比特币减半事件临近：反弹潜力，但预期有所缓和

April is a big month for the crypto world. The next Bitcoin (BTC -2.72%) halving event is happening later this month, and that could lead to a rally in the price of the world's leading cryptocurrency. After already hitting new highs earlier this year, how much higher could Bitcoin go this year? Below, I'll look at how it has performed after previous halving events and what investors should expect.

四月对于加密世界来说是一个重要的月份。下一次比特币（BTC -2.72%）减半事件将于本月晚些时候发生，这可能会导致全球领先加密货币的价格上涨。在今年早些时候创下新高之后，比特币今年还能上涨多少？下面，我将看看它在之前的减半事件之后的表现以及投资者应该期待什么。

Investors earned big returns after previous halving events

In a halving event, the rewards Bitcoin miners receive are cut in half. This is to control the supply of Bitcoin and to ensure its scarcity; the total supply is to not exceed 21 million Bitcoins. Scarcity helps to keep the digital coin valuable. Halving events are expected to take place every four years; Bitcoin halved in 2020, 2016, and 2012. Here's a look at what happened to the price of Bitcoin after past halving events.

在之前的减半事件之后，投资者获得了丰厚的回报在减半事件中，比特币矿工获得的奖励减少了一半。这是为了控制比特币的供应并确保其稀缺性；比特币的总供应量不超过2100万个。稀缺性有助于保持数字货币的价值。减半事件预计每四年发生一次；比特币曾于 2020 年、2016 年和 2012 年减半。以下是过去减半事件后比特币价格发生的变化。

Data sources: Google Finance, Investing.com

数据来源：谷歌财经、Investing.com

In every previous halving event, investors who bought shares of Bitcoin and held on for multiple months would have achieved some great returns. Here's another table showing what those returns would look like in percentages.

在之前的每次减半事件中，购买比特币股票并持有几个月的投资者都会获得丰厚的回报。这是另一个表格，显示了这些回报的百分比。

Calculations by author.

作者的计算。

What should investors expect this year after Bitcoin halves again?

The next Bitcoin halving event is expected to take place on April 20. Based on how the cryptocurrency has performed in the past, it appears likely that it will rise again. The question, however, is how much of a return investors should expect.

比特币再次减半后，投资者今年应该期待什么？下一次比特币减半事件预计将于 4 月 20 日发生。根据加密货币过去的表现，它很可能会再次上涨。然而，问题是投资者应该期望多少回报。

Although the returns after 300 days in previous halving events imply that the cryptocurrency could soar, it's important not to forget some important context.

尽管之前的减半事件中 300 天后的回报意味着加密货币可能会飙升，但重要的是不要忘记一些重要的背景。

• In 2012, Bitcoin's low valuation made it easier for the cryptocurrency to surge in value. The halving event was the first time it happened and helped shine a spotlight on the up-and-coming digital currency.
• In 2016, the initial returns were relatively underwhelming. And the price of Bitcoin back then was just a small fraction of its price is today.
• In 2020, meme stocks and risky investments were rallying as there was an influx of money into the economy due to COVID-19 relief programs. Many people used these funds to invest in stocks and crypto, leading to high valuations. And Bitcoin then crashed in 2022, as the markets cooled off.

This time around, going into the halving event, Bitcoin is near its all-time highs. And the stock market has been at record levels as well. There's the risk that there may already be too much optimism priced into Bitcoin and that a halving event may not result in similar gains as in the past for investors. While history does suggest the cryptocurrency could double, given how hot the markets have been this year and Bitcoin's already high valuation, investors should temper their expectations because context is important.

2012年，比特币的低估值使得该加密货币更容易升值。此次减半事件是首次发生，也让人们开始关注这种新兴的数字货币。2016年，最初的回报相对平淡。当时的比特币价格只是现在价格的一小部分。 2020 年，由于 COVID-19 救助计划，大量资金涌入经济，迷因股票和风险投资正在上涨。许多人用这些资金投资股票和加密货币，从而导致高估值。随着市场降温，比特币在 2022 年崩盘。这一次，进入减半事件，比特币接近历史高点。股市也一直处于创纪录的水平。存在的风险是，比特币定价可能已经过于乐观，减半事件可能不会为投资者带来与过去类似的收益。尽管历史确实表明加密货币可能会翻一番，但考虑到今年市场的火热程度以及比特币已经很高的估值，投资者应该降低预期，因为背景很重要。

Should you buy Bitcoin before the next halving event?

A halving event may seem like a surefire catalyst for Bitcoin's price to rise higher, but it probably shouldn't be. Investors know that it is coming, so arguably it should be priced into the value of the cryptocurrency already. In the past, the cryptocurrency was priced much lower than it is today and in 2020 and 2021, the influx of COVID relief money gave people more funds to invest. Nowadays, budgets are tighter and economic conditions are far from ideal.

你应该在下一次减半事件之前购买比特币吗？减半事件似乎是比特币价格上涨的必然催化剂，但事实可能并非如此。投资者知道它即将到来，因此可以说它应该已经计入加密货币的价值中。过去，加密货币的价格远低于现在，而在 2020 年和 2021 年，新冠疫情救助资金的涌入给了人们更多的资金进行投资。如今，预算更加紧张，经济状况也远非理想。

Bitcoin's price may very well rise after the halving event later this month but investors should be careful not to assume that just because it has doubled in the past, it will do so again this year. This remains an incredibly risky asset to hold in your portfolio and you should only consider investing in it if you're comfortable with the risk and the uncertainty that comes with Bitcoin. Buying the cryptocurrency before the next halving event is by no means a guarantee of great returns.

在本月晚些时候的减半事件之后，比特币的价格很可能会上涨，但投资者应该小心，不要仅仅因为它在过去翻了一番，就认为今年它会再次上涨。在您的投资组合中，这仍然是一项风险极高的资产，只有当您对比特币带来的风险和不确定性感到满意时，您才应该考虑投资它。在下一次减半事件之前购买加密货币并不能保证获得丰厚的回报。