比特币减半周期结束？克鲁格表示比特币正在进入一个新的“超级周期”

比特币 (BTC) 的交易价格继续比历史最高点低约 14%，但根据著名经济学家和交易员 Alex Krüger 的说法，这种数字资产还远未达到顶峰。

renowned economist and trader Alex Krüger shares his bullish outlook on Bitcoin's future price trajectory. Speaking on the Unchained podcast, Krüger suggests that BTC still has a lot of room to grow and that that traditional four-year halving cycles may no longer be the best way to understand Bitcoin's price action.

著名经济学家和交易员 Alex Krüger 分享了他对比特币未来价格轨迹的乐观展望。克鲁格在 Unchained 播客上表示，比特币仍有很大的增长空间，传统的四年减半周期可能不再是理解比特币价格走势的最佳方式。

According to Krüger, Bitcoin could be entering a "supercycle," a long-term market cycle that is not bound by the same predictable peaks and troughs as previous cycles. He believes that the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 has shifted the way the market behaves, making Bitcoin less dependent on the halving cycles that have historically driven its price growth.

克鲁格认为，比特币可能正在进入一个“超级周期”，这是一个长期的市场周期，不受与之前周期相同的可预测的高峰和低谷的约束。他认为，2024 年 1 月现货比特币 ETF 的批准改变了市场行为方式，使比特币减少了对历史上推动其价格增长的减半周期的依赖。

Krüger highlights that the institutionalization of Bitcoin through ETFs has changed the market dynamics, allowing traditional institutional investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin. This, in turn, increases overall demand for the cryptocurrency and creates a closer correlation between Bitcoin and traditional assets like equities.

Krüger 强调，比特币通过 ETF 的制度化改变了市场动态，使传统机构投资者能够获得比特币的投资。这反过来又增加了对加密货币的总体需求，并在比特币和股票等传统资产之间建立了更紧密的相关性。

In this scenario, Bitcoin's price could still experience steady growth over time, but it might not follow the usual halving-driven price patterns. The supercycle model suggests that Bitcoin could face smaller, shorter corrections rather than the long, deep bear markets often seen in the past. This shift would allow for more sustainable price movements, with gradual price appreciation and relatively brief periods of consolidation.

在这种情况下，比特币的价格仍可能随着时间的推移稳步增长，但可能不会遵循通常的减半驱动的价格模式。超级周期模型表明，比特币可能面临更小、更短的调整，而不是过去经常出现的长期、深度的熊市。这种转变将使价格走势更加可持续，价格逐步升值，盘整期相对较短。

Krüger concludes that a supercycle does not imply that Bitcoin's price will only go up, but rather that any corrections in its price will be shorter and less severe, especially as long as broader markets and the global economy perform well. With more institutional interest and ETFs pushing the market forward, Krüger predicts that the next few years will see smaller price pullbacks, followed by continued price increases, in cycles that are less volatile compared to traditional halving-driven patterns.

克鲁格的结论是，超级周期并不意味着比特币的价格只会上涨，而是意味着其价格的任何调整都会更短且不那么严重，特别是只要更广泛的市场和全球经济表现良好。克鲁格预测，随着越来越多的机构兴趣和 ETF 推动市场向前发展，未来几年价格将出现较小的回调，随后价格将持续上涨，与传统的减半驱动模式相比，其周期波动性较小。

Bitcoin's current trading price of $93,134 reflects a minor dip of about 10% from its high of $102,000 in 2025. Despite the minor correction, Krüger remains optimistic about Bitcoin's future growth potential. He believes that the financial system's growing adoption of Bitcoin as an asset class will continue to propel the cryptocurrency to new highs.

比特币目前的交易价格为 93,134 美元，较 2025 年 102,000 美元的高点小幅下跌约 10%。尽管出现小幅调整，克鲁格仍对比特币未来的增长潜力持乐观态度。他认为，金融体系越来越多地采用比特币作为一种资产类别，将继续推动加密货币再创新高。