强劲的一年过后，比特币徘徊在 7 万美元以上；五个因素可能导致价格上涨

Bitcoin has fallen 0.2% over the past 24 hours to $70,504 and remained below yesterday’s high of $72,694 in early trading Tuesday. The world’s largest crypto asset has had a good few days, rising from around $66,000 Friday, and an even better year—it’s up 68% in 2024. Ether —the second largest cryptocurrency—jumped 5.9% to $3,642, while Solana fell 1.1%, Dogecoin dropped 4.9%, Cardano was up 2.4% and Shiba Inu edged 0.3% higher.

周二早盘交易中，比特币在过去 24 小时内下跌 0.2%，至 70,504 美元，仍低于昨天的高点 72,694 美元。全球最大的加密资产已经度过了好几天，从周五的 66,000 美元左右上涨，今年的表现甚至更好 - 2024 年上涨了 68%。第二大加密货币 Ether 上涨 5.9% 至 3,642 美元，而 Solana 下跌 1.1%，狗狗币下跌 4.9%，卡尔达诺上涨 2.4%，柴犬小幅上涨 0.3%。

Deutsche Bank analysts Marion Laboure and Cassidy Ainsworth-Grace said there were five reasons Bitcoin prices could remain high—the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, expectations of Ethereum spot ETF approvals, Bitcoin’s so-called halving event, central banks starting to cut rates, and potential regulatory changes.

德意志银行分析师 Marion Laboure 和 Cassidy Ainsworth-Grace 表示，比特币价格可能保持高位有五个原因：现货比特币 ETF 的批准、以太坊现货 ETF 批准的预期、比特币所谓的减半事件、央行开始降息以及潜在的监管变化。

The halving—when the rate of new token issuance is cut in half—is likely to be the first of those catalysts and is expected to happen in the next two weeks.

减半（即新代币发行率减半）可能是第一个催化剂，预计将在未来两周内发生。

But central banks lowering borrowing costs is another catalyst on the horizon. They noted that Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2020, in response to the Covid-19 pandemic, supported the subsequent rally in cryptocurrency. 

但央行降低借贷成本是即将到来的另一个催化剂。他们指出，美联储在 2020 年为应对 Covid-19 大流行而降息，支持了加密货币随后的反弹。

“Our economists expect central banks in the G-7 economies will pivot to a more accommodative stance over the coming months. This is expected to fuel rising risk appetite and increased market liquidity. More investors will likely seek out higher-yielding alternative assets,” they said.

“我们的经济学家预计七国集团经济体的央行将在未来几个月转向更加宽松的立场。预计这将推动风险偏好上升并增加市场流动性。更多投资者可能会寻求收益更高的另类资产，”他们表示。

Write to Callum Keown at callum.keown@barrons.com

写信给 Callum Keown：callum.keown@barrons.com