比特币的流动性挤压：稀缺性如何影响价格

比特币的流动性供应量很高，有可能引发供应冲击。长期持有人和民族国家采用的价格会飞涨吗？

Bitcoin's Illiquidity Squeeze: How Scarcity Impacts Price

比特币的流动性挤压：稀缺性如何影响价格

Bitcoin's illiquid supply is surging, hinting at a potential supply shock. Long-term holders and possible nation-state adoption could dramatically influence Bitcoin's price dynamics.

比特币的流动性供应急剧激增，暗示了潜在的供应冲击。长期持有人和可能的民族国家采用可能会极大地影响比特币的价格动态。

Bitcoin's Illiquid Supply: A Bullish Signal?

比特币的流动性供应：看涨信号？

Data shows that Bitcoin's illiquid supply has reached a new peak, with over 72% of the circulating supply (14.3 million BTC) held by long-term holders (LTHs) who haven't moved their coins in over seven years. This steadfast conviction reduces selling pressure and could trigger a supply shock if demand outpaces supply.

数据表明，比特币的流动供应已经达到了一个新的高峰，长期持有人（LTHS）持有的循环供应量超过72％（1,430万BTC），他们在七年多以上没有移动硬币。这种坚定的定罪会降低销售压力，如果需求超过供应，可能会引发供应冲击。

Fidelity's Forecast: Scarcity Takes Center Stage

富达的预测：稀缺是中心舞台

Asset manager Fidelity predicts Bitcoin's scarcity will become a focal point as more entities adopt a long-term holding strategy. They highlight two key groups contributing to illiquid supply: coins unmoved for seven+ years and public companies holding at least 1,000 BTC. Michael Saylor's Strategy, owning over 3% of Bitcoin's total supply, exemplifies the latter. Fidelity anticipates these groups holding over 28% of Bitcoin by 2025.

资产经理Fidelity预测，随着越来越多的实体采用长期持有策略，比特币的稀缺将成为一个焦点。他们强调了两个关键团体，这些团体为供应不足的供应：硬币不动七年以上，而持有至少1,000 BTC的上市公司。迈克尔·塞勒（Michael Saylor）的策略占比特币总供应量的3％以上，体现了后者。 Fidelity预计到2025年，这些群体持有超过28％的比特币。

The Double-Edged Sword of Illiquidity

双刃剑的流动性

While increasing illiquidity generally supports price appreciation, Fidelity cautions about potential shifts. Significant price gains could incentivize LTHs and public companies to realize profits, transferring large Bitcoin amounts back into liquid supply. The sale of 80,000 'ancient' BTC in July 2025 was cited as a possible early sign of capitulation.

虽然流动性增加通常支持价格升值，但富达警告说潜在的转变。大幅上涨的价格可以激励LTHS和上市公司实现利润，将大量比特币纳入液体供应中。 2025年7月出售80,000个“古代” BTC是可能的早期屈服迹象。

Market Dynamics and Potential Price Swings

市场动态和潜在价格波动

Recent market analysis indicates Bitcoin is testing key support levels. While technical indicators show mixed signals, the potential for both bullish and bearish scenarios exists. A break below critical support could lead to a significant price drop, while a strong upside correction could trigger a rally.

最近的市场分析表明，比特币正在测试关键支持水平。尽管技术指标显示出不同的信号，但存在看涨和看跌场景的潜力。低于关键支持的休息可能会导致价格下降，而强大的上行校正可能会触发集会。

Personal Take: Riding the Bitcoin Wave

个人拍摄：骑比特币浪潮

It's a wild ride, ain't it? All this talk about illiquidity and supply shocks makes you wonder if Bitcoin's gonna shoot for the moon. But hey, remember that crypto is crypto. What goes up can come down, and what's illiquid today might flood the market tomorrow. So, buckle up, do your research, and maybe stash away some extra popcorn for the show.

这是一次疯狂的旅程，不是吗？所有关于流动性和供应冲击的讨论使您想知道比特币是否会为月球射击。但是，嘿，请记住加密货币是加密货币。上升的可能会下降，今天的流动性不足可能会淹没明天的市场。因此，系好工作，进行研究，也许将一些额外的爆米花藏在节目中。

Disclaimer: I'm just a blog writer, not a financial advisor. This ain't investment advice, so don't go betting your life savings based on what I say.

免责声明：我只是博客作家，而不是财务顾问。这不是投资建议，所以不要根据我说的话下注生命。