比特币减半迫在眉睫，专家警告事后经济低迷

摩根大通预测，比特币将于 4 月 19 日至 20 日减半，比特币可能会出现暴跌。传统上，减半事件会将新比特币的供应量减少一半，但摩根大通对比特币期货的分析表明，该加密货币目前处于超买区域。

Halving Day Approaches, Experts Predict Bitcoin Downturn

减半日临近，专家预测比特币低迷

The highly anticipated Bitcoin halving event, scheduled for April 19-20, is imminent. Yet, despite widespread expectations of a bullish surge, JPMorgan analysts warn that a slump may follow the halving. Their analysis suggests that the cryptocurrency is overbought and the market may be overestimating the positive impact of the event.

定于 4 月 19 日至 20 日举行的备受期待的比特币减半事件即将到来。然而，尽管人们普遍预期股市将上涨，但摩根大通分析师警告称，减半后可能会出现暴跌。他们的分析表明，加密货币已经超买，市场可能高估了该事件的积极影响。

Oversupply and Diminished Demand

供应过剩和需求减少

JPMorgan's analysis of Bitcoin futures indicates that the cryptocurrency has entered overbought territory, with price indicators signaling a correction. Despite expectations that spot ETFs will continue to drive demand, the bank believes this optimism is inflated. The lack of a significant increase in venture capital funding for cryptocurrencies is seen as a further headwind, suggesting that the recovery in crypto markets may not be sustainable.

摩根大通对比特币期货的分析表明，该加密货币已进入超买区域，价格指标预示着回调。尽管预计现货 ETF 将继续推动需求，但该行认为这种乐观情绪有些夸大。加密货币风险投资资金缺乏大幅增加被视为进一步的阻力，表明加密货币市场的复苏可能不可持续。

Mining Challenges and Industry Consolidation

采矿挑战和行业整合

The halving will reduce the rewards miners receive for verifying Bitcoin transactions by 50%. This reduction in revenue will likely pressure mining companies, forcing them to relocate to regions with lower energy costs or consolidate with larger publicly traded entities. Analysts anticipate that some mining firms may even diversify into alternative regions, such as Latin America or Africa, to maximize the efficiency of their less profitable mining assets.

减半将使矿工验证比特币交易获得的奖励减少 50%。收入的减少可能会给矿业公司带来压力，迫使它们搬迁到能源成本较低的地区或与更大的上市实体合并。分析师预计，一些矿业公司甚至可能向拉丁美洲或非洲等其他地区进行多元化经营，以最大限度地提高利润较低的矿业资产的效率。

Reasons for Predicted Downturn

预测经济衰退的原因

JPMorgan cites several reasons for its bearish outlook on Bitcoin's post-halving performance:

摩根大通列举了对比特币减半后表现的悲观前景的几个原因：

• Overbought market conditions
• Limited venture capital funding
• Oversupply of Bitcoin entering circulation
• Diminished demand for spot ETFs
• Miner revenue reduction and industry consolidation

Long-Term Outlook

市场超买状况风险投资资金有限进入流通的比特币供应过剩现货 ETF 需求减少矿工收入减少和行业整合长期展望

While the analysts predict a downward trend in Bitcoin prices immediately following the halving, they acknowledge that the long-term impact remains uncertain. The halving has historically triggered significant crypto market rallies, and the fundamental factors driving Bitcoin's value, such as its scarcity and immutable blockchain, are likely to remain in place.

尽管分析师预测减半后比特币价格将立即下跌，但他们承认长期影响仍然不确定。从历史上看，减半引发了加密货币市场的大幅反弹，而推动比特币价值的基本因素，例如其稀缺性和不可变的区块链，可能会继续存在。

Investor Considerations

投资者考虑因素

Investors considering trading Bitcoin should carefully consider the potential risks highlighted by JPMorgan's analysis. The overbought market conditions and anticipated supply-demand imbalances suggest that a correction may be likely. It is prudent to exercise caution and evaluate the market carefully before making investment decisions.

考虑交易比特币的投资者应仔细考虑摩根大通分析中强调的潜在风险。超买的市场状况和预期的供需失衡表明可能会出现调整。在做出投资决定之前，应谨慎行事并仔细评估市场。