比特币、黄金和超级周期：我们正在重温咆哮的 50 年代吗？

由于对美元的不信任和潜在的“超级周期”的推动，比特币和黄金正在飙升。比特币是否有望取代黄金成为顶级避风港？

The financial world is buzzing with excitement as Bitcoin and gold are making headlines together. Are we witnessing the dawn of a new era where digital assets challenge gold's dominance as the ultimate safe haven? Let's dive in.

随着比特币和黄金一起成为头条新闻，金融界兴奋不已。我们是否正在见证数字资产挑战黄金作为终极避风港的主导地位的新时代的黎明？让我们深入了解一下。

Bitcoin and Gold: A Budding Bromance

比特币和黄金：萌芽中的兄弟情

Lately, Bitcoin and gold have been vibing together, both experiencing significant rallies. This isn't just a coincidence; it's a sign of growing distrust in the U.S. dollar and a broader shift towards hard assets. Investors are seeking refuge from macroeconomic uncertainty, and both Bitcoin and gold are benefiting.

最近，比特币和黄金一起波动，都经历了大幅反弹。这不仅仅是巧合；这是对美元日益不信任以及更广泛转向硬资产的迹象。投资者正在寻求躲避宏观经济不确定性的避难所，比特币和黄金都受益。

Bitcoin has broken out of its consolidation phase, gaining nearly 25% recently, mirroring gold's steady climb. This correlation suggests that investors are prepping for potential economic turbulence.

比特币已经突破盘整阶段，最近上涨了近 25%，与黄金的稳步攀升遥相呼应。这种相关性表明投资者正在为潜在的经济动荡做好准备。

Is Bitcoin the New Gold?

比特币是新黄金吗？

Some analysts believe Bitcoin could eventually replace gold as the primary safe haven asset. Historically, capital tends to rotate from gold into Bitcoin when gold peaks. This pattern was observed in 2017 and 2020, and charts suggest a similar setup for 2025. With gold surging above $2,500, Bitcoin's price structure aligns with the start of previous bull cycles, indicating a potential shift of liquidity towards digital assets.

一些分析师认为，比特币最终可能取代黄金成为主要的避险资产。从历史上看，当金价见顶时，资本往往会从黄金转向比特币。这种模式在 2017 年和 2020 年就出现过，图表显示 2025 年也会出现类似的情况。随着金价飙升至 2,500 美元以上，比特币的价格结构与之前牛市周期的开始一致，表明流动性可能转向数字资产。

The Supercycle Thesis

超级循环论文

Veteran macro analyst Mel Mattison argues that we're in an "everything, everywhere, all at once" bull market, reminiscent of the 1950s. This rally encompasses bonds, stocks, gold, Bitcoin, and real estate, driven by a multi-decade interest-rate cycle and a global debasement trade. Mattison sees Bitcoin as digital gold, poised to absorb monetary premium as the fiat system adapts to rising debt and geopolitical shifts.

资深宏观分析师梅尔·马蒂森 (Mel Mattison) 认为，我们正处于“一切、无处不在、同时发生”的牛市，让人想起 20 世纪 50 年代。在数十年的利率周期和全球贬值贸易的推动下，债券、股票、黄金、比特币和房地产都出现了上涨。马蒂森将比特币视为数字黄金，随着法定货币系统适应不断上升的债务和地缘政治变化，它有望吸收货币溢价。

He expects gold to reach $20,000 in the next 10 to 15 years, with Bitcoin sharing in that secular bid. Mattison's supercycle call rests on the Federal Reserve's mandate to maintain moderate long-term interest rates, suggesting potential yield-curve control measures that would support assets with monetary characteristics.

他预计金价将在未来 10 到 15 年内达到 20,000 美元，比特币也将参与这一长期上涨。马蒂森的超级周期呼吁基于美联储维持适度长期利率的使命，暗示潜在的收益率曲线控制措施将支持具有货币特征的资产。

A Word of Caution

警告

While the outlook is optimistic, some analysts caution that gold's surge is partly a momentum trade, which could fizzle out. Nic Puckrin from The Coin Bureau suggests that attention may turn to alternatives like Bitcoin and tokenized assets. Despite differing opinions, the underlying trend points towards diversification into assets that can weather economic storms.

尽管前景乐观，但一些分析师警告称，金价飙升在一定程度上是动量交易，可能会失败。 The Coin Bureau 的 Nic Puckrin 表示，人们的注意力可能会转向比特币和代币化资产等替代品。尽管存在不同意见，但基本趋势表明资产多元化，能够抵御经济风暴。

Final Thoughts: Buckle Up!

最后的想法：系好安全带！

Whether Bitcoin will completely replace gold remains to be seen, but the trend is undeniable. Both assets are benefiting from a confluence of factors, including economic uncertainty and distrust in traditional currencies. As we navigate this exciting era, keep an eye on both Bitcoin and gold – they might just be your best friends in the financial jungle. So, grab your popcorn and enjoy the show! It’s gonna be a wild ride!

比特币是否会完全取代黄金还有待观察，但趋势是不可否认的。这两种资产都受益于多种因素，包括经济不确定性和对传统货币的不信任。当我们穿越这个激动人心的时代时，请密切关注比特币和黄金——它们可能是您在金融丛林中最好的朋友。所以，拿起你的爆米花，享受这场表演吧！这将是一次疯狂的旅程！