比特币：一项指标表明 2025 年开局将不稳定

我发现了一个历史上可以揭示比特币未来表现的指标。在这篇文章中，我将解释它在过去是如何工作的（以及它工作得不太好的情况），以及为什么它可能表明存在困难。

This article discusses a technical indicator that may hint at a rocky start to 2025 for Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC-USD). The indicator in question is the Bollinger Bands Percentage, which measures the distance between an asset's price and the upper or lower Bollinger Band, expressed as a percentage.

本文讨论了一项技术指标，该指标可能暗示比特币（加密货币：BTC-USD）到 2025 年将面临艰难开局。所讨论的指标是布林线百分比，它衡量资产价格与布林线上限或下限之间的距离，以百分比表示。

According to the author, when this indicator spikes to extremely high levels, it can often indicate a potential reversal in the asset's price trend. For instance, if the indicator surges to 95% or higher, it might suggest that an asset is nearing a top and could be poised for a downturn.

作者认为，当该指标飙升至极高水平时，通常可以表明资产价格趋势可能出现逆转。例如，如果该指标飙升至 95% 或更高，则可能表明某项资产已接近顶部，并可能会陷入低迷。

The author points out that this indicator has played out in Bitcoin's past price movements. In 2017, as BTC soared to all-time highs, the Bollinger Bands Percentage indicator reached 98% in December of that year, just before Bitcoin's price began to plummet.

作者指出，这一指标已经在比特币过去的价格走势中发挥了作用。 2017年，随着比特币飙升至历史新高，布林带百分比指标在当年12月达到了98%，就在比特币价格开始暴跌之前。

Similarly, in 2021, the indicator again hit 98% in March, coinciding with another peak in Bitcoin's price trend before a subsequent downturn.

同样，在 2021 年，该指标在 3 月份再次达到 98%，恰逢比特币价格趋势在随后的低迷之前达到另一个峰值。

However, the author also notes that this indicator isn't foolproof and there have been instances where it didn't accurately predict a price reversal.

然而，作者还指出，该指标并非万无一失，并且在某些情况下它无法准确预测价格反转。

For example, in 2019, the indicator reached 97% in June, but Bitcoin's price continued rising for several more months.

例如，2019年6月该指标达到97%，但比特币价格又持续上涨了几个月。

Ultimately, the author suggests that this indicator might be hinting at a rocky start to 2025 for Bitcoin, considering that the indicator is currently sitting at 94%. This could potentially indicate that BTC is nearing a top and might be setting up for a downturn early next year.

最后，作者认为，考虑到该指标目前为 94%，该指标可能暗示比特币到 2025 年将面临艰难开局。这可能表明比特币已接近顶峰，并可能在明年初陷入低迷。