比特币减半对交易的影响预计将消退

比特币减半（即矿工区块奖励的预定减少）预计将于本周五发生，这引发了人们对其对 Coinbase 和 Robinhood 等平台交易活动影响的猜测。然而，分析师约翰·托达罗（John Todaro）预测交易量将适度增加，因为地缘政治紧张局势和利率波动等其他因素可能会对比特币价格和加密货币交易产生更大影响。

Fading Impact of Bitcoin Halving on Trading Activity

比特币减半对交易活动的影响逐渐减弱

Despite the anticipation surrounding the upcoming Bitcoin halving event, industry analysts predict a subdued impact on trading activity on platforms such as Coinbase and Robinhood.

尽管人们对即将到来的比特币减半事件充满期待，但行业分析师预测，对 Coinbase 和 Robinhood 等平台上的交易活动的影响较小。

According to Needham & Co. analyst John Todaro, previous halvings have not led to significant trading volume increases. In May 2020, during the last halving, Coinbase witnessed only a modest uptick.

Needham & Co. 分析师约翰·托达罗 (John Todaro) 表示，之前的减半并未导致交易量大幅增加。 2020 年 5 月，在上一次减半期间，Coinbase 仅出现小幅上涨。

In a recent research note, Todaro anticipates a modest increase in volume this week but believes it will be overshadowed by more impactful events.

在最近的一份研究报告中，托达罗预计本周交易量将略有增加，但相信它会被更具影响力的事件所掩盖。

"We expect a modest bump in volume this week, but believe it will be overshadowed by other high volume events," Todaro stated.

托达罗表示：“我们预计本周成交量将略有增加，但相信它会被其他大量活动所掩盖。”

Potential market movers, including the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict, rising interest rates, and global economic volatility, are likely to exert a greater influence on Bitcoin prices and trading volume than the halving itself.

潜在的市场推动因素，包括持续的以色列-伊朗冲突、利率上升和全球经济波动，可能对比特币价格和交易量产生比减半本身更大的影响。

Robinhood declined to comment, while Coinbase referred inquiries to research authored by their team. The Coinbase team cautioned against drawing conclusions based solely on past halving events and emphasized the potential for long-term price drivers.

Robinhood 拒绝置评，而 Coinbase 将调查转交给他们团队撰写的研究。 Coinbase 团队警告不要仅根据过去的减半事件得出结论，并强调长期价格驱动因素的潜力。

Despite the muted expectations, Bitcoin's price has risen 47% this year, supported by the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in January. However, the cryptocurrency's recent dip below $60,000 following news of an Iranian attack on Israel underscores the sensitivity to geopolitical risks.

尽管预期不高，但在 1 月份推出现货比特币交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的支撑下，比特币价格今年已上涨 47%。然而，在伊朗袭击以色列的消息传出后，加密货币近期跌破 60,000 美元，凸显了对地缘政治风险的敏感性。

The halving event, scheduled for Friday, involves a reduction in the issuance of new Bitcoins. Theoretically, this could lead to price appreciation if demand remains constant. However, evidence suggests that the halving itself may not be the sole driver of previous price increases.

定于周五举行的减半活动涉及新比特币发行量的减少。理论上，如果需求保持不变，这可能会导致价格上涨。然而，有证据表明，减半本身可能并不是之前价格上涨的唯一驱动因素。

Todaro notes that the 2020 halving coincided with the depths of the COVID-19 pandemic, when unprecedented government stimulus measures and the proliferation of blockchain projects contributed to asset price gains.

Todaro 指出，2020 年减半恰逢 COVID-19 大流行的最严重时期，当时史无前例的政府刺激措施和区块链项目的激增推动了资产价格上涨。

With the approval of Bitcoin ETFs now behind us, other events, such as signs of imminent interest rate cuts, may prove more significant for trading volumes this year. Therefore, the halving is unlikely to be a major catalyst for Coinbase and Robinhood.

随着比特币 ETF 的批准现已过去，其他事件（例如即将降息的迹象）可能对今年的交易量更为重要。因此，减半不太可能成为 Coinbase 和 Robinhood 的主要催化剂。