比特币减半临近：专家预计市场波动，长期乐观

Crypto.com 首席执行官 Kris Marszalek 预测，比特币减半将引发短期波动，但最终有利于价格。尽管近期价格出现波动，但由于大量资金流入现货比特币 ETF，比特币的市场主导地位已达到 55% 的三年来新高。然而，Marszalek 预计，“买谣言，卖新闻”交易会带来抛售压力，可能导致面临更高运营成本的矿商在减半后抛售。

Bitcoin Nears Halving Event: Experts Predict Market Impact and Long-Term Optimism

比特币临近减半事件：专家预测市场影响和长期乐观

Singapore, April 2024 - With just four days remaining until the highly anticipated fourth Bitcoin halving event, experts weigh in on its potential impact on the cryptocurrency market. Crypto.com CEO Kris Marszalek anticipates a period of price volatility in the short term but remains bullish about Bitcoin's long-term prospects.

新加坡，2024 年 4 月 - 距离备受期待的第四次比特币减半事件仅剩四天，专家们正在权衡其对加密货币市场的潜在影响。 Crypto.com 首席执行官 Kris Marszalek 预计短期内价格将出现波动，但仍看好比特币的长期前景。

Pre-Halving Sell-Off

减半前的抛售

In the lead-up to the event, Bitcoin's price has faced significant selling pressure. On Monday, it rallied briefly to $67,000 following news of spot Bitcoin ETFs approval in Hong Kong. However, rising US Treasury yields dampened market sentiment, driving the price down to $62,500.

在此事件发生之前，比特币的价格面临着巨大的抛售压力。周一，在香港批准现货比特币 ETF 的消息传出后，比特币短暂上涨至 67,000 美元。然而，美国国债收益率上升打压了市场情绪，导致金价跌至 62,500 美元。

Marszalek attributes the recent sell-off to "buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news" trading, a typical market pattern where traders take profits after a highly anticipated event. He emphasizes that this short-term volatility will likely be outweighed by the positive impact of the halving in the long run.

马萨莱克将最近的抛售归因于“买谣言，卖新闻”交易，这是一种典型的市场模式，交易者在备受期待的事件发生后获利了结。他强调，从长期来看，减半的积极影响可能会抵消这种短期波动。

Bitcoin Halving Mechanics

比特币减半机制

The upcoming halving event will reduce the mining rewards for Bitcoin miners by half, posing a financial challenge for them. Miners are expected to sell a substantial amount of BTC post-halving to cover operational costs. Estimates indicate that they may dump up to $5 billion worth of BTC.

即将到来的减半事件将使比特币矿工的挖矿奖励减少一半，给他们带来财务挑战。预计矿商将在减半后出售大量比特币以支付运营成本。据估计，他们可能会抛售价值高达 50 亿美元的比特币。

In anticipation of this, Bitcoin miners have been accumulating BTC and upgrading their equipment for months. They aim to mitigate the impact of reduced mining rewards and capitalize on the increased computational requirements after the halving.

考虑到这一点，比特币矿工几个月来一直在积累比特币并升级他们的设备。他们的目标是减轻挖矿奖励减少的影响，并利用减半后增加的计算需求。

Bitcoin Market Dominance

比特币市场主导地位

Despite price fluctuations, Bitcoin continues to strengthen its dominance in the broader cryptocurrency market. Its market dominance has reached a three-year high of 55%, primarily due to strong inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs over the past three months.

尽管价格波动，比特币仍在继续加强其在更广泛的加密货币市场中的主导地位。其市场主导地位已达到三年来的最高点 55%，这主要是由于过去三个月大量资金流入现货比特币 ETF。

US spot ETFs from BlackRock Inc and Fidelity Investments have collectively gathered approximately $56 billion in assets. This achievement marks one of the most successful fund category launches in history.

贝莱德 (BlackRock Inc) 和富达投资 (Fidelity Investments) 的美国现货 ETF 总计聚集了约 560 亿美元的资产。这一成就标志着历史上最成功的基金类别推出之一。

Whale Accumulation

鲸鱼堆积

While Bitcoin ETF demand has stagnated in recent weeks, on-chain accumulation by Bitcoin whales remains high. This indicates that large investors continue to recognize Bitcoin's long-term value and are actively accumulating it.

尽管比特币 ETF 需求近几周停滞不前，但比特币鲸鱼的链上积累仍然很高。这表明大型投资者继续认可比特币的长期价值并正在积极积累。

Expert Outlook

专家展望

Marszalek predicts "pretty decent action" in Bitcoin's price within six months following the halving. He believes that the reduced supply and increased demand will drive its value higher.

Marszalek 预测比特币价格在减半后六个月内将出现“相当不错的走势”。他认为供应减少和需求增加将推高其价值。

Other experts share this optimism. Raoul Pal, a former Goldman Sachs executive, recently stated that Bitcoin's fair value is approximately $200,000, citing its scarcity and growing adoption.

其他专家也持同样的乐观态度。高盛前高管 Raoul Pal 最近表示，比特币的公允价值约为 20 万美元，理由是其稀缺性和不断增长的采用率。

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

免责声明：本文仅供参考，不应被视为财务建议。在做出任何投资决定之前，请咨询合格的财务顾问。