比特币减半事件凸显稀缺性，暗示看涨

Ark Invest 的 Yassine Elmandjra 表示，比特币减半事件已使供应增长放缓至低于黄金，凸显其稀缺性和可预测的货币政策。分析师认为，根据之前减半后的历史价格涨幅，可能会出现反弹，事件发生后 12 个月内平均涨幅约为 3,108%。

Bitcoin: The Halving Event and Its Potential Impact

比特币：减半事件及其潜在影响

April 12, 2022

2022 年 4 月 12 日

Following the highly anticipated halving event in Bitcoin's mining process, renowned investment firm Ark Invest has weighed in on its potential implications for the cryptocurrency.

在比特币挖矿过程中备受期待的减半事件之后，著名投资公司 Ark Invest 对其对加密货币的潜在影响进行了权衡。

Halving: A Declining Supply Growth

减半：供应增长下降

Yassine Elmandjra, Director of Digital Assets at Ark, elucidated the mechanics of Bitcoin's halving. Every four years, approximately, the block reward for Bitcoin miners is halved. This mechanism ensures a predictable monetary policy, limiting the supply growth of Bitcoin.

Ark数字资产总监Yassine Elmandjra阐述了比特币减半的机制。大约每四年，比特币矿工的区块奖励就会减半。这种机制确保了货币政策的可预测性，限制了比特币的供应增长。

"Bitcoin's supply growth has now fallen below that of gold, estimated to be 1.7% in 2023," said Elmandjra. "This halving event emphasizes Bitcoin's role as a scarce asset, with its total supply capped at 21 million."

Elmandjra 表示：“比特币的供应增长现已低于黄金，预计 2023 年将增长 1.7%。” “这次减半事件强调了比特币作为稀缺资产的作用，其总供应量上限为 2100 万。”

Historical Performance Post-Halving

减半后的历史表现

Elmandjra highlighted the historical correlation between Bitcoin's halvings and subsequent rallies. Since its inception in 2009, Bitcoin has experienced three halving events, each followed by significant price appreciation.

Elmandjra 强调了比特币减半和随后反弹之间的历史相关性。自2009年诞生以来，比特币经历了三次减半事件，每次减半后价格都会大幅上涨。

"In the 12 months following the previous three halvings, Bitcoin's price rose by an average of 3,108%, ranging from 285% to 8,478.2%," he noted.

“在前三次减半后的 12 个月里，比特币的价格平均上涨了 3,108%，涨幅从 285% 到 8,478.2%，”他指出。

Current Market Sentiment

当前市场情绪

Despite the anticipation leading up to the halving event, Bitcoin's price action has been relatively subdued since. However, Ark's analysis suggests that a rally may be imminent.

尽管人们对减半事件有所预期，但比特币的价格走势自此以来一直相对疲软。然而，Ark 的分析表明，反弹可能即将到来。

"Bitcoin's halving has historically coincided with extended bull market runs," said Elmandjra. "The market's current weakness could be a temporary setback, potentially setting the stage for a renewed surge in the coming months."

Elmandjra 表示：“从历史上看，比特币减半与牛市持续延伸同时发生。” “市场目前的疲软可能只是暂时的挫折，可能为未来几个月的新一轮上涨奠定基础。”

Bitcoin vs. Gold

比特币与黄金

Ark's analysis also compares Bitcoin's supply growth to that of gold. Elmandjra emphasized that Bitcoin's supply growth is now lower than that of gold, suggesting its diminishing inflationary nature.

Ark 的分析还将比特币的供应增长与黄金的供应增长进行了比较。 Elmandjra 强调，比特币的供应增长目前低于黄金，表明其通胀性质正在减弱。

"Central banks can adjust the supply growth of sovereign currencies at will," said Elmandjra. "In contrast, Bitcoin's supply growth is predetermined, ensuring that its total supply never exceeds its 21 million cap."

“央行可以随意调整主权货币的供应增长，”Elmandjra 表示。 “相比之下，比特币的供应增长是预先确定的，确保其总供应量永远不会超过 2100 万的上限。”

Expert Opinions

专家意见

While Ark Invest's analysis provides a positive outlook for Bitcoin, not all experts share this optimism. Peter Schiff, a prominent gold advocate, has consistently dismissed Bitcoin as a viable form of "digital gold."

虽然 Ark Invest 的分析为比特币提供了积极的前景，但并非所有专家都持这种乐观态度。著名的黄金倡导者彼得·希夫（Peter Schiff）一直认为比特币是一种可行的“数字黄金”形式。

"Bitcoin's value is purely speculative, unlike gold, which has intrinsic value," said Schiff. "The halving event will not change that fundamental difference."

“比特币的价值纯粹是投机性的，与具有内在价值的黄金不同，”希夫说。 “减半事件不会改变这种根本差异。”

Current Market Conditions

目前的市场状况

As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $66,145.63, showing little movement over the past 24 hours. The cryptocurrency has faced headwinds in recent weeks due to concerns over rising inflation and potential interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.

截至撰写本文时，比特币交易价格为 66,145.63 美元，在过去 24 小时内几乎没有变动。由于对通胀上升和美联储可能加息的担忧，加密货币近几周面临阻力。

Should the Fed reconsider its rate hike strategy in the future, it could reignite risk-on sentiment and potentially benefit Bitcoin and other volatile assets. However, the market remains highly uncertain, and investors should proceed with caution.

如果美联储未来重新考虑其加息策略，可能会重新引发风险情绪，并可能使比特币和其他波动性资产受益。不过，市场仍存在高度不确定性，投资者应谨慎行事。