2024 年比特币减半：“抛售新闻”的视角

At the heart of the crypto universe, Bitcoin continues to captivate, mystify, and sometimes even divide. As we approach the 2024 halving, a cyclically anticipated event that halves mining rewards, the crypto community is preparing for a major event. Often referred to as a potential “Sell the news,” this event could temporarily reshape the economic landscape of this digital currency. 

作为加密世界的核心，比特币继续着迷、神秘，有时甚至分裂。随着 2024 年减半的临近，这是一个周期性预期的事件，挖矿奖励将减半，加密社区正在为一场重大事件做准备。这一事件通常被称为潜在的“出售新闻”，可能会暂时重塑这种数字货币的经济格局。

The Bitcoin Halving Phenomenon: Between Anticipation and Reality

Bitcoin, by its ingenious design, aims to simulate a form of digital scarcity. Indeed, this process is orchestrated through a very specific mechanism, called the halving. This event, taking place approximately every four years, plays a crucial role in this ambition.

比特币减半现象：在预期与现实之间比特币通过其巧妙的设计，旨在模拟一种数字稀缺形式。事实上，这个过程是通过一种非常特殊的机制精心策划的，称为减半。这项活动大约每四年举办一次，在实现这一雄心壮志的过程中发挥着至关重要的作用。

This procedure cuts the rewards allocated to miners, historically going from 50 BTC to 25, then to 12.5 and finally to 6.25 during the last event in 2020. These moments have often been milestones of speculative increases, followed by more measured market realities. 

这一程序减少了分配给矿工的奖励，从历史上看，从 50 BTC 减少到 25 BTC，然后减少到 12.5，最后在 2020 年的最后一次活动中减少到 6.25。这些时刻往往是投机性增加的里程碑，随后是更加谨慎的市场现实。

According to Steno Research, the upcoming event could mirror the 2016 halving, where selling pressure increased up to four months after the event. 

据 Steno Research 称，即将到来的事件可能与 2016 年减半类似，事件发生后四个月内抛售压力增加。

This anticipation, coupled with the growing interest of Bitcoin ETF holders, sets an intriguing stage. The pre-halving rise in value, followed by a potential correction, suggests a dynamic of “buy the rumor, sell the news”. This deserves particular attention.

这种预期，加上比特币 ETF 持有者日益增长的兴趣，创造了一个有趣的阶段。减半前的价值上涨，随后可能出现修正，表明了一种“买谣言，卖新闻”的动态。这值得特别关注。

The Economics of Mining and Its Impact on the Market

The most tangible aspect of the halving affects the miners, these key actors in the Bitcoin network. With the reduction of rewards, the monetary value of their work experiences significant volatility. 

挖矿经济学及其对市场的影响减半最明显的方面会影响矿工，他们是比特币网络中的关键参与者。随着报酬的减少，他们工作的货币价值经历了显着的波动。

The record revenues of miners in recent months, juxtaposed with a Bitcoin price flirting with historical peaks, reveal a double edge. On one hand, the high value of post-halving issuance (estimated at $224,512 for daily mining rewards) offsets the reductions in reward. On the other hand, this same value encourages potential selling to cover operational costs, adding sell pressure post-halving.

近几个月来，矿工创纪录的收入，与接近历史峰值的比特币价格相比，揭示了双重优势。一方面，减半后发行量的高额（预计每日挖矿奖励为 224,512 美元）抵消了奖励的减少。另一方面，同样的价值鼓励潜在的抛售来支付运营成本，从而增加了减半后的抛售压力。

As miners revise their approaches and speculators swing between anticipation and realization, the halving event emerges as a potential catalyst for Bitcoin. This transition phase suggests a metamorphosis of the market.

随着矿商修改他们的方法，投机者在预期和实现之间摇摆不定，减半事件成为比特币的潜在催化剂。这个过渡阶段表明市场正在发生转变。

Later, when the selling pressure has faded, an opportunity arises: the initiation of a new era of prosperity. It will be propelled by a deeper reconsideration of Bitcoin’s intrinsic value, rooted in its programmed scarcity.

后来，当抛售压力消退时，机会就出现了：新繁荣时代的开始。它将通过对比特币内在价值的更深入的重新思考来推动，这种内在价值植根于其程序化的稀缺性。

Analysts, such as Mads Eberhardt from Steno and Alex Wice, suggest a bullish dynamic in the longer term, positing that the true impact of the halving will manifest once initial market adjustments and “weak hands” have cleared out.

Steno 的 Mads Eberhardt 和 Alex Wice 等分析师认为，长期看涨动态，认为一旦最初的市场调整和“弱势手”被清除，减半的真正影响就会显现出来。

The 2024 halving promises to be a fascinating chapter in Bitcoin’s saga.

2024 年减半有望成为比特币传奇中迷人的一章。

Beyond short-term fluctuations, this event stands out. It highlights the constant solidness and innovation of the crypto ecosystem. Market reactions prove it. So do miners’ adjustments. Interest in Web3 is growing. Together, these elements underline the dynamics and resilience of the sector, even in the face of challenges.

除了短期波动之外，这一事件也很引人注目。它凸显了加密生态系统的不断坚固和创新。市场反应证明了这一点。矿工的调整也是如此。人们对 Web3 的兴趣与日俱增。这些因素共同凸显了该行业即使面临挑战也充满活力和韧性。

Evans S.

Fasciné par le bitcoin depuis 2017, Evariste n'a cessé de se documenter sur le sujet. Si son premier intérêt s'est porté sur le trading, il essaie désormais activement d’appréhender toutes les avancées centrées sur les cryptomonnaies. En tant que rédacteur, il aspire à fournir en permanence un travail de haute qualité qui reflète l'état du secteur dans son ensemble.

点击此处加入“阅读赚钱”，将您对加密货币的热情转化为奖励！AA复制链接Evans S.Evariste 自 2017 年以来就对比特币着迷，一直在继续研究该主题。如果说他的首要兴趣是交易，那么他现在正在积极尝试了解以加密货币为中心的所有进步。作为一名编辑，他渴望不断提供反映整个行业状况的高质量作品。