest rates.

多年来，比特币的价格一直在其减半事件的曲调，创造了可预测的繁荣和胸围模式。但是海耶斯？他没有买。他认为，全球流动性和不断变化的投资者行为现在是真正的驱动力。忘记采矿里程碑；这全都与货币政策有关，尤其是美联储通过利率所做的事情。

Bitcoin's Path to $200,000: It's All About Liquidity

比特币达到200,000美元的道路：这一切都与流动性有关

Hayes is convinced Bitcoin will smash past $200,000, viewing the current $60,000–$65,000 range as a brief pit stop before the next massive leap. What makes Bitcoin special? Its resilience under regulatory pressure and its status as the only truly decentralized money. Liquidity, not halving charts, will fuel its rise to six figures.

海斯坚信比特币将超过20万美元，将目前的$ 60,000-65,000范围视为下一次大型飞跃之前的短暂进站。是什么使比特币特别？它在监管压力下的韧性及其地位是唯一真正分散的资金。流动性而不是减半图表，将其上升到六位数。

Altcoins: Handle with Extreme Care

AltCoins：非常关心

While Hayes is super bullish on Bitcoin, he's waving a big red flag at altcoins. He sees them as fragile, ready to crumble the moment liquidity dries up. Remember those 50%-100% gains earlier this year? Hayes points out how quickly they crashed when the money got tight. For him, altcoins are “running on narrative,” lacking the solid foundation for long-term survival.

当海斯对比特币上的超级看好，但他在altcoins挥舞着大危险。他认为它们是脆弱的，随时准备崩溃流动性干燥的那一刻。还记得今年早些时候的50％-100％收益吗？海耶斯指出，当钱紧张时，他们撞车的速度有多快。对他来说，Altcoins“依靠叙事”，缺乏长期生存的坚实基础。

Why This Time Is Different: Stablecoins as Trojan Horse

为什么这次是不同的：稳定的人为特洛伊木马

Hayes sees bigger forces at play, like the growing importance of stablecoins and central banks shifting their policies. He even suggests that stablecoins are a “Trojan horse” that can pull trillions of dollars into U.S. Treasury markets, bypassing traditional banking constraints.

海耶斯（Hayes）看到更大的力量在起作用，例如稳定币和中央银行转移其政策的重要性。他甚至建议，稳定币是一匹“特洛伊木马”，可以将数万亿美元纳入美国财政市场，绕过传统的银行业务限制。

He believes Treasury Secretary Bessant and Trump’s team see stablecoins as a geopolitical tool. By embedding U.S. dollar-backed tokens into apps like WhatsApp and X, Washington can funnel dollar demand from the Global South directly into Treasury bills.

他认为财政部长贝辛特（Bessant）和特朗普（Trump）的团队将斯塔布莱辛（Stablecoins）视为地缘政治工具。通过将美元支持的代币嵌入到WhatsApp和X等应用中，华盛顿可以将全球南方的美元需求直接汇入国库账单。

Hayes's Long-Term Vision: $700,000 Bitcoin

海斯的长期愿景：$ 700,000比特币

Hayes's long-term target for Bitcoin is $700,000 per coin if liquidity flows unfold as he expects.

如果流动性流动如他所期望的，海耶斯对比特币的长期目标是每枚硬币700,000美元。

Capital B's Bold Move: Stacking Sats Like a Boss

Capital B的大胆举动：像老板一样堆叠坐着

Speaking of conviction, check out Capital B, a European company that's all-in on Bitcoin. They just snagged another 48 BTC for a cool €4.7 million, bringing their total stash to 2,249 BTC. Their secret? Raising capital through strategic partnerships and plowing it straight into Bitcoin. These guys aren't just dabbling; they're building a treasury around Bitcoin.

说到定罪，请查看一家全面使用比特币的欧洲公司Capital B。他们刚刚以470万欧元的价格抓住了48 BTC，使他们的总储藏量达到2,249 BTC。他们的秘密？通过战略合作伙伴关系筹集资金，并将其直接耕作到比特币中。这些家伙不仅涉足；他们正在比特币周围建造财政部。

The Bottom Line: Buckle Up!

底线：扣紧！

So, what's the takeaway? According to Hayes, the crypto market isn't moving on a predictable schedule anymore. Bitcoin is gearing up for a major breakout, potentially hitting $200,000 and beyond. But altcoins? They might not be so lucky. As Hayes puts it, Bitcoin is the only asset strong enough to weather the storm, while most altcoins could fade into obscurity.

那么，收获是什么？根据海斯的说法，加密市场不再按照可预测的时间表进行。比特币正在为重大突破准备，可能会达到200,000美元及以后。但是Altcoins？他们可能不是那么幸运。正如海斯（Hayes）所说，比特币是唯一足够强大的资产来环保风暴，而大多数山寨币可能会逐渐消失。

In the wild world of crypto, where fortunes are made and lost in the blink of an eye, Hayes's predictions are a reminder that the game is always changing. So, keep your eyes on the charts, your ears to the ground, and maybe, just maybe, start stacking those sats!

在加密世界的狂野世界中，眨眼间造成并损失了命运，海耶斯的预测提醒人们，游戏总是在变化。因此，将目光投向图表，耳朵靠在地面上，也许，也许，开始堆叠那些SATS！